In-Depth Analysis of MediaTek's December 2025 Performance

Based on the above comprehensive analysis, I now present to you a detailed investment research report.

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• Revenue Scale
  : NT$51.27 billion, up 2.9% month-over-month and a substantial 23% year-over-year [0]
• Full-Year Performance
  : 2025 full-year cumulative revenue reached approximately NT$572.76 billion, up about 19.9% year-over-year
• Market Reaction
  : The stock price rose approximately 8.8% in 2025, and fluctuated within the range of US$1,411 to US$1,448 in the fourth quarter [0]

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The Dimensity 9400 series chips are key products for MediaTek’s breakthrough in the high-end market in 2025. According to Counterpoint Research data, MediaTek’s flagship Dimensity 9000 series chips shipped approximately 18 million units globally in 2024, up 60% year-over-year, and are expected to further climb to 24 million units in 2025, with shipment value reaching US$2 billion, double that of 2024 [1][2].

• Global Smartphone AP/SoC Market Share
  : Reached 34% in Q3 2025, ranking first globally [3]
• China’s High-End SoC Market
  : Driven by the strong performance of the Dimensity 9400 chip, MediaTek has captured approximately one-third of China’s high-end SoC market [1]
• Key Customer Base
  : Flagship models including OPPO Find X8 series, vivo X200 Pro/iQOO Neo 10 Pro, and REDMI K80 Ultra all adopt the Dimensity 9400 [3]

The Dimensity 9400+ integrates MediaTek’s 8th-generation AI processor NPU 890, supporting global large language models and Mixture of Experts (MoE) models. Its AnTuTu score exceeds 3.2 million, and its 4K video export efficiency is 23% higher than that of competitors [4]. The penetration rate of AI-enabled smartphones is expected to surge from 6.4% in 2024 to over 19% in 2025 [5].

• Revenue Share
  : Approximately 39% (Q1 2025 data) [6]
• Year-over-Year Growth
  : 32% (Q1 2025) [6]
• Key Products
  : Wi-Fi 7 chips (Filogic series), smart TV chips, tablet chips

Upgrades in connectivity technology (Wi-Fi 7) and improvements in AI applications (tablets) continue to benefit MediaTek, which maintains a leading position in the global Wi-Fi and digital TV silicon chip sectors [7].

• Growth Expectation
  : Q4 is expected to see 100% year-over-year growth [7]
• Key Customers
  : High-end Chinese cockpit electronics customers will launch new models in Q4
• Technology Platform
  : Dimensity Auto platform

• 2026 Target
  : US$1 billion in revenue [6][7]
• Strategic Cooperation
  : Reached a partnership with NVIDIA on NVLink IP
• Technology Reserves
  : Completed tape-out of TSMC’s 2nm node, with commercial launch expected in 2026 [7]

Financial Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Gross Margin	48-49%	Remains at a high level
ROE	26.87%	Excellent [0]
Net Profit Margin	18.19%	Stable [0]
Current Ratio	1.55	Good financial security [0]

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• Dimensity 9500
  : Expected to launch in the second half of 2025, using TSMC’s 3nm N3P process, with further improved CPU performance [2][7]
• 2nm Chips
  : Tape-out completed, to be launched in 2026 [7]
• Dimensity 8000 Series
  : Continues to cover the mid-to-high-end market

According to the Generative AI-Enabled Smartphone Industry White Paper released by MediaTek and its ecosystem partners, the stock of generative AI-enabled smartphones will exceed 1 billion units by 2027 [4]. This means that demand for AI-enabled smartphone chips will remain strong in the coming years.

Forecasts suggest that the launch of the Dimensity 9500 may push MediaTek’s share in the high-end market to 35% [1].

Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance: 9-15% year-over-year growth, reaching US$4.6 billion to US$4.9 billion; full-year 2025 revenue is expected to exceed US$19 billion, up 15% year-over-year [7].

MediaTek is highly dependent on a few Chinese smartphone manufacturers such as OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi, posing high customer concentration risk [4].

• Qualcomm plans to adopt TSMC’s 2nm process in the second half of 2025 [4]
• Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Elite delivers strong performance
• MediaTek lags behind Qualcomm and Apple in terms of self-developed architectures

Uncertainties in the Taiwan Strait situation may affect supply chain stability.

