Analysis of the Impact of the Potential Merger Between Glencore and Rio Tinto on the Global Mining Competitive Landscape and Iron Ore Market Pricing Power

According to the latest market information, Glencore and Rio Tinto have restarted merger negotiations in January 2026. The two companies confirmed that they are conducting preliminary discussions, which may result in an all-stock merger through Rio Tinto’s acquisition of Glencore, with the transaction size expected to exceed

, which is expected to become the largest M&A in the history of the global mining industry [1][2].

Company	Current Market Cap	Revenue Structure	Core Business
Rio Tinto	~$136.7 billion	Iron ore accounts for 61%	Iron ore, copper, aluminum
Glencore	~$49 billion	Coal accounts for 30%	Commodity trading, copper, coal

Rio Tinto is required to announce whether it will formally make a takeover offer by

. The two companies held similar negotiations in 2014 and 2024, both of which ended in failure [3][4].

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The merged super mining giant will have far-reaching market impacts:

Market Position	Current	Post-Merger
Industry Leader	BHP (market cap of $319.5 billion)	Merged Entity (≈$186 billion) vs. BHP
Second Tier	Rio Tinto, Vale, Glencore	Dual Dominance of Vale and BHP
Copper Mine Ranking	Fragmented	World’s 5th Largest Copper Miner

• 2025: Merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources ($53 billion)
• 2024: BHP attempted to acquire Anglo American ($49 billion)
• The global mining industry has officially entered the era of “stock resource competition” [5][6]

The strategic significance of the merger to the copper market is far greater than that to the iron ore market:

• Glencore owns the
  Collahuasi Copper Mine in Chile
  (one of the world’s largest copper mines), an asset that Rio Tinto has coveted for over a decade
• As a critical metal for energy transition, demand for copper continues to grow
• After the merger, the combined entity will become the world’s 5th largest copper miner with a market share of approximately 18%
• High-quality mines are increasingly scarce, making M&A the preferred expansion strategy [3][7]

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The current global iron ore market is highly monopolistic:

Indicator	Current Status
Production Share of the Four Major Miners	Approximately 47% (Vale 23%, Rio Tinto 21%, BHP 18%, FMG 16%)
Pricing Model	Index-based pricing (shifted from long-term contract pricing after 2010)
Cost Advantage of the Four Major Miners	Production cost < $20/ton (two-thirds of the global average cost)
Control of the Top 10 Mines	9 are controlled by the four major miners, accounting for 40% of global production [8][9]

• Glencore’s iron ore assets will strengthen Rio Tinto’s market position
• Market concentration may increase from 47% to approximately 52%
• A stronger price coordination mechanism may be formed

Country/Region	Steel Enterprise Concentration	Iron Ore Bargaining Power
China	CR10=35.3%	Weak
Japan	CR3=79.8%	Strong
South Korea	CR3=93.2%	Strong

China accounts for approximately 70% of global iron ore imports, but the low concentration of steel enterprises puts it at a disadvantage in pricing negotiations [8][10].

Although the merger may strengthen seller pricing power, the following factors will partially offset this impact:

1. New Production Capacity Launch
   : The Simandou project in Guinea, West Africa is expected to start production by the end of 2025
2. New Australian Production Capacity
   : New production capacities of FMG and Mineral Resources continue to ramp up
3. Slowing Chinese Demand
   : China’s steel production has continued to decline, leading to a structural weakening of iron ore demand
4. Cost Support Level
   : The cost support level for iron ore prices is in the $80-100/ton range [11]

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Company	Coal Strategy
Rio Tinto	Has completely exited the coal business, focusing on low-carbon transition
Glencore	Coal business contributes approximately 30% of cash flow, with 95% of shareholders supporting its retention

This is one of the core obstacles in the merger negotiations [1][4].

• Australia
  : Approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) is required
• UK
  : Regulated by the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers
• EU
  : May trigger antitrust review
• China
  : As the largest iron ore consumer, it may pay attention to market impacts

The approval process may take more than

, and asset divestitures may be required [12][13].

Dimension	Rio Tinto	Glencore
Gene	Mining producer	Commodity trader
Style	Conservative and prudent	Aggressive and risk-taking
Governance	Dual-listing structure	Listed in Switzerland

The core reason for the failure of the 2014 negotiations was the fundamental differences between the two parties in their understanding of the iron ore market and trader culture [3][5].

