Cha Panda's Franchise Store Growth Rate Plunges to 0.7%: Supply Chain Shortcomings Restrain Development

Based on the information I collected, below is a systematic analysis of the sharp decline in Cha Panda’s franchise store growth rate and its supply chain issues:

---

According to Cha Panda’s H1 2025 financial report,

[1][2]. This figure is relatively low in the current new ready-to-drink tea industry, forming a stark contrast with competitors:

Brand	2025 Store Growth Rate
Guming	64%
Mixue Ice Cream & Tea	18%
CHAGEE	10%
Cha Panda	0.7%
Heytea	Negative Growth
NAYUKI	Negative Growth

Data Source: Extreme Ocean Data, Guojin Securities Research Institute (as of November 30, 2025)[3]

---

According to the “2025 Ready-to-Drink Tea Industry Research Report” released by Yilan Business, as of September 2025, the total number of stores of 30 representative ready-to-drink tea brands nationwide has exceeded

, and the cumulative number of domestic enterprises related to ready-to-drink tea has exceeded [1][2]. The market supply balance has been broken, directly manifesting as stalled expansion.

Data from iiMedia Research shows that the market size of new ready-to-drink tea reached

in 2024, but the growth rate has plummeted from over 20% before the pandemic to [1][2]. From 2020 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate of newly registered ready-to-drink tea enterprises was , and in 2024, it decreased by over 70% compared to the peak[1].

Guming’s H1 data is representative: the number of stores per franchisee plummeted from 2.2 to 1.9, indicating a significant decline in the willingness of existing franchisees to open new stores[1][2]. Under the dual pressure of high rental costs and compressed profit margins, franchisees face the dilemma of “losing money as soon as they open a store”[1][2].

Many practitioners report that rapid expansion and marketing stimuli have overdrawn consumers’ demand for the milk tea industry as a whole. As one franchisee put it: “One cup a day, don’t you get tired of it?”[1]

---

Although Cha Panda’s net profit increased by nearly 40% in H1 2025 (mainly due to supply chain cost reduction)[1][2], its supply chain still has the following shortcomings:

• Insufficient Procurement Scale Effect
  : Compared to Mixue Ice Cream & Tea’s model of self-built production bases and large-scale centralized procurement, Cha Panda’s cost control capability is relatively weak
• Limited Cold Chain Logistics Coverage
  : Competitors such as Guming have established a nationwide cold chain logistics network to ensure product quality consistency even in third- and fourth-tier cities
• Room for Improvement in Regional Responsiveness
  : The ability to flexibly allocate the supply chain to meet the needs of different regions still needs to be strengthened

Supply chain competition has evolved from the initial stage of “direct sourcing from origins” to an

[4][5]:

• Mixue Ice Cream & Tea
  : Through self-built production bases and large-scale centralized procurement, it has achieved extreme cost control, building an uncopyable price barrier
• Guming
  : Relies on a nationwide cold chain logistics network and a direct procurement system deep in producing areas to ensure unified product standards
• NAYUKI
  : Through in-depth control of core raw materials (such as high-quality tea sources), it has built a patent barrier that cannot be imitated in the short term

---

Cha Panda’s senior management clearly stated at the earnings conference that

, achieving nearly 40% growth in net profit through supply chain cost reduction[1][2].

• Conduct product development tailored to regional needs
• Create a differentiated positioning of product price ranges

It has signed contracts for over 40 stores in

, with outstanding performance in the South Korean market[1][2]:

• The first store is located in Gangnam, a wealthy district in Seoul
• The second store has settled in Gloria Department Store, a local high-end shopping mall
• The proportion of local users can reach
  over 80%

Similar to NAYUKI, Cha Panda is proactively optimizing its store structure, controlling costs, improving operational efficiency, and exploring full-time composite formats to increase store revenue[6].

---

CITIC Securities predicts that the tea beverage industry will enter a stage of overlapping multiple transformations in 2026, with the market size expected to exceed

, but growth dividends will be more concentrated in leading brands. The living space of small and medium-sized brands lacking solid supply chains and refined operational capabilities will be further squeezed[4][5].

Competition in 2026 will be a

[4][5]:

• Supply Chain Intelligence
  : A data-driven intelligent network that predicts regional sales volumes and dynamically adjusts distribution to minimize loss and inventory costs
• Localization in Overseas Markets
  : Just like Cha Panda’s approach in South Korea — developing exclusive SKUs to adapt to local tastes and establishing a professional tea artist training system
• Reconstruction of Franchisee Relationships
  : CHAGEE has announced that it will launch a new joint operation model in 2026, canceling multiple fees and switching to a fixed commission based on GMV, while also introducing a “discount guarantee” policy[6]

---

The plunge of Cha Panda’s franchise store growth rate to 0.7% is a microcosm of the industry’s transition from a high-speed expansion period to a stock competition period. Supply chain shortcomings are a key bottleneck restricting its development, but the company has achieved profit growth through supply chain cost reduction and is actively laying out overseas markets to seek incremental growth space.

In the future, Cha Panda needs to continue to focus on the following aspects:

1. Deepen vertical integration of the supply chain
   to enhance procurement scale effect and cold chain logistics capabilities
2. Strengthen product innovation
   to establish differentiated competitive advantages
3. Optimize franchisee policies
   to stabilize the franchisee system amid fierce competition
4. Accelerate overseas layout
   to replicate domestic successful experience in overseas markets

---

[1] 36Kr - Milk Tea Stores, Enough (https://m.36kr.com/p/3601719255516168)

[2] Tencent News - Milk Tea Stores, Enough (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251218A06EWN00)

[3] Guojin Securities Research Institute - 2026 Annual Strategy Report for the Commercial Services Sector (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202601031814057433_1.pdf)

[4] Sohu - New Ready-to-Drink Tea 2026: Half Deep Sea, Half Ocean Voyage (https://m.sohu.com/a/972774023_116132)

[5] 36Kr - New Ready-to-Drink Tea 2026: Half Deep Sea, Half Ocean Voyage (https://m.36kr.com/p/3626319079961091)

[6] Zhican Wang - After Half a Year of Food Delivery Wars Burning RMB 80 Billion, Where is the Tea Beverage Track Heading in 2026? (http://m.xy178.com/gs/2025/1211/122025_202439.html)