Analysis Report on Vanke's Debt Structure Adjustment: Debt Resolution Strategies and Prospects Led by Shenzhen State-Owned Assets

Based on the latest information, this report systematically analyzes Vanke’s debt structure adjustment strategies and prospects under the leadership of Shenzhen State-Owned Assets after Yu Liang’s retirement.

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On January 8, 2026, Vanke issued an announcement stating that co-founder Yu Liang, having reached retirement age, resigned from his positions as director and executive vice president, and would no longer hold any positions in the company [1]. This “veteran” who joined Vanke in 1990 and served for exactly 36 years has officially exited the historical stage.

Vanke is in a period of in-depth industry adjustment. In 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached a record loss of RMB 49.478 billion [2]. Against the backdrop of the continuous downturn in the real estate industry, Vanke’s debt pressure is particularly prominent.

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According to Vanke’s latest financial data, the company faces severe debt challenges [3]:

Indicator	Data	Proportion/Description
Total interest-bearing debt	RMB 362.9 billion	Historical high
Debt due within one year	RMB 155.37 billion	Accounts for 42.7%
Monetary funds	RMB 65.6 billion	Cash-to-short-term-debt ratio of approximately 0.48
Short-term domestic bonds	RMB 12.366 billion	84.61% due within one year
Peak repayment in the next 12 months	RMB 4.866 billion	Concentrated in July 2026

In late November 2025, Vanke initiated a debt extension process for the first time, proposing an extension plan for the medium-term note “22 Vanke MTN004” with a balance of RMB 2 billion, which was originally due on December 15. This broke Vanke’s record of no debt extensions since its establishment [2]. Although Vanke optimized the extension plan three times in succession, at the second bondholders’ meeting, the extension plan only received 20.2% approval, with an opposition rate as high as 78.3%, reflecting investors’ deep concerns about the company’s future debt-servicing capacity.

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Before Yu Liang’s retirement, Vanke’s management had already undergone a comprehensive reshuffle in 2025 [1]:

• January 2025
  : Xin Jie succeeded Yu Liang as Chairman of the Board of Directors, and several senior executives with Shenzhen state-owned assets backgrounds were “air-dropped” into core positions at Vanke
• October 2025
  : Xin Jie resigned for personal reasons, and Huang Liping (Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Director, and General Manager of Shenzhen Metro Group) took over as Chairman
• Core Team
  : Executives from the Shenzhen Metro system have fully taken over strategic decision-making power, and more than 10 senior executives with Shenzhen state-owned assets backgrounds have been stationed at Vanke’s headquarters and regional core positions

As Vanke’s largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group has continued to provide financial support [4]:

Time	Support Method	Amount
Cumulative since 2025	Shareholder loan	RMB 30.796 billion
Including: Since February 2025	New loans	Provided in multiple batches
November 11, 2025	Loan	No more than RMB 1.666 billion

According to the “Framework Agreement on Shareholder Loans and Asset Guarantees” signed between Vanke and Shenzhen Metro in November 2025, Shenzhen Metro Group provided Vanke with a loan quota of no more than RMB 22 billion from the start of 2025 until the date of Vanke’s 2025 annual general meeting [4].

Vanke is seeking extension arrangements for multiple debts [5]:

• “22 Vanke MTN004”
  (RMB 2 billion): Seeking a one-year extension, with an opposition rate of 78.3%
• “22 Vanke MTN005”
  (RMB 3.7 billion): The one-year extension proposal was not approved
• “21 Vanke 02”
  : Applied for a trading halt to discuss adjustments to repayment arrangements

The core terms of the extension plan include: extending the grace period from 5 working days to 30 trading days, and providing Vanke’s own credit enhancement measures (removing the Shenzhen Metro guarantee clause) [5].

Since 2023, Vanke has actively revitalized its assets [4]:

Item	Amount
Block transaction contracts signed in Q3 2025	RMB 6.86 billion
Cumulative revitalization, optimization and new production capacity	RMB 17.84 billion
Block transaction contracts signed in 2024	RMB 25.9 billion
Capital recovered from asset revitalization	RMB 10.4 billion

Asset disposals include high-quality assets such as Shanghai Qihai Vanke Plaza (sold at a 30% discount, recovering RMB 2.4 billion) and the transfer of the plot in the Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base.

Vanke is promoting the transformation from

to [6]:

• White-list projects
  : 79 approved in total
• Operating property loans
  : RMB 29.3 billion implemented throughout the year
• Bridge financing
  : Completed RMB 26.7 billion in loan drawdowns (including RMB 20 billion from the logistics syndicated loan)

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Vanke’s bond extension plan has faced strong opposition from creditors, and market concerns continue to rise [2]. The main reasons include:

1. Absence of Shenzhen Metro guarantee
   : The latest plan removed the controlling shareholder’s guarantee clause
2. Low approval rate for extension
   : The initial plan only received 20.2% support
3. Cross-default risk
   : If the extension fails, it may trigger accelerated maturity of other debts

Vanke’s operating conditions continue to deteriorate [1]:

• From January to September 2025, operating revenue reached RMB 161.39 billion, with a net loss attributable to parent company shareholders of RMB 28.02 billion
• The after-tax gross profit margin of the real estate development business dropped to 2.0%
• From January to October 2025, equity sales reached RMB 86 billion, a year-on-year decline of 34.4%

The balance of Vanke’s investment properties used for pledges, mortgages and guarantees has reached RMB 80 billion, accounting for 58.2% of the balance of investment properties, and the space for realizable assets is continuously narrowing [4].

