In-Depth Analysis Report on Spot Silver Breaking Through $78/Ounce

Now let me synthesize all data to provide you with a professional analysis report.

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Spot silver broke through the $78/ounce level on January 6, 2026, hitting an intraday high of $79.34/ounce, a recent price peak [1][2]. In fact, silver prices soared to

on January 7, just one step away from the all-time high of $83.94 [3]. For the full year 2025, silver prices rose by approximately , making it one of the best-performing commodities [4].

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The continued weakness of the US Dollar Index is the

of silver price gains. For the full year 2025, the US Dollar Index fell by approximately , its worst annual performance since 2017 [5][6]. Entering 2026, the weak USD trend continued, with the US Dollar Index at 98.21 on January 2, extending its decline [5].

• Fed Rate Cut Expectations Intensified
  : The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 2-3 times (25 basis points each) in 2026, with the federal funds rate target range expected to fall to 2.75%-3.00% by September 2026 [5]
• Monetary Policy Divergence
  : Major central banks such as the European Central Bank may keep interest rates unchanged or even raise them, and interest rate differentials continue to weigh on the USD [6]
• Trump Factor
  : The new US administration has clearly stated its desire to lower interest rates to 1% or even lower, and plans to nominate candidates who support sharp rate cuts to serve as Fed Chair [5]

Silver’s

is emerging as a new dominant pricing logic. According to the World Silver Association, industrial silver demand accounted for over of total demand in 2025, with significant growth in photovoltaic (PV) industry silver demand [4][7].

Indicator	2021	2024	Change
Proportion of PV silver in total demand	8%	17%	+9 percentage points
Global PV silver consumption	-	6146 tons	Surge YoY
Silver consumption per unit installed capacity	Relatively high	Significantly reduced (popularization of N-type cell technology)	Technological iteration

• Silver demand from new energy vehicle electrification systems continues to grow
• Silver demand from AI computing infrastructure (high-performance chips, server connectors) is surging
• 5G communication base station construction drives industrial silver demand

The silver market has seen a supply deficit for

[8]:

Year	Supply-Demand Gap (Tons)
2022	7,762
2023	6,240
2024	4,632
2025	3,660
2026 (Forecast)	7,000-8,000

Supply growth is significantly sluggish, while demand has seen obvious increments, with industrial demand becoming the core growth engine [7].

: Starting from January 1, 2026, China implemented a stricter license management system for silver exports. Only large compliant enterprises with an annual output of over 80 tons are eligible to apply for export quotas, with only 44 enterprises finally shortlisted [8][9].

• As the world’s largest silver refiner and an important producer, China’s move will significantly tighten global silver supply
• Silver is listed as a strategic basic material for the “Three New Products” (PV, new energy vehicles)
• Supply constraints are further strengthened, which may push up the global silver price center

[10]:

• 2026 silver price forecast: Raised by
  65%
  to
  $75/ounce
• 2027 silver price forecast: Raised by
  44%
  to
  $65/ounce
• Analysts note: The Fed’s rate cut cycle will provide a favorable backdrop for precious metals through a weaker USD and hedging demand against upside inflation risks

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Indicator	Current Value	Signal Interpretation
20-Day Moving Average	$77.50	Price above moving average, medium-term bullish bias
50-Day Moving Average	$74.86	Price above moving average, uptrend intact
RSI(14)	~71	Overbought Zone , watch for pullback
MACD	1.45 (Golden Cross)	Bullish momentum continues
Bollinger Band Upper Track	$82.60	Price approaching upper track

• $78.00
  : Effectively broken, turned from resistance to support
• $79.00
  : Short-term target (+2.6%)
• $80.00
  : Medium-term target (+3.9%)
• $82.77
  : January 7 high (+7.4%)
• $83.94
  : All-time high (+9.0%)

• $77.05
  : 50% retracement level, key observation point
• $75.00
  : Important psychological level
• $73.24
  : Uptrend line support
• $70.00
  : Round number level

