Case Analysis of Pony Testing (300887) and Investment Risk Assessment of A-Share Small-Cap Stocks

Based on the collected information, I provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report:

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Pony Testing (300887.SZ) issued an announcement on

, disclosing the following key information [1][2]:

Indicator	Specific Data
Abnormal Fluctuation Period	December 24, 2025 to January 8, 2026 (10 consecutive trading days)
Cumulative Increase Deviation	+100% (identified as Severe Abnormal Fluctuation )
2025 Performance Forecast	Net loss of RMB 200 million to RMB 250 million
Company Statement	No material information that should be disclosed but has not been disclosed

According to Dragon and Tiger List data [3]:

• Total Buy Value
  : RMB 180 million
• Total Sell Value
  : RMB 216 million
• Net Buy Value
  : -RMB 35.1238 million (net outflow)
• Northbound Capital
  : Bought RMB 76.8043 million, Sold RMB 56.0203 million

Notably, despite the stock hitting the daily price limit, capital showed a

, indicating signs of institutional capital distribution.

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Financial Indicator	Data
2025 Expected Net Loss	RMB 200 million - RMB 250 million
2025 First Three Quarters Revenue	Down approximately 17% year-on-year
First Three Quarters Net Profit Attributable to Parent	-RMB 199 million (improved 15.07% year-on-year, but still in loss)

The company’s main business is testing services, covering environmental testing, food testing, medical testing and other fields. Although the loss narrowed in the first three quarters, the company will still face a

for the full year.

Despite weak fundamentals, the company’s stock price was heavily hyped, with potential driving factors including [4]:

Concept Sector	Relevance Analysis
Brain-Computer Interface/Neural Engineering	The company holds safety evaluation qualifications for brain-computer interfaces, catalyzed by industry developments such as Neuralink
Commercial Aerospace Testing	The company has obtained qualification recognition for environmental and reliability testing, covering spacecraft testing
Nuclear Pollution Prevention	Possesses radioactive monitoring capabilities for nuclear wastewater

: Most of the above-mentioned businesses are in the , making it difficult to support the current sharp surge in stock price.

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Risk Type	Risk Level	Specific Performance
Liquidity Risk	🔴 High	Small-cap stocks have low average daily turnover, making large transactions difficult to execute; when liquidity dries up, timely stop-loss cannot be achieved
Stock Price Manipulation Risk	🔴 High	Small free float and small number of shareholders, easy to be controlled by manipulators for hype
Risk of Divergence Between Performance and Valuation	🔴 High	Poor-performance stocks frequently hype hot concepts, with stock prices decoupled from fundamentals
Information Asymmetry Risk	🟠 Medium-High	Retail investors obtain information lagging behind, easily becoming ‘bag holders’
Delisting Risk	🟠 Medium-High	Poor-performing small-cap stocks face multiple risks such as delisting due to share price below par value and financial delisting
Leverage Stampede Risk	🟠 Medium-High	Concentration of margin trading positions; when stock prices fall, forced liquidation triggers intensified selling pressure

Dimension	Small-Cap Stock Characteristics	Large-Cap Stock Characteristics
Liquidity	Poor, prone to sharp rises and falls	Good, relatively stable prices
Information Transparency	Low, limited research coverage	High, followed by many analysts
Valuation Volatility	Wide range, prone to bubbles	Narrow range, rational pricing
Risk Resistance	Weak, volatile performance	Strong, diversified business
Delisting Probability	Relatively high	Relatively low

The A-Share market from 2025 to 2026 shows the following characteristics, further amplifying small-cap stock risks [5][6]:

1. Quantitative Trading Amplifies Volatility
   : Programmatic trading is sensitive to liquidity, and small-cap stocks are more likely to be rapidly pushed up or down
2. Shorter Concept Hype Cycles
   : Hot concepts switch quickly, increasing the risk of chasing gains and selling losses
3. Tighter Regulation
   : Multiple small-cap stocks have received regulatory warnings or suspension reviews due to abnormal fluctuations
4. Impact of Institutional Position Adjustment
   : Institutional capital prefers high-dividend blue chips, and small-cap stocks face capital outflow pressure

