Analysis of AI-Driven Memory Chip Price Uptrend and Investment Value Assessment

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[1][2]

Factor	Detailed Analysis
Demand Side	AI server memory demand is 3-5 times that of regular servers; a single AI server is configured with 1.7TB of DRAM, representing a 240% increase compared to traditional servers (0.5TB)
Supply Side	HBM capacity expansion is squeezing traditional DRAM production capacity; new capacity added in 2026 is limited, with most to be released after 2027
Inventory Level	Supplier inventories have been rapidly depleted to historical lows, and shipment growth relies entirely on increases in wafer output
Price Forecast	TrendForce forecasts that server DRAM prices will rise over 60% QoQ in Q1 2026, with the full-year average DRAM price increasing 58% YoY[1][3]

[4][5]

Evaluation Dimension	Current Status
Cycle Phase	Transition phase from overheating to stagflation (expected in H2 2026)
Valuation Level	SK hynix has a P/E ratio of only 14.6x, Micron 32x, and Samsung 28.5x, all still low relative to earnings growth rates
Profit Trend	Memory manufacturers’ profitability has hit a historical high; SK hynix’s ROE reaches 41.7%, with an operating margin of 61.8%
Institutional Sentiment	80.6% of analysts have given Micron a “Buy” rating; Citigroup is bullish on the semiconductor equipment sector’s “Phase 2 Bull Market”[4][5]

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According to the latest market data, memory chip prices saw an unprecedented surge in 2025:

• DDR4 16Gb
  : Cumulative increase in 2025 reached
  1600%
  , far exceeding expectations[1][2]
• DDR5 16Gb
  : Cumulative increase in 2025 was approximately
  500%
  [1]
• NAND 512Gb
  : Cumulative increase in 2025 was approximately
  300%
  [1]
• DDR4 Server Memory
  : Rose 30%-70% in the past month, showing the abnormal phenomenon of “previous-generation product prices surpassing new-generation ones”[3]

• Samsung and SK hynix have proposed a 60%-70% price increase to customers[1][3]
• DDR4 contract prices are projected to surge 90%, while DDR5 prices are expected to rise over 40%[2]
• NAND flash memory is expected to see double-digit percentage growth

Samsung Electronics’ preliminary Q4 2025 results show[0][1]:

Indicator	Value	YoY Change
Operating Profit	₩20 trillion (approx. USD 13.8 billion)	+208%
Consolidated Sales	₩93 trillion	+23%
Quarterly Profit	Record high in the company’s history	-

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
P/E Ratio	28.54x	Medium
Return on Equity (ROE)	8.39%	Low
Net Profit Margin	10.38%	Low
Operating Margin	9.51%	Low

: Up since January 2024, with a 15.47% increase in the past 5 trading days[0]

As the global leader in the HBM market and the biggest beneficiary of AI memory demand, SK hynix has demonstrated remarkable resilience[0][2]:

Indicator	Value	Industry Status
Market Capitalization	₩521.98 trillion	World’s second-largest memory manufacturer
Stock Price (YTD 2026)	Up 11.67%	Leading the memory sector
1-Year Price Increase	288.29%	One of the best-performing tech stocks globally
P/E Ratio	14.62x	Lowest among major manufacturers
ROE	41.70%	Highest in the industry
Net Profit Margin	42.46%	Highest in the industry
Operating Margin	61.80%	Highest in the industry

[0]:

Scenario	Valuation	Upside from Current Price
Conservative Scenario	₩1,084,827	+43.5%
Base Case Scenario	₩957,234	+26.6%
Bullish Scenario	₩2,061,651	+172.7%
Probability-Weighted Valuation	₩1,367,904	+80.9%

As the world’s third-largest DRAM manufacturer, Micron Technology is benefiting from the memory chip price surge[0]:

Indicator	Value	YoY Change
Latest Fiscal Quarter Revenue	USD 13.64 billion	+57%
Net Profit	USD 5.482 billion	+58%
Net Profit Margin	28.15%	Significantly improved
Operating Margin	32.69%	Record high
1-Year Stock Price Increase	241.57%	Strong performance
Analyst Ratings	80.6% Buy	Institutional consensus is bullish

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[2][6]:

• Starting in 2025, over 85% of memory products are used in inference scenarios
• Context window expansion and agent AI are driving exponential growth in memory load
• Cloud service providers (Google, Meta, Microsoft, AWS) are projected to invest
  USD 600 billion
  in AI infrastructure in 2026[1][5]

