Analysis of Kweichow Moutai's Price Falling Below 1,499 Yuan and the Trend of the Baijiu Sector

This analysis is based on market reports in early January 2026 [1][2][3]. Since Kweichow Moutai’s official app “iMoutai” launched sales of 53% ABV 500ml Feitian Moutai at the official guided price of 1,499 yuan per bottle on January 1, 2026, there have been consecutive “instant sell-out” occurrences for multiple days, yet the market wholesale price has again fallen below the 1,499 yuan threshold, reflecting a divergence between channel prices and official pricing. Kweichow Moutai’s stock price dropped from 1,451 yuan in early December 2025 to 1,418 yuan on January 9, 2026, with a decline of approximately 2.27%, and the entire Baijiu sector is under pressure [0]. Institutions generally believe that the industry is approaching the bottom range, valuations are at an extremely low historical level, and medium- to long-term allocation value is gradually emerging, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the verification of Spring Festival sales momentum and the progress of channel inventory digestion [4][5][6].

Starting from January 1, 2026, Kweichow Moutai’s official app “iMoutai” officially launched sales of 53% ABV 500ml Feitian Moutai at the official guided price of 1,499 yuan per bottle [1][2]. After the implementation of this measure, significant structural changes have emerged in the market: on one hand, the iMoutai platform has seen consecutive “instant sell-out” days, with over 100,000 users successfully purchasing the product between January 1 and 3 [1]; on the other hand, the wholesale price of loose bottles of 2025-vintage Feitian Moutai fell below the 1,499 yuan threshold again on January 4, dropping by approximately 100 yuan per bottle compared to a week prior [2][3]. Currently, the scalper recycling price remains in the range of 1,400-1,450 yuan per bottle, and arbitrage space has basically disappeared.

From the price trend, Moutai’s price experienced a sharp decline in early December 2025, then rebounded briefly to 1,600 yuan per bottle due to market news of supply control, and remained around 1,565 yuan per bottle on December 31. However, after entering January 2026, against the backdrop of continuous volume increase on iMoutai, the wholesale price declined again [2]. This situation, where the official channel sees “instant sell-out” while the wholesale market is under price pressure, reflects the market’s re-pricing of Moutai’s real supply and demand relationship. The increase in direct sales channels has directly impacted the original channel profit margin, suppressing the arbitrage behavior of scalpers and distributors, and the terminal price discovery function is being reshaped.

From the perspective of stock performance, Kweichow Moutai has faced significant pressure in the recent market environment. According to market data, within the 28 trading days from December 1, 2025, to January 9, 2026, Kweichow Moutai’s stock price dropped from 1,451.00 yuan to 1,418.03 yuan, with a cumulative decline of 2.27%, and hit an intraday low of 1,377.17 yuan during the period [0]. From a longer-term perspective, Kweichow Moutai has seen a cumulative decline of 32.46% over 5 years, reflecting the systematic adjustment of market valuations for high-end baijiu over the past few years.

Indicator	Value
Stock Price (January 9, 2026)	1,418.07 yuan
1-Month Price Change	+1.22%
3-Month Price Change	-1.30%
1-Year Price Change	-1.80%
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (TTM)	19.73x
Price-to-Book Ratio	6.91x
Net Profit Margin	51.51%
Return on Equity (ROE)	36.48%

Fundamentally, Kweichow Moutai’s earnings per share (EPS) in Q3 2025 was $15.37, which was lower than the market expectation of $16.23, representing a negative surprise of 5.30%; operating revenue was $39.81 billion, lower than the expected $40.83 billion, with a decline of 2.50% [0]. Nevertheless, the company still maintains extremely high profitability, with a net profit margin exceeding 51% and ROE reaching 36.48%, demonstrating strong brand barriers and pricing power.

The Baijiu sector has generally been under pressure recently, with stock prices of major liquor companies falling to varying degrees [0]:

Stock Code	Stock Name	Period Price Change	Period Low Price	Period High Price
600519	Kweichow Moutai	-2.27%	1,377.17 yuan	1,462.27 yuan
000858	Wuliangye	-3.25%	105.61 yuan	113.75 yuan
000568	Luzhou Laojiao	-4.19%	115.52 yuan	125.68 yuan

From the full-year performance in 2025, the Baijiu sector has experienced a more in-depth adjustment: Kweichow Moutai fell by 6.47% cumulatively, Wuliangye fell by 19.57% cumulatively, and Yanghe Co., Ltd., Gujing Gongjiu, Jinzishui Wine, Shuijingfang, etc., all fell by over 20% [6]. This sector-wide decline reflects the market’s full pricing of the downward cycle of the baijiu industry.