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Shenzhen Municipal State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has clearly stated its support for Vanke [7]:

“As of the end of 2024, the assets of Shenzhen municipal state-owned enterprises exceed RMB 5 trillion, with annual operating revenue exceeding RMB 1 trillion. With large scale and strong strength, we have the ability, the strength, and sufficient ‘ammunition’ to support Shenzhen Metro Group in promoting Vanke’s steady development through all possible market-oriented and legal means.”

In addition, responsible persons from Guangdong Province, Shenzhen City, relevant departments, and financial institutions have all expressed full support for Vanke’s prudent risk disposal.

Responsible persons from 8 banks in Shenzhen stated [7]:

• Continue to actively use various financial tools such as loans, bonds, asset management, and trusts
• Meet Vanke’s reasonable financing needs
• Ensure the stability of the overall financing scale

Vanke has actively utilized policy tools [6]:

• White list of urban real estate financing coordination mechanism
• Operating property loan policy
• REITs financing channels (Yinli REIT, long-term rental apartment REITs, etc.)

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Vanke’s debt pressure is concentrated [4]:

• Bonds due within the year: RMB 3.7 billion (excluding parts to be extended)
• Bonds due or exercisable in 2026: RMB 12.419 billion

:

1. Continue to strive for bond extension negotiations to avoid public default
2. Rely on shareholder loans from Shenzhen Metro to maintain liquidity
3. Intensify asset disposal efforts

Possible directions for Vanke’s debt restructuring [8]:

1. Full debt restructuring
   : Considering the debt scale (approximately HK$ 390 billion), the possibility of a full debt restructuring is high
2. Gradual clearance
   : Gradually resolve risks through asset disposal, debt extension, deleveraging, etc.
3. Introduction of strategic investors
   : May further introduce strategic investments from state-owned assets or central enterprises

The “Slimming and Strengthening” plan proposed by Vanke’s management is divided into two phases [6]:

:

• Focus on three core businesses: comprehensive residential community development, property management, and rental housing
• Reduce interest-bearing debt by more than RMB 100 billion in the next two years
• Exit other businesses and clean up non-core financial investments

:

• Build industry benchmarks for products and services
• Develop operating businesses (property management, long-term rentals, commercial properties)
• Achieve the transformation of financing model from entity credit to asset credit

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Risk Type	Specific Performance
Liquidity risk	Concentrated short-term debt, uncertainty of extension plan
Credit risk	Rating downgrade (S&P B-, Fitch B-), rising financing costs
Operational risk	Continuous sales decline, gross profit margin falling to a low level
Policy risk	Uncertainty about the depth of the real estate industry adjustment
Cross-default risk	Failure of extension may trigger accelerated maturity of other debts

• Strong support from Shenzhen state-owned assets, with assets of Shenzhen municipal state-owned enterprises exceeding RMB 5 trillion
• Vanke’s brand value remains, and businesses such as property management maintain leading positions in the industry
• Marginal improvement in the policy environment, clear signals of “stabilizing the property market”
• Operating businesses (property management, long-term rentals) contribute positive profits

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After Yu Liang’s retirement, Vanke has officially entered the “full Shenzhen Metro cycle”, and debt structure adjustment led by Shenzhen state-owned assets is fully underway. Facing pressure from interest-bearing debt of approximately RMB 360 billion, Vanke has adopted a multi-pronged strategy including bond extension, shareholder capital injection, asset disposal, and financing transformation.

However, due to strong opposition from creditors to the debt extension plan, the removal of the Shenzhen Metro guarantee clause, and the controlling shareholder’s support quota approaching the upper limit (only approximately RMB 2.29 billion in remaining available new loans), Vanke’s liquidity dilemma cannot be fundamentally reversed in the short term.

In the long run, Vanke’s debt resolution depends on three conditions: first, the real estate market stops declining and stabilizes, restoring its self-sustaining cash-generating capacity; second, continuous support from Shenzhen state-owned assets to provide a liquidity buffer; third, creditors reach a consensus on extensions to avoid cross-default.

Whether Vanke can successfully resolve its debt crisis and return to a healthy development track is not only related to the survival of this once industry-leading enterprise, but will also have a profound impact on the confidence restoration of China’s real estate market.

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[1] Sina Finance - Yu Liang Retires, Vanke Enters the Full Shenzhen Metro Cycle (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-08/doc-inhfrkwi6452301.shtml)

[2] Securities Times - Yu Liang Retires, Vanke Faces Over RMB 10 Billion Debt Challenge (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3582658.html)

[3] Wall Street China - Reconsidering the Impact of Vanke’s Debt Extension (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760388)

[4] Sanlian Life Weekly - Will Vanke’s Escalating Debt Crisis Become Another “Evergrande”? (https://www.6park.com/news/1764702195.html)

[5] Sina Finance - Vanke’s Self-Rescue Fails, a Major Shift is Coming (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-18/doc-inhcfepp3198164.shtml)

[6] Vanke Group Official Website - Investor Presentation (https://www.vanke.com/mobile/investor/data?typeid=62&newsid=7977)

[7] Sina Finance - Vanke “Goes All Out” to Safeguard Stability (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/bxjj/2025-02-02/doc-ineiahpc8754350.shtml)

[8] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - Vanke Burdened with HK$390 Billion Debt, Regulators Refuse to Bail Out; Authorities Said to Have Formulated Measures to Control the Situation (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/萬科孭巨債3900億-監管拒救-傳當局已制定措施-掌控事態發展-182800615.html)