Sanfu Co., Ltd. (603938) Limit-Up Analysis: Semiconductor Material Rally Catalyzed by Anti-Dumping Investigation

Sanfu Co., Ltd. (603938) hit the limit-up price of RMB 22.98 on January 8, 2026, with a 10% increase, entering the day’s limit-up pool. The core driver of this limit-up is the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China’s formal initiation of an anti-dumping investigation against imported dichlorosilane (SiH₂Cl₂) originating from Japan on January 7, 2026, and the applicant is Tangshan Sanfu Electronic Materials Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sanfu Co., Ltd. [1][2][3]. From a technical perspective, the stock price is close to its 52-week high of RMB 23.86, with strong short-term momentum. However, a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 109x reflects an extremely high valuation, and investors need to be alert to pullback risks. Comprehensive judgment shows that this limit-up is a fundamentally driven rally, with medium-to-long-term logic closely tied to the Sino-Japanese semiconductor industry chain rivalry and domestic substitution trends.

On January 7, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China issued an announcement, formally initiating an anti-dumping investigation against imported dichlorosilane (SiH₂Cl₂, abbreviated as DCS) originating from Japan [1][2][3][4][5]. This event became the direct catalyst for Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s limit-up. In terms of timing, the launch of this investigation coincided with China’s implementation of a series of technology export control measures against Japan—on January 6, 2026, China just announced a ban on the export of dual-use items to Japan, and the market expects China may further tighten the review of rare earth export licenses to Japan. Against this macro background, the Sino-Japanese semiconductor industry chain rivalry continues to escalate, and related domestic substitution concepts are continuously sought after by capital.

As the applicant of this anti-dumping investigation, the strategic intention of Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary is self-evident. Dichlorosilane is a key material for thin film deposition in chip manufacturing, and is widely used in the production of logic chips, memory chips and analog chips. As a key upstream material in the semiconductor industry chain, changes in its supply pattern directly affect the cost structure and supply security of the entire chip manufacturing chain. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Commerce, the investigation period usually lasts until January 7, 2027 (can be extended by 6 months), the dumping investigation period is from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, and the industrial injury investigation period is from January 1, 2022 to June 30, 2025. This means that this event will continue to provide thematic catalysis for Sanfu Co., Ltd. for at least one year in the future.

In terms of price performance, Sanfu Co., Ltd. shows a significant strong upward trend [0]. The single-day limit-up increase reached 10%, the cumulative increase in 5 days was 20.95%, the increase in the past month was 27.38%, the increase in three months was 58.05%, and the increase in the past year was as high as 123.76%. The current price of RMB 22.98 is close to the 52-week high of RMB 23.86, with only about 3.7% space from the historical high, and has risen 131% from the 52-week low of RMB 9.95. From the moving average system, the stock price is currently about 21.5% higher than the 20-day moving average of RMB 18.91, and is in a clear upward trend channel.

It is worth noting that today’s trading volume is 3.34 million shares, significantly lower than the average daily level of 11.44 million shares, with a turnover rate of only 0.81%, showing the typical characteristic of limit-up with shrinking volume [0]. This volume-price coordination indicates obvious market reluctance to sell, strong willingness of shareholders to hold positions, and stable closing orders reflect that bullish forces are dominant. Comprehensive analysis of technical indicators shows that the stock price is in a strong upward stage, but it is necessary to be alert to technical pullbacks that may be triggered by excessive short-term gains.

According to discussion data from platforms like Xueqiu, the market’s view on Sanfu Co., Ltd. shows an obvious bullish tendency [0]. Investors generally believe that the stock may show a continuous limit-up pattern, because the split of the semiconductor industry chain between China and Japan will last for a long time, which provides a lasting thematic investment logic for related domestic substitution concepts. Many market participants define it as a “medium-to-long-term logic theme” rather than a short-term limit-up speculation, which means that the sustainability of the rally may exceed that of general theme speculation.

From the perspective of institutional holdings, institutional products such as Jiutai Ruihe 18-Month Fixed-Term Open-End Hybrid Fund and Manulife High-End Equipment Stock Fund C have configurations in related sectors. Tianfeng Communications released an industry update report, optimistic about the accelerated domestic substitution of Faraday rotors caused by rare earth controls. This view echoes the semiconductor material logic of Sanfu Co., Ltd., further strengthening the market’s confidence in the main line of domestic substitution.

Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s main business covers the field of silicon chemical industry, with products including electronic chemicals such as trichlorosilane, silicon tetrachloride, and electronic-grade dichlorosilane, as well as downstream application products such as silane coupling agents. On December 30, 2025, the company announced that the “Ethyl Orthosilicate Filling and Storage Project” of its wholly-owned subsidiary passed acceptance. On December 12, 2025, it announced an increase in capital to its holding subsidiary to focus on the R&D and mass production of silane coupling agents. On December 13, 2025, it invested RMB 2.8 billion to provide capital support to its subsidiary [0]. These capital operations indicate that the company is actively laying out two high-growth tracks: electronic chemicals and silane coupling agents.