: According to industry analysis reports [6], the proportion of institutional holdings has dropped to a historical low: the proportion of baijiu stocks in the heavy holdings of northbound funds fell by 1.66 percentage points month-on-month in Q3 2025; the number of baijiu targets in the top 20 heavy holdings of active funds decreased; and main funds showed a net outflow status, reflecting insufficient confidence of institutions in the baijiu sector.

Currently, the fundamentals of the baijiu industry are in a period of in-depth adjustment. In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating revenue of the baijiu sector fell by 5.83% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 6.94%, with the single-quarter revenue decline hitting a new low since 2012 [6]. Performance forecasts of liquor companies such as Kouzijiao show that net profit in 2025 will decrease by 50%-60% year-on-year, and the industry is under obvious overall pressure [6].

However, from a valuation perspective, the current baijiu sector is already at an extremely low historical level [4][5]:

Indicator	Current Value	Historical Percentile
Sub-food Index P/E Ratio	19.75x	2.94% percentile in 10 years
Baijiu Sector P/E Ratio	22.27x	36% percentile
Baijiu Sector P/B Ratio	3.34x	0.13% percentile

The P/B ratio of the baijiu sector has dropped to the 0.13% percentile, meaning that only 0.13% of the time in history has the valuation been lower than the current level, and the margin of safety has significantly improved [5]. Kweichow Moutai’s P/E ratio is about 19.75x, which is also in the 10-year low range, with good medium- to long-term allocation value.

The launch of the iMoutai platform marks a major transformation in Kweichow Moutai’s channel strategy. By directly reaching consumers through official direct sales channels, Moutai is reshaping its sales system. This transformation has multiple far-reaching impacts:

First, the increase in direct sales channels directly improves the quality of Moutai’s revenue and profit level, reducing profit sharing in the middleman links. Second, the stable supply of official channels suppresses the wholesale market price, forcing channel merchants to adjust profit expectations. Third, this channel transformation may trigger industry imitation, promoting the restructuring of the channel pattern in the baijiu industry. From an investment perspective, Moutai’s channel transformation may trigger price fluctuations and performance disturbances in the short term, but in the medium to long term, it will help enhance the company’s control over the terminal market and pricing power.

The adjustment of the baijiu industry is not homogeneous, but shows significant structural differentiation characteristics. High-end baijiu, relying on strong brand barriers and scarce supply attributes, has a relatively limited adjustment range; while mid-to-high-end and regional liquor companies are facing more severe competitive pressure [6].

This differentiation is reflected in multiple dimensions: in terms of price, although Moutai’s wholesale price has fallen below 1,499 yuan, it still maintains a price band above 1,000 yuan, while price competition in the mid-to-high-end baijiu segment is more intense; in terms of performance, although the growth rate of leading liquor companies has slowed down, they still maintain profitability, while some small and medium-sized liquor companies have seen a sharp decline in performance or even losses; in terms of valuation, the valuation premium of high-quality leading companies is narrowing, but their relative fundamental advantages still exist.

Currently, the baijiu industry is in the downward phase of the inventory cycle. Data from Q3 2025 shows that the cash collection of the baijiu industry fell by 26.7%, which is greater than the revenue decline [6], reflecting channel inventory pressure and reduced willingness of distributors to make payments. The digestion of channel inventory takes time, which is also an important factor restricting the valuation recovery of the industry.

However, from another perspective, the accelerated inventory destocking also means that the industry bottom is gradually being consolidated. China Merchants Securities pointed out [6] that the baijiu industry has now entered the middle stage of the “enterprise suffering period”, with financial report pressure having been reflected for 4 quarters, and the industrial level is also accelerating clearance. This means that the worst period of the industry may be passing, but the darkness before dawn still requires patience.

The reform of consumption tax is a potential policy risk hanging over the baijiu industry. If the consumption tax reform is implemented, it may have a significant impact on the industry profit structure, but the specific plan has not yet been clarified [6]. From a positive perspective, “adhering to domestic demand-led” has become the core task of economic work, and the consumer industry is expected to receive policy support [5], which provides a macro background support for the medium- to long-term development of the baijiu industry.