Demand Type	AI Server	General-Purpose Server	Demand Multiple
Per-Unit DRAM Capacity	1.7TB	0.5TB	3.4x
Per-Unit NAND Capacity	15TB	4TB	3.75x
HBM Configuration	0.8TB	0TB	-
2026 DRAM Demand Growth Rate	+15%	+20%	-
2026 NAND Demand Growth Rate	+70%	+19%	3.7x

[1][2]

• DRAM demand is expected to grow
  26% YoY
  , while supply growth is around 20%, creating a noticeable gap
• NAND demand is projected to grow
  18%-23% YoY
  , with supply growth of approximately 13%-18%
• DRAM and NAND flash consumption in the server sector will surge
  40%-50% YoY

Manufacturer	2025 Capacity	Projected 2026 Capacity	Growth Rate
SK hynix	1,200 k units/month	1,800 k units/month	+50%
Samsung Electronics	800 k units/month	1,200 k units/month	+50%
Micron Technology	300 k units/month	600 k units/month	+100%

[2][6]

• HBM chips are much larger in size than standard DRAM and require additional logic substrates
• The same wafer produces far fewer bits of HBM than standard DRAM
• Suppliers prioritize production of high-margin HBM products, leading to persistent tight supply of traditional DRAM
• Samsung and SK hynix’s HBM capacity through the end of 2026 has been pre-booked by major AI customers[3]

Manufacturer	New Capacity Project	Projected Mass Production Time
Samsung	Pyeongtaek P4 Plant	Q3 2026
Samsung	Pyeongtaek P5 Plant	2028
SK hynix	Yongin Wafer Fab	After 2027
Micron	New Boise Plant	After 2027

Time	DRAM Supply Growth Rate	DRAM Demand Growth Rate	Supply-Demand Status
Q4 2025	~19%	~30%	Severe supply shortage
Q1 2026	~20%	~32%	Persistently tight
Full-Year 2026	~20%	~26%	Minor gap
2027	Dependent on expansion progress	Growth rate slowing	Monitor overcapacity risk

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[5]

Year	Market Size	YoY Growth Rate	Drivers
2024	USD 650 billion	+20%	AI initial stage, memory recovery
2025E	USD 772.2 billion	+22.5%	Full-scale AI boom
2026E	USD 975.5 billion	+26.3%	Peak of the super cycle
2030E	~USD 1 trillion	-	Mature stage

Global semiconductor industry revenue exceeded USD 200 billion for the first time in Q3 2025, with a 14.5% QoQ increase; Omdia expects full-year revenue to surpass USD 800 billion[5]

Indicator	Samsung Electronics	SK hynix	Micron Technology	Investment Implications
1-Year Stock Price Increase	142%	288%	242%	SK hynix has the highest elasticity
P/E Ratio	28.5x	14.6x	32.1x	SK hynix has the lowest valuation
P/B Ratio	2.41x	5.22x	6.50x	Micron has the strongest growth potential
ROE	8.39%	41.7%	22.4%	SK hynix has the highest returns
Net Profit Margin	10.4%	42.5%	28.2%	SK hynix has the strongest profitability
Operating Margin	9.5%	61.8%	32.7%	SK hynix is the best performer
HBM Competitiveness	Follower	Leader	Third	SK hynix has technological leadership

[5]

Forecast Scenario	WFE Scale	YoY Growth Rate
Base Case Scenario	USD 115 billion	+10%
Bullish Scenario	USD 126 billion	+20%

• NAND:
  +30%
• DRAM:
  +12%
• Foundry/Logic:
  +10%

• ASML: Strong demand for advanced lithography machines, market cap close to USD 500 billion[5]
• Lam Research (LRCX): Leader in etching equipment
• Applied Materials (AMAT): Full coverage of deposition, etching, and packaging equipment

1. Demand Side
   : The surge in AI inference demand drives memory product consumption; 2026 DRAM demand is projected to grow 26%
2. Supply Side
   : HBM capacity expansion crowds out traditional capacity; new capacity is limited, and the supply-demand gap persists
3. Price Side
   : 2026 DRAM prices are expected to rise 58% YoY, and the super cycle will continue through H1 2027
4. Valuation Side
   : Memory manufacturers’ ROE continues to improve, and earnings growth is expected to drive valuation re-rating