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• Renminbi Settlement for Iron Ore
  : The proportion has jumped from 19% to 28%, but pricing influence remains limited [10]
• Import Dependence
  : China’s iron ore import proportion has dropped from 70% to 58%
• Lack of Local Mining Giants
  : There is a lack of industry leaders capable of competing with international giants

1. Cultivate Local Mining Giants
   : Accelerate the integration of strategic mineral resource industries to create “industry leaders”
2. Increase Concentration of Steel Enterprises
   : Promote mergers and reorganizations to enhance bargaining power
3. Deepen Renminbi Settlement
   : Expand the application of CIPS in commodity trading
4. Diversify Procurement Channels
   : Strengthen cooperation with emerging resource countries in Africa, South America, etc.
5. Establish Strategic Reserves
   : Enhance resource security buffers

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If the potential merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto is successful, it will profoundly impact the global mining landscape in the following aspects:

Impact Dimension	Specific Performance
Industry Scale	Form a super mining giant with a market capitalization of over $260 billion
Market Concentration	Increased concentration in the iron ore market, strengthened position in the copper market
Pricing Power	May strengthen seller pricing power, but constrained by supply and demand changes
Integration Trend	Accelerates the global mining M&A wave and promotes further industry integration

• Coal asset disposal plan
• Antitrust regulatory approval
• Corporate cultural integration
• Evolution of the global iron ore supply and demand pattern

Regardless of the final outcome, this transaction will have a profound impact on the global mining competitive landscape and commodity pricing landscape. As the world’s largest iron ore consumer, China needs to closely monitor developments and adopt proactive response strategies.

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[1] Bloomberg - “Rio Tinto and Glencore Restart Talks to Create World’s Biggest Miner” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-08/rio-tinto-and-glencore-merger-talks-bondi-royal-commission-called)

[2] Financial Times - “FirstFT: Glencore and Rio Tinto restart talks on $260bn mining megadeal” (https://www.ft.com/content/3c9f8007-6692-457e-8d44-2ae461f7f156)

[3] ABC News - “Glencore and Rio Tinto back in merger talks” (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-09/asx-markets-business-live-news-jan-2025-9/106212732)

[4] Glencore Official Statement - “Statement regarding Rio Tinto - Glencore” (https://www.glencore.com/media-and-insights/news/statement-regarding-rio-tinto)

[5] Xinde Marine News - “Rio Tinto Acquires Glencore? The Largest M&A in Mining History!” (https://www.xindemarinenews.com/world/58147.html)

[6] China Steel News Network - “The Second Largest Mining M&A in History is Basically Finalized” (http://www.csteelnews.com/xwzx/hydt/202510/t20251029_104790.html)

[7] Seeking Alpha - “BHP: Record Copper Prices Could Give This Mining Giant A Second Engine” (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4858058-bhp-record-copper-prices-could-give-this-mining-giant-a-second-engine)

[8] China Metallurgical Mining Enterprises Association - “How is the Iron Ore Market Priced” (https://www.mmac.org.cn/topic/660485957)

[9] Securities Times - “Vale Launches Revival Plan: Regain the Title of World’s Largest Miner Within Five Years” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/2479884.html)

[10] Tencent News - “Will the Renminbi Reshape the Resource Map? —— China Enters the ‘DeepSeek Moment’ of Resource Pricing Power” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251015A05B7P00)

[11] BHP Official - “Economic and commodity outlook” (https://www.bhp.com/investors/economic-and-commodity-outlook/2025/08/economic-and-commodity-outlook)

[12] Marketsandmarkets - “Rio Tinto and Glencore Merger Talks Signal a New Era for Global Mining” (https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/industry-news/Rio-Tinto-and-Glencore-Merger-Talks-Signal-a-New-Era-for-Global-Mining)

[13] Quinn Emanuel - “Client Alert: Key EU Competition Law Developments: 2025 Overview and 2026 Predictions” (https://www.quinnemanuel.com/the-firm/publications/client-alert-key-eu-competition-law-developments-2025-overview-and-2026-predictions/)