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Evaluation Dimension	Conclusion
Fundamentals	⚠️ Loss-making performance, declining revenue, lack of performance support
Valuation	⚠️ Significantly overvalued, deviating from intrinsic value
Capital Flow	⚠️ Net outflow of institutional capital, suspected of pumping and dumping
News	⚠️ No major positive news disclosed, high component of concept hype
Comprehensive Rating	Strongly Recommended to Avoid

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                  Small-Cap Stock Investment Risk Control Checklist │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  □ Confirm whether the company's fundamentals support the current valuation │
│  □ Verify whether there is substantial performance support, rather than pure concept hype │
│  □ Monitor capital flows, alert to the risk of being a bag holder when institutional capital distributes │
│  □ Control position size: single small-cap stock position does not exceed 10% of total portfolio │
│  □ Set stop-loss levels to avoid deep entrenchment │
│  □ Monitor regulatory dynamics, risk of suspension review after abnormal fluctuations │
│  □ Diversify investments, avoid over-concentration in small-cap stocks │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

:

• After consecutive daily limit-ups, the company issues a ‘no major matters’ announcement
• Stock prices continue to rise irrationally despite loss-making performance
• Dragon and Tiger List shows well-known hot money entering and exiting quickly
• Turnover rate surges abnormally but stock price stagnates
• Margin balance climbs rapidly, with leveraged capital gathering

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The Pony Testing case is a

of A-Share small-cap stock investment risks:

1. Severe Divergence Between Performance and Stock Price
   : Expected full-year loss of RMB 200 million - RMB 250 million, but stock price had a cumulative increase deviation of 100% over 10 trading days
2. Hype Without Fundamental Support
   : The so-called brain-computer interface, commercial aerospace and other concepts are still in the embryonic stage
3. Signs of Institutional Capital Distribution
   : Dragon and Tiger List data shows net outflow, capital is exiting behind the daily limit-up
4. High Regulatory Risk
   : Has been identified as ‘severe abnormal fluctuation’, may face suspension review in the follow-up

. Small-cap stock investment requires extreme caution; it is recommended to prioritize high-liquidity, high-quality targets with solid fundamentals, and avoid being a ‘bag holder’ for market hype.

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[1] Eastmoney - Pony Testing: Severe Abnormal Fluctuation in Stock Trading, Expected Net Loss of RMB 200 Million - RMB 250 Million for 2025 (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601083613013369.html)

[2] AASTOCKS - Pony Testing: Severe Abnormal Fluctuation in Stock Trading, Expected Net Loss of RMB 200 Million - RMB 250 Million for 2025 (http://www.aastocks.com/sc/stocks/analysis/china-hot-topic-content.aspx?id=GLH2245783L&catg=4&source=GLH)

[3] Sina Finance - Dragon and Tiger List | Pony Testing Hits Daily Limit, Northbound Capital Net Buys RMB 20.7840 Million (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/aiassist/lgbzz/2026-01-08/doc-inhfqtyp3806400.shtml)

[4] Stock Review Network - Pony Testing: Dual-Driven by Brain-Computer Interface and Commercial Aerospace, Testing Leader Benefits from Industry Expansion (https://300887.fupanwang.com/dsk/2026-01-06.html)

[5] Sina Finance - Consensus Among Domestic and Foreign Institutions: China’s Stock Market Will Continue Its Uptrend in 2026 (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-05/doc-inhfevaa7040692.shtml)

[6] Huxiu - ‘Triad-style’ Market Manipulation, Ruthless ‘Shearing of Retail Investors’, The Hidden Battle of Hong Kong-listed Pharmaceutical Company IPOs (https://m.huxiu.com/article/4819808.html)