Analysis of the Significance of Signals from the Transaction Volume Surpassing 2 Trillion Yuan in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges

Now I will provide a systematic analysis of the significance of this market signal.

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Based on the latest market data, the A-share market exhibited the following characteristics on January 8, 2025 [1][2]:

Indicator	Data	Notes
Transaction Volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges	2.82 trillion yuan	Exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for 4 consecutive trading days
Shanghai Composite Index	4082.98 points	15 consecutive positive daily K-lines, setting a historical record
Number of Rising Stocks	Over 3,700	Accounting for approximately 70% of total stocks
Number of Stocks Trading at Daily Limit	Over 100	Reflects active market sentiment

: This is the highest transaction volume since September 18, 2025, and ranks as the 8th highest peak in the nearly 1.5-year market rally since the “924” event in 2024 [3].

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A continuous surge in transaction volume usually reflects accelerated inflow of off-market capital. Data shows [3][4]:

• Continuous Net Inflow of ETF Capital
  : From January 2 to January 7, the cumulative net inflow of equity ETFs reached nearly
  40 billion yuan
• Margin Trading Balance Hits New High
  : As of January 5, the margin trading balance rose to 2.54 trillion yuan, continuously setting new historical records
• Strong New Account Opening Data
  : The total number of new A-share investor accounts opened in 2025 reached
  27.4369 million
  , representing a 9.75% increase compared to 2024

This surge comes against the backdrop of transaction volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 70 consecutive trading days [4][5]:

Sentiment Indicator	Status
Profit-making Effect	Significant (approximately 70% of stocks rose)
Sector Rotation	Hot sectors such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, and AI applications are active
Number of Daily Limit Stocks	Remained at a high level (70-100+ stocks)

The current market liquidity is at a historically abundant level [4][6]:

• Wind All-A Share Trailing P/E Ratio
  : 17.85x (offers valuation appeal)
• CSI 300 Trailing P/E Ratio
  : 12.49x (in the historical low range)
• Risk-Free Rate of Return
  : Continuing to decline, enhancing the allocation value of equity assets

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Supporting Factor	Specific Performance
Strong Technical Outlook	The Shanghai Composite Index’s 15 consecutive positive K-lines set a historical record, reflecting strong bullish momentum
Policy Expectations	A policy lull before the 2025 “Two Sessions” suggests a potential spring market rally
Easy Liquidity Conditions	Loose monetary policy and continued expansion of fiscal policy
Valuation Support	Valuations of major indices are at historically low percentiles

Risk Point	Analysis
Short-Term Correction Pressure	Demand for technical correction increases after consecutive positive trading days
External Disturbances	Rising external uncertainties in the second half of January (tariffs, reflation)
Main Force Capital Flow	Signs of net outflow of main force capital in the early stage (23 consecutive trading days of net outflow) [6]
Sector Divergence	Correction in the financial sector coexists with active performance of theme stocks

“The combined signal of intensified market divergence and shrinking trading volume has further amplified cautious sentiment in the market. The current A-share market may not immediately enter a full-scale correction, but increased short-term volatility is highly likely.” [2]

“The 2025 A-share market will exhibit characteristics of more prominent liquidity and volatility; it is necessary to wait and observe the intensity and implementation effect of policies.” [4]

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Capital Type	Flow Characteristics
Margin Traders	Continuous inflow; single-day net purchase amount on January 5 hit a new high in nearly 2 months
ETF Capital	Broad-based ETFs continue to attract capital; trading volume surged for products such as HuaTai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF
Retail Investor Capital	New account opening data confirms enthusiasm for market entry
Insurance Capital	A predictable source of incremental capital before the Spring Festival

Key sectors with concentrated capital inflow this week [3]:

Industry	MoM Growth in Average Daily Transaction Volume
Non-bank Financials	+108%
Biomedical	+73%
Media	+68%
Electronics	Over 30%
Petroleum and Petrochemicals	Over 30%

22 stocks recorded single-day transaction volume exceeding 10 billion yuan this week, mainly concentrated in [3]:

• Electronics, National Defense and Military Industry, Electric Power Equipment
• 60% on the Main Board, 36% on the ChiNext Board, 4% on the STAR Market

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Dimension	Expectation
Trend Characteristics	Fluctuating upward with increased volatility
Support Level	4000-point integer mark
Resistance Level	4100-4200 point range
Transaction Volume	Remain at a high level above 2 trillion yuan

Style	Recommendation
Large-Cap Value	Relatively dominant (trading costs are rising, making it difficult for small-cap style to sustain)
Cyclical Sectors	Focus on industries related to liquidity characteristics such as finance and TMT
Thematic Investment	Focus on hot themes such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, AI applications, and controllable nuclear fusion

• Potential technical correction after consecutive positive trading days
• Pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic data disclosure in late January on the market
• Uncertainties from external factors (Fed policy, geopolitics)

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The transaction volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges surpassing 2 trillion yuan and hitting a new high for the year releases the following core signals:

1. Capital Flow Signal
   : Incremental capital continues to flow into the market, market liquidity is abundant, with ETF and margin trading capital as the main sources of increment
2. Sentiment Signal
   : Investors’ risk appetite has increased, the market’s profit-making effect is significant, and hot sectors are rotating actively
3. Fundamental Signal
   : Valuations are attractive, and indices have medium-to-long-term valuation support
4. Short-Term Trend Signal
   : The market is in a strong pattern, but vigilance is needed against technical corrections after consecutive positive trading days; volatility is expected to increase

: It is recommended that investors remain rationally optimistic, control positions within a reasonable range, focus on low-valued large-cap blue chips and liquidity-driven technology growth sectors, moderately participate in thematic investment opportunities, and manage risks effectively.

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[1] Wall Street CN - Shanghai Composite Index Posts 15 Consecutive Gains, Commercial Aerospace Sector Continues to Surge (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762802)

[2] Investing.com - A-Shares Record 15 Consecutive Gains, Shanghai Composite Index Closes Down 0.07%, Transaction Volume Surpasses 2.5 Trillion Yuan for 4 Consecutive Days (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3156053)

[3] Cailianshe - Capital in Full Swing! 2 Trillion Yuan Transaction Volume Gradually Becomes the Norm for A-Shares (https://9fzt.com/common/dce358623784af69bfe06fa33a39e32f.html)

[4] Xinhua News Agency - A-Shares Rebound After Dip, Transaction Volume Exceeds 1 Trillion Yuan for 70 Consecutive Trading Days (http://www.news.cn/20250109/2f684160b31145aa82645ce2781caff9/c.html)

[5] CNR Finance - A-Shares Correct, Shanghai Composite Index Records 15 Consecutive Gains (https://finance.cnr.cn/ycbd/20260108/t20260108_527487063.shtml)

[6] Securities Times - Capital Sentiment Remains Cautious as A-Shares Correct with Surge in Transaction Volume (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1477878.html)