In-Depth Analysis of the Reasons for the Sharp First-Day Gains of Minimax and Zhipu AI Upon Listing

At the start of 2026, the HKEX welcomed two highly anticipated AI large model stocks. Zhipu AI listed first on January 8, with an issue price of HK$116.2. It closed 13.17% higher on its first day at HK$131.5, with a market capitalization of approximately HK$57.9 billion [1]. The next day, Minimax listed on the HKEX with an issue price of HK$165, surging 42.6% at the opening bell to HK$235.4, hitting an intraday high of HK$275.6 with a 67% increase, and its market capitalization exceeded HK$85.2 billion [3]. The two “large model concept stocks” listed in quick succession, creating a strong sector effect and topic buzz in the Hong Kong stock market.

From the perspective of capital market reactions, dark trading had already foreshadowed the sharp gains of the two companies. Zhipu AI closed 11.88% higher in dark trading, while Minimax closed 24.61% higher in dark trading [5][8]. Notably, Zhipu AI continued to surge 17.11% on the second trading day after listing, indicating the market’s continued optimism about this sector [5]. This rally not only marked a strong start for Hong Kong stock IPOs in 2026 but also injected a shot in the arm into the long-stagnant Hong Kong stock IPO subscription market.

Zhipu AI made history by becoming the world’s first listed company with a core business focused on general artificial intelligence (AGI) foundation models. This “first stock” label carries significant symbolic meaning and market value [1]. As a company spun off from the Knowledge Engineering Group (KEG) of the Department of Computer Science and Technology at Tsinghua University, Zhipu AI shoulders an important mission of commercializing China’s AI technology. Its academic origins and technical foundation add unique appeal to the market [2].

Minimax set another record, becoming the global AI large model company with the largest issuance scale in the past four years, with an IPO fundraising scale exceeding HK$4.8 billion [3]. The two companies listed only one day apart, forming the first cluster of listed large model companies under the framework of HKEX Chapter 18C (Listing Rules for Specialist Technology Companies), which is highly scarce [7]. The market’s valuation logic for such companies has transcended traditional financial indicators, and instead focuses more on core competitive elements such as model iteration speed, developer ecosystem construction, government and enterprise implementation capabilities, and technological leading advantages.

The oversubscription multiples of both companies set historical records in Hong Kong stocks. Zhipu AI received 1159.46 times oversubscription in the Hong Kong public offering and 15.28 times oversubscription in the international offering; Minimax saw even more staggering figures, with 1837.17 times oversubscription in the Hong Kong public offering and 36.76 times oversubscription in the international offering [1][5]. Such a high level of oversubscription reflects institutional investors’ extreme pursuit of the AI track and strong allocation demand for high-quality targets.

The cornerstone investor lineup is also star-studded. Zhipu AI introduced 11 cornerstone investors, with a subscription amount of HK$2.98 billion, accounting for nearly 70% of the total fundraising, including well-known institutions such as JSC International Investment Fund, Shanghai Gaoyi Asset Management, and Taikang Life Insurance [4]. Minimax introduced 14 cornerstone investors, including the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Alibaba Group, and E Fund Management, with an even more luxurious lineup [5]. The endorsement of these top-tier institutions not only provides stable chip supply for the IPO but also sends a signal to the market about recognition of the company’s long-term value.

The shareholder backgrounds of both companies are extremely impressive, reflecting the long-term optimism of internet giants and first-tier VCs about China’s AI development. Early shareholders of Zhipu AI include internet giants such as Meituan, Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, and Kingsoft, as well as first-tier VCs such as Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, and Fortune Capital, with cumulative financing exceeding RMB 8.3 billion [1][6]. Minimax has received investments from well-known institutions such as miHoYo, Alibaba Group, Tencent, Xiaohongshu, Hillhouse Capital, IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital, Matrix Partners China, Ming Ventures, and CloudAlpha Capital [3]. Such a shareholder structure not only provides financial support but also brings rich industrial resources and strategic synergy opportunities.

Both companies have shown strong growth momentum in their commercialization processes. Zhipu AI’s three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of revenue reached 130%: its revenue was RMB 57.4 million in 2022, increased to RMB 124.5 million in 2023, exceeded RMB 312.4 million in 2024, and reached RMB 190.9 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year surge of 325% [1]. Minimax’s growth was even more rapid: its revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 reached US$53.44 million, a year-on-year increase of 174%; its MaaS (Model as a Service) business grew by over 900%; and its ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) exceeded RMB 500 million, achieving a 25-fold increase [5][8].

Such growth rates are difficult to replicate in the traditional internet industry, reflecting that AI technology is rapidly penetrating the digital transformation process of various industries. The market’s willingness to assign a high valuation is precisely the forward pricing of the sustainability of such growth.

The two companies show obvious differentiated characteristics in their commercialization paths. Zhipu AI focuses on the To B market, adopting the “MaaS + local deployment” model. In the first half of 2025, its local deployment revenue was approximately RMB 162 million, accounting for 84.8% of total revenue [5]. This model helps establish a stable revenue base and long-term customer relationships, but it also faces challenges such as high customization costs and long delivery cycles.

