Analysis of Recent FTSE 100 Trends: Impacts of Retailer Earnings and GBP Exchange Rate

Based on the latest market data analysis, here is a detailed analytical report for you.

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As of January 8, 2026, the FTSE 100 showed a

[0]. Looking at the data from the past 5 trading days:

Date	Closing Price	Daily Change	Trading Volume
2026-01-08	10,015.35	-0.33%	-
2026-01-07	10,048.21	-0.74%	704.30M
2026-01-06	10,122.73	+1.18%	709.98M
2026-01-05	10,004.57	+0.54%	713.16M
2026-01-02	9,951.14	+0.20%	611.48M

The index retreated for consecutive sessions after hitting a near-term high of 10,158 on January 6, with a cumulative decline of approximately 107 points (-1.07%) over two days[1][2].

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1. Next (NXT)
   — The most standout performer[3]
   • In the 9 weeks ending December 27, full-price sales rose 11% year-over-year, significantly exceeding the 7% guidance
   • UK sales grew 5.9% (guidance 4.1%), international sales grew 38% (guidance 24%)
   • Raised full-year pre-tax profit guidance for the fifth time
     to £1.15 billion, representing a 14% year-over-year increase
   • Its stock price rose 3.2% on the day, leading the FTSE 100 components higher

2. Tesco (TSCO)
   • Four-week sales grew 4.3%, with total UK grocery sales reaching £13.8 billion (+3.8% YoY)
   • However, its stock price fell 5.17% today, indicating short-term profit-taking pressure in the market[2]

3. Sainsbury (SBR)
   • Sales grew 5.2%, delivering steady performance
   • Its stock price showed relatively moderate performance

4. Ocado (OCDO)
   — Top gainer in the FTSE 250[3]
   • UK grocery sales grew 15%, the highest among all retailers
   • Its stock price surged 6.9%

5. Marks & Spencer (MKS)
   • Its stock price rose 2.99%, showing positive performance

• Associated British Foods (ABF)
  : Stock price plummeted 11.62%, becoming the biggest loser in the FTSE 100
• Diageo
  : Fell 67 pence to 1,577 pence, with the consumer goods sector coming under overall pressure

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Date	GBP/USD	Change
January 6	1.3553	+
January 7 Close	1.3500	-
January 7 Late Session	1.3472	-0.21%

GBP/USD pulled back from the weekly high of around 1.355 to 1.347, representing a decline of approximately 0.6%[4].

1. Positive Impacts (Beneficial for Exporters/Multinational Enterprises)
   :
   • GBP depreciation benefits FTSE 100 components with predominantly overseas revenues (approximately 70% of the index’s revenue comes from overseas)
   • Export-oriented enterprises such as luxury brands and multinational retailers receive a boost from currency translation

2. Negative Impacts (Pressure on Domestic Retailers)
   :
   • Domestic retail enterprises face rising import cost pressures
   • Consumer purchasing power is squeezed, dampening domestic demand
   • The UK 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.41% (down from 4.49%), indicating market caution over economic prospects[4]

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1. Momentum Shift
   : After breaking through the psychological threshold of 10,000 points, the index experienced a technical pullback, which aligns with the technical pattern of a pullback confirmation after a breakthrough

2. Sector Rotation
   :
   • Leading Sectors
     : BAE Systems (+5.92%), Rolls-Royce (+1.15%), real estate and homebuilders (Barratt Redrow +3.3%, Persimmon +2.8%)[2]
   • Lagging Sectors
     : Mining stocks (Fresnillo -5.1%, Antofagasta -4.4%), energy stocks (Shell -2.24%)[4]

3. Analyst Views
   [4]:
   • Russ Mould, analyst at AJ Bell, noted that the market pullback was affected by “news regarding Greenland’s fate and falling oil, gas, and precious metal prices”
   • Better-than-expected UK retail earnings provided support for the market, but macro uncertainties suppressed bullish momentum

Factor	Direction	Degree of Impact
Better-than-expected earnings from retailers like Next	Bullish	Medium-term support for the retail sector
Weakening GBP	Structural bullish for exporters	Bullish-leaning
Falling oil, gas, and metal prices	Bearish for the resources sector	Short-term pressure
Weak UK economic data	Bearish overall	Needs monitoring

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1. Short-Term
   : The index is highly likely to consolidate around the 10,000-point level; it is recommended to focus on the support level of 9,950 points and the resistance level of 10,120 points

2. Sector Selection
   :
   • Focus on leading retail stocks with better-than-expected earnings (Next, M&S)
   • Avoid mining and energy sectors dragged down by commodity prices
   • Exercise caution with the financial sector (NatWest is under pressure)

3. Exchange Rate Strategy
   : GBP is likely to remain range-bound in the short term; if the Bank of England maintains a dovish stance, the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1.34-1.36 USD

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[0] Investing.com - FTSE 100 Historical Price Data (https://uk.investing.com/indices/uk-100-historical-data)

[1] Yahoo Finance UK - FTSE 100 pauses below record as oil slide bites (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-retreats-amid-weak-172133321.html)

[2] Investing.com - FTSE 100 today market data (https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/best-entry-point-ubs-highlights-top-european-exchange-picks-following-2025-price-reversal-93CH-4443306)

[3] Morningstar - London Market Open: FTSE 100 extends gains after Next lifts forecast (https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/news/alliance-news/1767690492413319000/london-market-open-ftse-100-extends-gains-after-next-lifts-forecast)

[4] Yahoo Finance UK - FTSE 100 retreats amid weak metal and oil prices (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-retreats-amid-weak-172133321.html)