Scenario	Target Price	Gain	Trigger Conditions
Conservative Scenario	$80	+3.9%	Moderate USD weakening + stable industrial demand
Neutral Scenario	$83	+7.8%	Accelerated USD decline + widening supply gap
Optimistic Scenario	$85+	+10%+	Break above all-time high + surge in safe-haven demand

1. If the US Dollar Index breaks below the 98 level and continues to weaken, silver is expected to challenge the
   $83-85
   range
2. If the supply gap widens to 7,000-8,000 tons as predicted, it will provide solid support for silver prices
3. A break above the all-time high of $83.94 could open up upside potential above
   $90

• Technical indicators show short-term overbought, with possible
  2-5%
  pullback pressure [1][3]
• A periodic rebound in the US Dollar Index could trigger profit-taking
• Large-scale progress in PV “silver reduction” technologies (silver-coated copper, copper plating) may impact demand expectations [7]

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Dimension	Assessment
Long-term Trend	Bullish - Tightening supply-demand structure
Medium-term Trend	Bullish - Trading above all moving averages
Short-term Trend	Neutral-Bullish - Overbought with pullback needs

• Consider phased position building on pullbacks to the
  $75-76
  range
• Strictly stop loss if effectively breaking below
  $73
• Target levels are
  $80
  ,
  $83.94
  , and above
  $85
  sequentially

• Suggest allocating
  5-10%
  of the portfolio
• Adopt a
  pyramid averaging-up
  strategy
• Strictly set a
  3-5%
  stop loss level

Focus Area	Specific Indicators
Macro	US Dollar Index trend, Fed rate decisions, non-farm payrolls data
Supply-Demand	Global silver inventory changes, actual implementation of China’s export quotas
Technical	Effectiveness of $78 support, RSI falling below 70, MACD momentum changes
Alternative Technologies	Mass production progress of PV silver-coated copper/copper plating technologies

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Spot silver breaking through $78/ounce is the result of

, with the main drivers including:

1. Weakening USD
   : Fed rate cut expectations continue to intensify
2. Surging Industrial Demand
   : Explosive growth in PV, new energy vehicle, and AI computing demand
3. Persistent Supply-Demand Imbalance
   : Five consecutive years of supply deficit, with potential gap widening
4. Policy Catalyst
   : China’s export controls strengthen strategic resource attributes
5. Institutional Bullishness
   : Mainstream investment banks unanimously raise silver price forecasts

, technical indicators show overbought conditions with pullback pressure, but the . If the USD continues to weaken alongside a widening supply-demand gap, silver prices are expected to challenge the range or even the all-time high. For investors, it is recommended to adopt a strategy, strictly enforce stop-losses, and seize the opportunity of this silver bull market driven by structural supply-demand imbalance.

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[1] Sina Finance - “January 6 Silver Evening Review: USD 2026 Outlook Uncertain, Silver Prices Biased Higher Recently” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/roll/2026-01-06/doc-inhfkfun5956007.shtml)

[2] NetEase Finance - “January 6 Silver Evening Review” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIK2JGJT05568W0A.html)

[3] Jinshi Gold Network - “Latest Analysis of 2026 Silver Price Trend” (http://gold.cnfol.com/baiyin/20260108/31924908.shtml)

[4] Securities Times - “Continuous Breakthroughs in PV ‘Silver Reduction’ Technologies” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3554851.html)

[5] Gelonghui - “Another Boost at the Start of the Year! Gold Stands Firm at $4350, Bulls Momentum Strong in Weak USD Cycle” (https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3484075)

[6] 21st Century Business Herald - “US Dollar Index Edges Higher on Safe-Haven Sentiment, Medium-to-Long Term Weakening Expectation Remains” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260105/herald/a4f1a228523c8211dbe329154e6b983e.html)

[7] 36Kr - “From ‘Silicon is King’ to ‘Silver Reduction is King’” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260104A06L5A00)

[8] 6Park News - “Silver Faces Epic Short Squeeze” (https://www.6park.com/news/1767811973.html)

[9] Tencent News - “PV Silver Reduction Technologies” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260104A06L5A00)

[10] Eastmoney - “Barclays Sharply Raises Price Forecasts for Gold, Silver and Copper” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601083612962634.html)