Minimax focuses on the To C market, with revenue from C-side AI native products accounting for as high as 71.1% [5]. Its products such as Conch AI, Talkie/Hoshino have performed outstandingly in overseas markets, with overseas revenue accounting for over 70%, demonstrating strong cross-regional expansion capabilities [3]. Although the To C model faces issues such as high user acquisition costs and long monetization cycles, once scale effect is established, marginal costs will be significantly reduced, and user stickiness and lifetime value will also be significantly improved.

Based on 2024 revenue, Zhipu AI is the largest independent general large model developer in China in terms of revenue scale, ranking second among all general large model developers with a market share of 6.6% [7]. Its open-source GLM series has been downloaded more than 60 million times globally, building an active developer ecosystem [1]. As a technological inheritor of Tsinghua University’s Knowledge Engineering Group, Zhipu AI has profound accumulation in basic technology fields such as knowledge graphs and natural language processing, which provides a solid foundation for its competition in the large model era.

Minimax is one of only four full-modal AI companies in the world and has entered the first echelon [3]. More notably, Minimax has achieved global leadership with less than 1% of OpenAI’s investment, demonstrating extremely high R&D efficiency and technical execution capabilities [3]. Full-modal capabilities (multi-modal fusion of text, images, voice, video, etc.) are a necessary path to general artificial intelligence, and Minimax’s layout in this area has placed it in a favorable position in future technological competition.

According to a UNCTAD report, the global AI market is expected to surge from US$189 billion in 2023 to US$4.8 trillion in 2033, growing 25-fold in a decade [3]. This huge market space provides strong growth expectations and valuation support for AI companies. As the world’s second-largest AI market, China has unique advantages in policy support, data resources, application scenarios, etc., and local AI companies have broad growth space.

From November to December 2025, the phenomenon of Hong Kong stock IPOs breaking their issue prices emerged, making investors more cautious about subscribing to new IPOs. However, the sharp first-day gains of these two companies may rekindle enthusiasm for Hong Kong stock IPO subscriptions [9]. From a longer-term perspective, the launch of HKEX Chapter 18C provides a new financing channel for specialist technology companies, and the successful listing of these two companies has also established a valuation benchmark and demonstration effect for subsequent AI companies listing in Hong Kong.

Despite rapid revenue growth, both companies are still in a stage of high-intensity R&D investment, and their loss situation is difficult to reverse in the short term. Zhipu AI’s cumulative net loss from 2022 to 2024 reached as high as RMB 3.89 billion, and its R&D expenditure in the first half of 2025 reached RMB 1.595 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85.6% [7]. Minimax’s loss in the first three quarters of 2025 was US$512 million, a year-on-year increase of 68.3%, with a cumulative loss of US$808 million in the past three years [5]. Behind the huge losses is continuous investment in computing power, talents, and data, and the scale effect of the AI industry has not yet been fully realized.

Computing power service expenditure accounts for a relatively high proportion of R&D investment. Zhipu AI’s computing power service expenditure in the first half of 2025 reached as high as RMB 1.145 billion [7]. Against the background of restricted international chip supply, computing power costs have become a key bottleneck restricting the development of AI enterprises. Although domestic GPU alternatives are accelerating, the performance gap and ecological adaptation still need time to improve.

According to calculations by Soochow Securities, based on the IPO pricing, Zhipu AI’s expected 2026 price-to-sales (PS) ratio is about 30 times, which is higher than that of some peer AI companies [8]. High valuation means the market has high expectations for the company’s future growth, and any underperformance may trigger sharp stock price adjustments. For investors, it is necessary to remain rational amid optimistic sentiment and deeply understand the company’s core competitiveness and long-term value creation capabilities.

Competition in the AI large model track is becoming increasingly fierce. Tech giants such as ByteDance and Alibaba continue to increase their investment, and their resource advantages and ecological synergy have placed them in a favorable position in the competition. Meanwhile, competitors such as Moonshot AI have chosen to suspend their listing and focus on primary market financing, and domestic GPU companies such as Moore Threads and Muxi Semiconductor have also joined the fray [1]. Zhipu AI and Minimax need to continue investing in technological innovation, commercialization implementation, and ecosystem construction to cope with competitive pressures from all aspects.

The sharp first-day gains of Minimax and Zhipu AI are the result of the combined effect of multiple factors. From the supply side, the scarcity of the “world’s first large model stock”, the luxurious investment lineup, and the extreme enthusiasm of institutional investors have jointly driven the popularity of the IPO; from the demand side, the explosive growth expectations of the AI industry, differentiated business models, and leading technological advantages have provided support for high valuations.

In the short term, the first-day performance of the two companies reflects the market’s extreme optimism about the AI track, and enthusiasm for Hong Kong stock IPO subscriptions is expected to be reignited. However, in the medium to long term, sustained high R&D investment, fierce industry competition, and unfulfilled profit expectations are still risk factors that need attention. Investors should closely monitor the commercialization progress and technological iteration capabilities of the two companies, and maintain prudent judgment amid optimistic sentiment.

For the development of China’s AI industry, the successful listing of these two companies is a milestone. It proves the feasibility of AI large model commercialization and also provides financing channels and valuation references for subsequent enterprises. Against the background of policy support, capital favor, and strong market demand, China’s AI industry is expected to usher in a new round of development opportunities.