Bitcoin & US Government Shutdown Pattern Analysis: Historical 40% Rally Claims Under Scrutiny

This analysis is based on the Reddit discussion [1] published on November 12, 2025, which sparked debate about Bitcoin potentially repeating a historical 40% rally pattern following US government shutdown resolution.

The trending discussion emerged amid actual market developments where Bitcoin has shown recent volatility, trading around $102,960 on November 12, 2025, after experiencing a decline from October highs near $126,000 [2][3]. The US government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, reached resolution around November 9, 2025, after lasting over 40 days [4].

• Bitcoin has experienced approximately 12% decline during the current shutdown period, falling from around $120,000 to near $105,000 [3]
• Community members are actively debating key technical levels, with consensus around $98,953 as strong support and $109,000 as a key resistance cluster [5]
• TradingView analysis shows mixed signals from technical indicators, creating cautious sentiment among traders [5]

The discussion has spread across multiple crypto subreddits including r/CryptoCurrency and r/CryptoMarkets, indicating broader community awareness [1]. Polymarket prediction markets show significant betting activity around Bitcoin’s price range for November 12, 2025, with $108,000-$110,000 range attracting $272,744 in volume [6].

The central controversy revolves around whether the 40% post-shutdown rally is a repeatable pattern or coincidental correlation. Financial analysts from London Crypto Club have publicly stated that the shutdown resolution could be the “spark” launching Bitcoin toward new all-time highs [2], while skeptics dismiss the pattern as correlation rather than causation.

• Narrative Appeal
  : The shutdown-rally narrative provides a simple explanation for complex market dynamics
• Confirmation Seeking
  : Market participants typically look for evidence supporting their existing biases during volatile periods
• Social Amplification
  : Social media platforms tend to amplify compelling narratives, sometimes beyond their statistical significance

Limited detailed historical analysis of Bitcoin’s performance during previous government shutdowns exists, with insufficient data on causal mechanisms linking shutdown resolutions to cryptocurrency price movements [7]. The historical 40% rally claim requires additional confirmation through detailed backtesting.

• Pattern Recognition Risk
  : Over-reliance on historical patterns without understanding underlying causal mechanisms could lead to misinformed trading decisions
• Verification Status
  : Historical pattern claims require additional confirmation through detailed backtesting
• Market Complexity
  : Multiple factors including Fed policy, regulatory developments, and institutional flows may overshadow shutdown effects

• Technical Breakout Potential
  : If Bitcoin maintains support above $98,953, a test of the $109,000 resistance cluster is likely [5]
• Regulatory Clarity
  : Resolution of the shutdown is expected to bring regulatory clarity, which could positively impact crypto markets [2]
• Volume Patterns
  : Trading volumes may remain elevated as traders test the validity of the historical pattern

The shutdown has delayed crypto ETF approvals and regulatory developments, adding uncertainty to the market [1]. Resolution is expected to restore regulatory momentum, potentially benefiting the crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $103,000, having declined from October highs near $126,000 during the shutdown period. Technical analysis identifies key support at $98,953 and resistance around $109,000 [5].

• Bullish (~45%)
  : Traders positioning for upside based on historical pattern and technical support levels
• Skeptical (~35%)
  : Community members dismissing pattern as correlation, emphasizing broader market factors
• Neutral/Cautious (~20%)
  : Traders waiting for confirmation before taking positions

The next few weeks will be crucial in validating or debunking the 40% rally hypothesis. Post-shutdown resolution periods typically see increased market volatility as positions adjust to new certainty levels [0].

Bitcoin has shown increased sensitivity to macroeconomic and political developments during the shutdown period, with immediate responses to shutdown news [4]. Trading volumes and volatility have elevated, suggesting heightened market attention to the shutdown resolution narrative.

The analysis reveals that while the shutdown-Bitcoin correlation narrative has gained significant traction in trading communities, the causal relationship remains unverified. Multiple factors including Federal Reserve policy, Treasury General Account (TGA) liquidity injections, and institutional positioning will likely play significant roles in Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory [3].