In-Depth Analysis Report on Large-Scale Stock Sales by Samsara (IOT) Executives

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According to public disclosures, John Bicket, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Samsara Inc. (NYSE: IOT), conducted large-scale stock sales between October and December 2025, selling a total of approximately

and realizing proceeds of approximately [0][1]. Meanwhile, CEO Sanjit Biswas also participated in a similar sales plan.

Transaction Date	Number of Shares Sold	Transaction Amount
2025-10-07	170,000 Shares	$6,519,636
2025-10-21	170,000 Shares	$6,572,944
2025-11-04	149,277 Shares	$5,813,326
2025-11-18	123,441 Shares	$4,506,389
2025-12-02	145,838 Shares	$4,273,631
2025-12-17	136,061 Shares	$5,221,215
2025-12-30	85,773 Shares	$3,083,983

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This is a regulation by the SEC that allows executives and directors of public companies to pre-arrange stock trading plans, with core features including[1]:

• Pre-Set
  : The plan must be established when the executive is not aware of material non-public information
• Regular Disclosure
  : Transactions must be executed in accordance with pre-set timing, price, and volume
• Compliance Protection
  : Can serve as a legal defense against insider trading allegations

According to the 8-K filing submitted by Samsara on January 6, 2026, the two co-founders established a 10b5-1 trading plan on

, with the purpose of [1].

• September 29, 2025: 10b5-1 plan established (stock price was approximately $40-45 at the time)
• October-December 2025: Sales executed
• January 6-December 24, 2026: Plan continues to be executed (approximately 5 million additional shares expected to be sold)

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Signal Type	Analysis	Weighting
Compliant Transaction	Sold via a Rule 10b5-1 plan, indicating the sale was not based on non-public information	Neutral-to-Positive
High Remaining Ownership	Even after completing all planned sales, Biswas and Bicket still hold approximately 186 million shares , representing more than 31% of total outstanding shares	Positive
Long-Term Holding	The co-founders have held shares since the company’s inception; this sale is only an adjustment to asset allocation	Positive
Financial Health	The company achieved GAAP profitability for the first time in Q3 FY2026, with revenue growing 29% year-over-year to $416 million[0]	Positive

Signal Type	Analysis	Weighting
Weak Stock Price Performance	The stock price has fallen approximately 45% from its 52-week high of $61.90, and is down 23.49% over the past year[0]	Negative
Timing of Sales	Selling at a relatively low stock price may reflect lack of confidence in a short-term rebound	Neutral-to-Negative
Large-Scale Sales	5 million shares are planned to be sold; increased supply may put pressure on the stock price	Negative
Divergent Analyst Ratings	25% of analysts have given a “Hold” rating, indicating divergence in views on the company’s prospects[0]	Neutral

Based on comparative analysis of historical data[2]:

• During Q1 2025, the total value of insider sales at Samsara ranked
  4th
  among peer companies
• Number of insiders participating in sales of over $1 million:
  8 people
• This reflects a widespread need for
  equity optimization
  among the company’s founding team

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Metric	Value	Year-Over-Year Change
Revenue	$416 million	+29%
ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)	$1.745 billion	+29%
GAAP Operating Margin	0%	Improved by 15 percentage points
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	19%	Increased by 9 percentage points
Adjusted Free Cash Flow	$55.8 million	+79%
Number of Key Clients (ARR > $100k)	2,990	219 added in the quarter[0]

Metric	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	$19.26 billion	-
P/E (TTM)	-456.17x	Loss-Making Company
P/B	14.82x	Relatively High
EV/ARR	~11x	Reasonable Range
Analyst Target Price	$50.00	Potential Upside of +48%[0]

• Market Position
  : Leader in the fleet management space; key clients with ARR > $100k contribute over
  $1 billion in ARR
• Product Stickiness
  : Among clients with ARR > $100k,
  95% use 2 or more products
  , and
  70% use 3 or more products
• AI Initiatives
  : Advancing the “Age of Intelligence” strategy, with AI features becoming a core selling point
• Profitability
  : Achieved GAAP profitability for the first time, proving the sustainability of the business model

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Signal Intensity Scoring Model (Full Score: 10 Points):
┌────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Factor                  │ Score │ Weight │ Contribution │
├────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  10b5-1 Compliance Plan  │  7   │ 20%  │ 1.4  │
│  High Founder Ownership  │  8   │ 20%  │ 1.6  │
│  Sales Purpose (Asset Allocation) │  7   │ 15%  │ 1.05 │
│  Healthy Company Fundamentals │  8   │ 25%  │ 2.0  │
│  Stock Price Decline Magnitude │  5   │ 20%  │ 1.0  │
├────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Composite Score         │      │ 100% │ 7.05 │
└────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Conclusion: Neutral-to-Positive Signal (7.05/10)

Investor Type	Strategy Recommendation	Rationale
Long-Term Value Investors	Consider phased position building	The founders’ sales are for asset allocation, not bearish sentiment; fundamentals are robust; target price implies 48% upside
Short-Term Traders	Wait and see or reduce positions	Technicals are weak; the insider sales cycle may continue to pressure the stock price
Risk-Averse Investors	Wait for Q4 Earnings Report	The next earnings report is on March 5, 2026; can observe the execution of the sales cycle
Growth Investors	Monitor AI Developments	The company’s “Age of Intelligence” AI strategy may become a catalyst for valuation re-rating

1. Insider Trading Frequency
   : Monitor whether 2026 sales are executed as planned
2. Q4 Earnings Guidance
   : Especially whether the sales cycle for key clients improves
3. Sustainability of ARR Growth
   : Whether it can maintain a growth rate of 25%+
4. Competitor Dynamics
   : Motive’s IPO progress and changes in the industry competitive landscape

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1. Bicket’s stock sales should not be simply interpreted as a negative signal
   :
   • Sold compliantly via a Rule 10b5-1 plan
   • The purpose is asset diversification, not based on non-public information
   • The founders still maintain ownership of more than
     31%
     of the company’s equity

2. Company fundamentals remain healthy
   :
   • Achieved GAAP profitability for the first time
   • Revenue grew 29%, with client count continuing to increase
   • Strong product stickiness and obvious platform effects

3. Risks and opportunities coexist
   :
   • Short-term stock price pressure (weak technicals, increased supply)
   • Long-term growth logic remains unchanged (AI empowerment, IoT penetration)
   • Analyst target price implies
     48%
     upside from current price

Evaluation Dimension	Rating
Insider Trading Signal	Neutral
Fundamental Health	Positive
Valuation Attractiveness	Neutral-to-Positive
Composite Investment Rating	Hold/Moderate Buy

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[0] Jinling AI Brokerage API Data - Samsara (IOT) Company Profile, Financial Data, Real-Time Quotes (2026-01-08)

[1] SEC.gov - Samsara Inc. Form 8-K (2026-01-06): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642896/000162828026000886/iot-20260106.htm

[2] StockTitan.net - Samsara (NYSE: IOT) outlines CEO and CTO 10b5-1 trading plans: https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/IOT/8-k-samsara-inc-reports-material-event-43d26908c852.html

[3] TipRanks - Samsara Executives Outline 2026 Insider Share Sale Plans: https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/samsara-executives-outline-2026-insider-share-sale-plans

[4] Yahoo Finance - Samsara Inc. (IOT) Among Stocks Insiders Were Selling in Q1 2025: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsara-inc-iot-among-stocks-092007848.html