In-Depth Analysis of Major Events in the Photovoltaic Industry in 2025: Policy Changes and Industry Restructuring

Based on the collected information, I will now systematically analyze this major event in the photovoltaic industry.

According to the latest market data, the photovoltaic industry experienced disruptive policy changes in 2025. Document No. 136 released at the beginning of the year clarified that the grid-connected electricity prices for incremental new energy will be fully market-oriented, and this policy change directly ended the old era of explosive growth in the photovoltaic industry [1].

• The awarded capacity of photovoltaic modules in December was only 5.45GW, a sharp decrease of 73.1% month-on-month from November and 37.2% year-on-year from December 2024 [2]
• Dozens of photovoltaic projects were terminated throughout the year, with over 60GW of photovoltaic centralized procurement tenders terminated [1]
• At the end of the year, the centralized procurement tender market was in a contraction phase, with a prominent feature of orders concentrating on leading enterprises

1. Collapse of Profit Expectations
   : After the implementation of Document No. 136, the attitude of central and state-owned new energy enterprises towards photovoltaic projects underwent a fundamental change
2. Collective Shift in Investment
   : Drove the “Big Five and Six Small” power generation groups to shift their new energy investment from photovoltaic to wind power [1]
3. Slowdown in Installation Growth
   : The growth rate of domestic new installations slowed down and even saw monthly negative growth at the end of 2025

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Indicator	Data	Remarks
Current Stock Price	RMB 3.95/share	Quotation after an 8.35% plunge on January 8
Market Capitalization	RMB 4.7 billion	Sharply reduced from its peak
Q3 2025 Revenue	RMB 1.556 billion	Down 42.58% year-on-year
Q3 2025 Net Loss	RMB 214 million	Slightly narrowed from RMB 572 million in the same period of the previous year
2024 Full-Year Net Loss	RMB 2.09 billion	Net assets dropped to RMB 435 million

• If the net assets are confirmed to be negative at the end of 2025, it will trigger the financial mandatory delisting indicator of “negative audited end-of-period net assets in the most recent fiscal year” in the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s Listing Rules for Stocks [3]
• 2026 is the only window for the company to rescue itself, which must simultaneously meet three conditions: net assets turning positive, revenue not less than RMB 100 million, and obtaining a standard unqualified audit report

• Only the first phase of 7.5GW cell capacity of the Chuzhou, Anhui project was completed; the remaining capacity and Phase II and III projects were not constructed
• The 5GW PERC cell production line at the Changzhou base and the 7.5GW TOPCon cell production line at the Chuzhou base have both ceased production [3]
• The Administrative Committee of Quanjiao Economic Development Zone plans to recover the RMB 140 million project investment and will no longer fulfill subsequent investment obligations

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In December 2025, the polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform — Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. — was officially registered, jointly held by several leading photovoltaic polysilicon enterprises. Through the innovative path of “government guidance + industry collaboration + market-oriented mergers and acquisitions”, it focuses on rectifying the industry-wide “involutionary” vicious competition [1].

Time Node	Average Transaction Price of N-Type Polysilicon Feedstock	Increase
Early July 2025	RMB 35,400/ton	Benchmark
Late November 2025	RMB 53,600/ton	51.4%

1. Overcapacity Pattern Difficult to Reverse Fundamentally
   :
   • Global total supply of silicon material is expected to be 1.7-1.75 million tons (including 300,000 tons of inventory) in 2026, with total demand of 1.16-1.27 million tons
   • The overcapacity volume reaches 430,000-590,000 tons, with an overcapacity rate exceeding 30% [4]
   • The price center may operate at RMB 46,000-53,000/ton, still lower than the cost line of some second- and third-tier enterprises

2. Unsmooth Transmission Mechanism
   :
   • The module sector faces enormous pressure in price transmission, and the overcapacity in the cell and module sectors remains severe
   • The price of integrated modules needs to reach RMB 0.88-0.99/W to turn profitable, but this is already close to the tolerance limit of downstream power stations [2]

3. Increased Pressure on the Demand Side
   :
   • The industry generally expects that domestic new photovoltaic installations may see the first negative growth in recent years in 2026
   • Optimistic and neutral estimates are 230-250GW and 200-220GW respectively, a significant decline from the 2025 forecast of over 280GW

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1. Positive Factors
   :
   • Industry self-discipline in production curtailment has achieved initial results; polysilicon production from January to October 2025 saw the first year-on-year decline since 2013
   • The storage platform can absorb some overcapacity and stabilize market price expectations
   • The “Anti-Involution” Convention has promoted price recovery, and the industrial chain prices have seen restorative growth

2. Fundamental Challenges
   :
   • The problem of supply-demand mismatch has not been resolved, and capacity clearance on the supply side still needs to be accelerated
   • Technology has entered a mature stage, with a lack of breakthrough innovation, and the unit cost reduction range has narrowed from 15-20% to 3-5%
   • The proportion of silicon material in module costs has dropped from 15% in 2023 to 9.9% in 2026, and its discourse power continues to weaken [4]

The photovoltaic industry is shifting from the era of “Silicon Dominance” to the era of “Silver Paste Dominance”; the proportion of silver paste has risen to 16%-17%, becoming a key cost item that determines the survival of enterprises [4]. 2026 is defined as a “critical period”, and the industry needs to fulfill three missions: anti-involution, price increase, and capacity clearance. The orderly exit of backward capacity will be the fundamental path for the industry to return to health.

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[1] Eastmoney - “Within a Year, the Photovoltaic Industry Experiences a ‘Great Fission’” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260108165725376477390)

[2] Sina Finance - “Monthly Awarded Capacity Only 5.5GW! Longi, Tongwei, JinkoSolar Lead December Photovoltaic Module Centralized Procurement” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-05/doc-inhfhavn6750024.shtml)

[3] Yicai/Eastmoney - “The First Photovoltaic Module Stock Warns of Possible Insolvency in 2025” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601083612543539.html)

[4] NetEase/TMTpost - “From Silicon Dominance to Silver Paste Dominance, Who Will Be the King of the New Photovoltaic Cycle?” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIHENCCH05118O92.html)