In-Depth Analysis of the Commercial Aerospace Sector: Sector Posts Over 30% Single-Month Growth, Satellite Internet Constellation Construction is Poised for Substantial Expansion
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The commercial aerospace sector performed strongly from late November 2025 to early January 2026, showing an accelerated upward trend overall:
| Time Period | Overall Sector Growth | Performance of Leading Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 (Single Month) | 30%-35% |
China Satellite (+165%), Aerospace Development (+184%) |
| November 24 to January 6 | 40%-50% |
China Satellite Communications (+109%), Shanghai Hugong (+78%) |
The core driving factors of this market rally include:
- Intensive Policy Rollouts: The “Action Plan for the China National Space Administration to Promote High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025–2027)” was released, and the Commercial Aerospace Department of the China National Space Administration was officially established[1]
- Technological Breakthroughs: The Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A reusable rockets successfully completed their maiden flights[2]
- Capital Market Breakthroughs: Detailed rules for STAR Market IPOs of commercial rocket enterprises were released, and the IPO application of LandSpace was accepted[1]
- Stock Price Performance: From December 1, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the cumulative growth reached 67.79%[0]
- Latest Closing Price: RMB 9.48
- Technical Indicators: KDJ values are K=92.9, D=80.9, J=116.8, which are in the overbought zone[0]
- Beta Coefficient: 0.47, with lower volatility relative to the broader market[0]
Galaxy Electronics is currently in a clear upward trend, with a buy signal triggered on December 26. The short-term resistance level is at RMB 9.48, the next target price is USD 9.99, and the support level below is USD 7.05. However, considering that both KDJ and RSI indicators show an overbought state, investors need to be wary of short-term pullback risks[0].
| Indicator | GW Constellation (China Satellite Network Group) | Qianfan Constellation (Yuanxin Satellite) |
|---|---|---|
| Planned Number of Satellites | 12,992 | 12,000 |
| Currently In-Orbit | Approximately 150 | Approximately 200 |
| Completion Progress | 1.15% |
1.67% |
| Nature | Central SOE “National Team” | Controlled by the Shanghai Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission |
- 2024: Both constellations started networking with low launch frequency
- 2025: Launch frequency increased significantly, with the GW Constellation’s launch interval shortened from “1-2 months” to “3-5 days”[3]
- November 2025: The world entered the “Weekly Launch Era”, with an average of over 26 launches per month[3]
| Time | Expected Progress | Key Indicators |
|---|---|---|
Q1-Q2 2026 |
Reusable rocket technology verification matures | Successful re-flights of Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A |
Q2-Q3 2026 |
Large-scale satellite tendering starts | China Satellite Network Group and Yuanxin Satellite initiate procurement of 10,000+ satellites |
Q3-Q4 2026 |
Constellation networking density increases | Monthly launches exceed 50 |
2027 |
Large-scale expansion of application scenarios | Launch of ToB/ToC satellite internet services |
According to the rules of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), non-geostationary orbit satellite constellations must complete the corresponding proportion of deployment within a specified time, otherwise they will lose frequency usage rights[3]. Currently, the number of in-orbit satellites of the two constellations is less than 1% of the planned total, creating enormous pressure to “occupy frequencies and maintain orbits”, which forces the acceleration of launch capacity and launch site construction.
Upstream (Satellite Manufacturing) - 35%
├── Satellite Platforms: Chang Guang Satellite, GalaxySpace, MinoSpace
└── Core Components: Time-Frequency Chips, Solar Cells, Propulsion Systems
Midstream (Rocket Manufacturing) - 28%
├── Liquid Rockets: LandSpace, i-Space, Galactic Energy
└── Reusable Technologies: Zhuque Series, Long March Series, Hyperbola Series
Downstream (Satellite Operation) - 22%
└── Operators: China Satellite Communications, Yuanxin Satellite, Xingkong Huakang
Supporting Services (15%)
├── Ground Equipment: Tianao Electronics, Zhenxin Technology
└── Electronic Components: Galaxy Electronics, Shenglu Telecommunication
- China Satellite (600118.SH): A core target in satellite manufacturing, with a V-shaped reversal in Q3 2025 performance: revenue surged 177.31% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by nearly 300% year-on-year[4]
- China Satellite Communications (601698.SH): Leading satellite communication operator, benefiting from accelerated constellation networking
- Shanghai Hugong (603131.SH): Aerospace component supplier, deeply involved in commercial rocket supporting services
- Galaxy Electronics (002519.SZ): Satellite electronic supporting enterprise, benefiting from sector valuation re-rating
- Tianao Electronics (002935.SZ): Satellite time-frequency product provider, leading in both technology and market
| Risk Type | Specific Content | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
Technical Risk |
Reusable rocket technology verification falls short of expectations, slow decline in launch costs | Medium |
Policy Risk |
Fierce competition for frequency resources, changes in international policies may affect constellation deployment | Medium |
Market Risk |
Excessive short-term growth of the sector, potential for technical pullback | High |
Competition Risk |
Rapid expansion of SpaceX Starlink, intensifying global competition pattern | Low |
- The commercial aerospace sector has shifted from the “theme speculation” phase to the “fundamental verification” phase
- Satellite internet constellation construction is expected to enter the substantial expansion phase in the second half of 2026
- The current sector rally is a forward pricing of the 2026 industrialization inflection point
- Technological breakthroughs in reusable rockets are the key to unlocking substantial expansion
- Short-term: Focus on entry opportunities after technical pullbacks; leading targets such as Galaxy Electronics need to wait for a retest of support levels
- Mid-term: Accumulate core targets in satellite manufacturing and satellite operation on dips
- Long-term: Focus on sector valuation re-rating opportunities brought by IPOs of commercial aerospace enterprises
- China Satellite (600118.SH): Leading satellite manufacturer, performance reversal confirmed
- China Satellite Communications (601698.SH): Core satellite operator, benefiting from constellation networking
- Galaxy Electronics (002519.SZ): High-beta sector target, exercise caution due to technical overbought condition
[1] Shanghai Securities News - “Commercial Aerospace Sector Continues to Rise, Industrial Inflection Point is Approaching” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2026-01-07/doc-inhfmaya5572779.shtml)
[2] 21st Century Business Herald - “Reusable Rocket Race, IPO Feast Begins: 2025, Commercial Aerospace Enters a New Era” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251230/herald/818f68d6015dd8e6234292b777913fb9.html)
[3] Securities Times - “Reusable Rocket Race, IPO Feast Begins” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3565344.html)
[4] Eastmoney - “China Satellite Hits Limit-Up Twice! Amid the Commercial Aerospace Boom, Is 2026 Really the Industry’s ‘Sudden’ Inflection Point?” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251228230223621960780)
[5] Sina Finance - “China Galaxy Securities: Driven by Multiple Rounds of Policy, Technology and Performance, Focus on Satellites, Communications and Space Computing Power” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2025-12-29/doc-inhemiux0445415.shtml)
[0] Jinling AI Financial Database (Real-time Market and Technical Analysis Data)
Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About us: Ginlix AI is the AI Investment Copilot powered by real data, bridging advanced AI with professional financial databases to provide verifiable, truth-based answers. Please use the chat box below to ask any financial question.