Target	Ticker	Recommendation Rationale	Risk Warning
SK hynix	000660.KS	HBM leader, lowest valuation, strongest profitability	Significant stock price increase already seen
Micron Technology	MU	Beneficiary of AI memory, 80% analyst buy rating	Relatively high valuation
ASML	ASML	Essential for AI chip manufacturing equipment	Relatively high valuation
Samsung Electronics	005930.KS	Full layout of memory + AI + mobile	Relatively low efficiency

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Risk Type	Details	Impact Level
Cycle Risk	Record profits may trigger aggressive expansion, potentially leading to overcapacity after 2028	High
Price Risk	End-product price hikes due to memory price increases may suppress consumer demand	Medium
Liquidity Risk	A new interest rate hike cycle may delay AI project financing	Medium
Infrastructure Bottleneck	Delays in data center power and grid construction may cause AI project postponements	Medium
Technology Risk	Yield ramp progress of new technologies such as HBM4	Low

Time Node	Risk Event
Q2 2026	Closely monitor whether memory price increases slow down
H2 2026	The cycle may transition from the overheating phase to stagflation
2027	New capacity is released; monitor overcapacity risk
After 2026	Risks emerge if large-scale AI clusters face power shortages

: Transition phase from overheating to stagflation[6]

Strategy	Recommendation
Position Allocation	Recommended allocation ratio for the memory chip sector is 15%-25%
Entry Timing	Adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to avoid chasing highs
Stock Holding Structure	Focus on allocating to SK hynix (lowest valuation), with moderate allocation to Micron (strongest growth potential)
Risk Hedging	Monitor the semiconductor equipment sector as a hedge
Dynamic Adjustment	Moderately reduce allocation to the memory sector in H2 2026

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1. Sustainability of the Uptrend
   : The memory chip price uptrend is expected to persist through
   H1 2027
   , and the current stage is the middle-to-late phase of the “super cycle”. 2026 DRAM prices are projected to rise 58% YoY, and the supply-demand gap will support sustained high prices.
2. Investment Value Assessment
   : The memory chip sector still has high investment value, but attention should be paid to changes in the cycle phase. SK hynix (14.6x P/E) and Samsung Electronics (28.5x P/E) are still undervalued relative to their earnings growth rates.
3. Optimal Investment Target
   :
   SK hynix
   has three core advantages: HBM technological leadership, the lowest valuation (14.6x P/E), and the strongest profitability (41.7% ROE), making it the optimal allocation choice currently.
4. Risk Warning
   : Monitor the risk of cycle transition in H2 2026 and the risk of overcapacity after 2027.

Sector	Investment Rating	Core Rationale
Memory Chips (DRAM/NAND)	Overweight	Supply-demand gap persists, price hike cycle continues
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM)	Overweight	Core component for AI, capacity falls short of demand
Semiconductor Equipment	Overweight	Capital expenditure surges, order visibility improves
Overall Semiconductors	Overweight	2026 market size is expected to reach USD 975.5 billion

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[1] ESM China - “Samsung’s Profit Surges 208%, Memory Prices May Rise Another 50%… Global Memory Chip Market Enters a Super Cycle!” (https://www.esmchina.com/news/13823.html)
[2] 2026 Electronics Industry Strategy Report - “Mining the AI Innovation Cycle” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202512171802307018_1.pdf)
[3] Securities Times - “Maximum Price Hike of 70%! Major Breaking News from Two Chip Giants!” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3572106.html)
[4] Omdia - “Semiconductor Industry Growth Accelerates in Q3 2025, Quarterly Revenue Exceeds USD 200 Billion for the First Time” (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251211379570/zh-CN)
[5] Citigroup - “AI Computing Power and Memory Demand Soar, Chip Capacity Expansion Begins! Semiconductor Equipment Enters a New Cycle” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260107A067O000)
[6] EET China - “2026 Semiconductor Industry Trend Observation (Part 3) - AI Drives Growth in Memory Market Demand” (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a462930.html)
[7] Xinhua News - “Amid AI Boom, the Memory Industry Enters a ‘Super Cycle’” (http://www.news.cn/tech/20251209/46467cc835964008b703a15319b07701/c.html)
[8] Eastmoney - “AI Demand Surges Amid Capacity Constraints, Samsung and SK hynix Reportedly Hike Server DRAM Prices by 70%” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601063610163396.html)
[0] Jinling AI Financial Database (Real-time Market Data and Corporate Financial Analysis)