: Performance forecasts of liquor companies such as Kouzijiao show that net profit in 2025 will decrease by 50%-60% year-on-year, and the industry is under obvious overall pressure [6]. Kweichow Moutai’s Q3 2025 financial report also showed that both revenue and profit were lower than expected, and fundamentals have not yet fully stabilized.

: The baijiu industry is in a period of in-depth adjustment, and the decline in cash collection is greater than the revenue decline, reflecting channel inventory pressure and tight capital chains. The channel adjustment cycle may be longer than expected, forming a continuous drag on the short-term performance of enterprises.

: The downward trend of Moutai’s price may squeeze other high-end baijiu brands in the 1,000-yuan price band (such as Wuliangye, National Cellar 1573), triggering industry-wide price competition [2]. If the price war spreads, it will further compress the industry’s profit margin.

: Although the valuation of the baijiu sector is at a historical low, low valuation does not necessarily mean investment opportunities before fundamentals are fully stabilized. If the industry cycle is further extended or performance continues to decline, valuations may face downward revision pressure.

: Rumors about consumption tax reform have not yet been implemented. If negative policies are introduced, it may impact industry valuations and profits.

: The current valuation of the baijiu sector has pulled back to a relatively low historical level, and the stock price trend has fully reflected market sentiment, with a significant improvement in the margin of safety [5]. If the industry fundamentals stabilize, there is room for valuation recovery.

: With the accelerated clearance of the industry, the exit of small and medium-sized liquor companies will reduce market competition, which is conducive to the expansion of market share of leading liquor companies and the optimization of the industry pattern [5].

: The actual sales performance during the 2026 Spring Festival will be a key verification point. If the Spring Festival sales performance exceeds expectations, it may become a catalyst for industry valuation recovery [4].

: The awareness of shareholder returns among liquor companies has significantly increased, and the value attribute is gradually emerging [5]. Some liquor companies have increased dividend rates or implemented share repurchases, providing certain cash returns for investors.

: Moutai increases revenue and profits through direct sales channels, which will help improve the company’s profit quality and market control in the medium to long term [2].

Time Window	Key Focus Areas	Expected Impact
1-3 Months	Spring Festival sales data, Moutai’s wholesale price trend	Short-term sentiment verification; if it exceeds expectations, it can drive valuation recovery
3-6 Months	Channel inventory destocking, Q1 financial report performance	Verification of fundamental stabilization; determines the medium-term trend direction
6-12 Months	Consumption tax policy, changes in industry pattern	Structural opportunities emerge; leading advantages are expected to be strengthened

Based on this analysis, the following key information requires focused attention:

: Moutai’s wholesale price falling below 1,499 yuan reflects the adjustment of market supply and demand. The “instant sell-out” phenomenon on the iMoutai platform indicates that real consumer demand still exists, but channel profit margins are being compressed [1][2][3]. Kweichow Moutai’s strategic transformation of directly reaching consumers through direct sales channels is reshaping the industry’s channel pattern.

: The valuation of the baijiu sector is at an extremely low historical level, with the sub-food index P/E ratio at the 2.94% percentile in 10 years [5], and the margin of safety is relatively high. However, the industry fundamentals have not yet fully stabilized, with both operating revenue and net profit declining in the first three quarters of 2025 [6], and the confirmation of the performance bottom still takes time.

: Mainstream institutions believe that the baijiu industry is approaching the bottom, and 2026 is expected to see a recovery [4][5]. Leading liquor companies have launched market-oriented adjustments, the channel ecosystem is being repaired, and the fundamentals are approaching the bottom or have layout value. However, some institutions also remind that the industry is still in the middle stage of the “enterprise suffering period” [6], and patience is required.

: The baijiu industry has been adjusted for consecutive years. Although valuations are at historical lows, the full stabilization of fundamentals still requires time to verify. When making decisions, investors should combine their own risk tolerance, carefully evaluate the industry cycle position and individual stock fundamental changes, and pay attention to key variables such as Spring Festival sales, channel inventory digestion, and consumption tax policies.

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: This report provides information collection, analysis, and market background to support decision-making. It is not investment advice, trading recommendations, or financial guidance. The analysis aims to objectively present factual information, market background, and risk identification, and does not provide prescriptive advice on buying, selling, or holding securities.