• Short-Term (Q1-Q2 2025)
  : Growth is expected to be maintained; the 23% year-over-year growth in Q4 exceeded the upper limit of the guidance (9-15%), indicating that market demand is stronger than expected
• Mid-Term (Full-Year 2025)
  : A year-over-year growth of around 15% is expected, with the increase in AI smartphone penetration providing structural support
• Long-Term (2026 and Beyond)
  : Need to monitor the competitiveness of the Dimensity 9500 and 2nm products, as well as incremental contributions from ASIC and automotive businesses

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MediaTek’s 23% year-over-year growth is an important signal of the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, mainly for the following reasons:

This growth is not a simple inventory cycle rebound, but structural demand growth driven by AI. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts that the global semiconductor market will reach US$772.2 billion in 2025, up 22.5% year-over-year; it will further grow by 26.3% in 2026, approaching the US$1 trillion mark [8][9].

According to IDC forecasts, global smartphone shipments will reach 1.197 billion units in 2024, up 2.77% year-over-year, and will reach 1.303 billion units in 2028 [5]. MediaTek’s growth confirms the moderate recovery of the smartphone market.

Segmented Market	Growth Trend	MediaTek’s Benefit Level
AI Chips/High-End SoC	Strong Growth	✅ Highly Beneficial
Wi-Fi/Connectivity Chips	Sustained Growth	✅ Beneficial
Memory Chips	Price Increase	⚪ Indirectly Beneficial
Automotive Chips	Structural Growth	⚪ In Layout
Industrial/Consumer Chips	Weak	❌ Limited Impact

EIU analyst Dexter Thillien pointed out that AI has become a key driver for chip companies, transforming semiconductors from a “cyclical industry” to a new normal as “basic strategic materials” [8].

Analyst consensus is forming: the “first wave of AI dividends” from cloud servers/data centers has entered a stable period, and in-depth applications of edge AI will drive a true full recovery of the semiconductor industry [9].

:

• Accurately grasping the trend of AI-enabled smartphones
• Continuous investment in the high-end market
• Diversified layout (smart edge, automotive, ASIC)

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• The smartphone market is not yet saturated; AI function upgrades will stimulate replacement demand
• Demand for edge AI chips will surge
• Chip manufacturers with AI capabilities will achieve excess growth

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Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
P/E (TTM)	21.29x	Moderate [0]
P/B	5.38x	Slightly higher than industry average
Market Expected 2025 EPS Growth	+15%	Stable

:

• Launch of Dimensity 9500 and its adoption by customers
• Speed of AI smartphone penetration growth
• Order breakthroughs in ASIC business
• Realization of automotive business growth

:

• Overall smartphone demand falls short of expectations
• Qualcomm’s 2nm product competitiveness exceeds expectations
• Geopolitical events impact

MediaTek’s 23% year-over-year growth in December is sustainable structural growth, driven primarily by:

1. Breakthroughs in the high-end market with the Dimensity 9400 series
2. Replacement demand brought by the increase in AI smartphone penetration
3. Sustained growth in Wi-Fi 7 and smart edge businesses

For the global semiconductor industry, MediaTek’s strong performance confirms that an AI-driven recovery cycle is underway, rather than a simple inventory cycle rebound. The semiconductor industry is expected to grow by more than 22% in 2025, with logic chips projected to grow by 37% and memory chips by 28% [8][9].

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[0] Jinling AI - MediaTek Company Profile and Market Data (January 9, 2026)
[1] Yicai Global - “Global Semiconductor Sales Grew Nearly 20% Last Year; AI Extends the Semiconductor Technology Cycle” (February 17, 2025) (https://www.yicai.com/news/102475470.html)
[2] Tencent Cloud Developer Community - “In-Depth Analysis Report on MediaTek Dimensity 9500 Chipset” (https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/2571285)
[3] PConline - “Far Ahead of Competitors! MediaTek Regains No.1 Global Smartphone AP-SoC Market Share in Q3 2025” (https://mobile.pconline.com.cn/2044/20446915.html)
[4] 36Kr - “AI Boosts MediaTek, but It Still Lags Behind Qualcomm” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3245566287265793)
[5] Eastmoney - Industry Research Report: “Global Smartphone Sales Began to Recover in H2 2023” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403201627281598_1.pdf)
[6] Huibo Information - “FY2025 Q1 Performance Review and Earnings Call Transcript: Mainstream & Entry-Level Market Demand Drives Smartphone Business Growth” (https://www.fxbaogao.com/detail/4818536)
[7] LinkedIn - “MediaTek Q3 2025: 16% revenue growth, $4.7B, Dimensity 9500…” (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/akash-jatwala)
[8] Sina Finance - “AI-Driven Structural Transformation of the Semiconductor Industry: How Will the Market Evolve in 2026?” (December 30, 2025) (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2025-12-30/doc-inhequpk4183074.shtml)
[9] EET China - “2026 Semiconductor Industry Outlook: Beyond AI” (December 25, 2025) (https://www.eet-china.com/news/202512173928.html)