However, fundamental data shows obvious valuation pressure. Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s current trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is as high as 109.43x, price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 3.53x, while return on equity (ROE) is only 3.15% and net profit margin is 3.92% [0]. From the perspective of financial indicator matching, the current extremely high valuation requires high-speed growth to digest, but the recent quarterly performance is relatively flat—in Q3 2025, earnings per share was RMB 0.07, and operating revenue was RMB 540 million. Although there was a month-on-month increase, the absolute value is limited. This mismatch of “high valuation, low growth rate” constitutes the biggest fundamental risk point at present.

The deep significance of Sanfu Co., Ltd.'s limit-up event lies in that it reflects that China’s semiconductor industry independent controllability strategy is extending from terminal applications to upstream material links. For a long time, Japan has occupied a leading global position in the field of high-purity semiconductor gases and specialty chemical materials, and the localization rate of key materials such as dichlorosilane, electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid, and high-purity photoresist is low. Through trade policy tools such as anti-dumping investigations, China is creating market space for local semiconductor material enterprises, which marks that domestic substitution has entered Phase 2.0—not only focusing on the autonomy of chip design and manufacturing, but also paying more attention to the independence of upstream equipment and material supply chains.

From the perspective of industry chain rivalry, the technological competition between China and Japan has evolved from simple tariff frictions to systematic industry chain decoupling. Against this background, any local supplier that can achieve import substitution will receive policy support and market favor. Sanfu Co., Ltd. as a domestic leading enterprise in the dichlorosilane field, its subsidiary took the initiative to file an anti-dumping investigation application, reflecting the enterprise’s keen grasp of policy windows and proactive actions.

From the time dimension, the following nodes deserve key attention: first, the follow-up progress of the Ministry of Commerce’s anti-dumping investigation, including the preliminary ruling time, hearing arrangements, etc.; second, relevant news on Sino-Japanese trade frictions, especially policy dynamics involving the semiconductor industry chain; third, the company’s own business progress and performance announcements; fourth, changes in market sentiment of the entire semiconductor sector and electronic chemicals sector. The current time (early January 2026) is in a policy honeymoon period and a peak of market sentiment, but as time goes by, uncertainty will gradually increase.

: A P/E ratio of 109x is at an extremely high level in the basic chemical industry, and the stock price may have already overdrawn growth expectations for many years in the future. From the historical valuation range, the current price is close to the 52-week high, with limited room for further upside but large room for pullback [0].

: The increase in the past month was 27.38%, and the increase in three months was 58.05%. The cumulative short-term gain is huge, and there is strong pressure for technical pullback. Especially today’s shrinking volume during the limit-up may mean that short-term profit-taking orders have not been fully digested.

: The current ROE is only 3.15% and net profit margin is 3.92%, with profitability mismatched with valuation level. If rapid performance growth cannot be achieved in the next 1-2 quarters, the valuation center may face the risk of moving downward.

: Anti-dumping investigations usually take 12-18 months to produce final results, and there are multiple possibilities such as policy changes, investigation extensions, or even investigation termination during the period. In addition, even if the preliminary ruling determines that dumping exists, there is uncertainty in the final anti-dumping tax rate and enforcement intensity.

: Investors who chase the high to buy after the limit-up may face the risk of being unable to sell in a timely manner, especially in the case of one-word limit-up or limit-up with shrinking volume, liquidity drops sharply.

: Against the background of continuous escalation of Sino-Japanese technological competition, domestic semiconductor material enterprises will continue to benefit from policy support and market sentiment premium. The filing of the anti-dumping investigation is only the beginning, and subsequent possible policy combinations (including tax incentives, government procurement inclinations, R&D subsidies, etc.) will further improve the industry environment.

: The restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain is accelerating, and China’s establishment of an independent and controllable semiconductor material supply system is a long-term strategic direction. This structural trend will not change due to short-term market fluctuations, providing sustained growth momentum for leading enterprises such as Sanfu Co., Ltd.

: The stock price is only 3.7% away from the historical high. Breaking through the historical high will open up new upside space, which is expected to attract trend-tracking capital to enter the market.

Sanfu Co., Ltd. (603938) hit the limit-up on January 8, 2026, with the core driver being the filing of China’s anti-dumping investigation against Japanese imported dichlorosilane promoted by its subsidiary as the applicant. The stock is currently priced at RMB 22.98, with a 10% increase, close to the 52-week high of RMB 23.86. From a technical perspective, it shows the characteristic of limit-up with shrinking volume, with obvious market reluctance to sell. Short-term momentum is strong, but the extremely high valuation of 109x is mismatched with limited profitability, so it is necessary to be alert to technical pullback risks. The stock is classified into hot themes such as “Countermeasures Against Japan Concept”, “Semiconductor Domestic Substitution”, and “Electronic Chemicals”, and investors generally regard it as a medium-to-long-term logic variety. From the perspective of risk management, it is recommended that holders pay attention to changes in the volume of closing orders tomorrow to judge the sustainability of short-term momentum, and empty-position investors should wait for a pullback to around the 20-day moving average (RMB 18-19) before considering layout, and avoid chasing the high.