In-Depth Analysis Report on China Vanke (000002.SZ): 2025 Performance Pressure and Progress of Debt Extension Negotiations

Based on the collected data, let’s provide you with a detailed analysis of China Vanke’s 2025 performance and the progress of its debt extension negotiations.

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As a benchmark enterprise in China’s real estate industry, China Vanke is experiencing unprecedented operational difficulties in 2025. According to the latest financial data [0]:

Core Indicator	Value	Assessment
Current Stock Price	$4.96	Near 52-week low
P/E Ratio	-0.99x	Loss-making status
ROE	-31.07%	Severe negative value
Net Profit Margin	-20.92%	Substantial loss
Operating Profit Margin	-17.93%	Continued deterioration

Looking at quarterly performance, China Vanke’s loss per share in Q3 2025 reached

, significantly missing the market expectation of -$0.10, with an unexpected deviation as high as [0]. This reflects the continuous deterioration of the company’s profitability, and the negative impact of shrinking sales scale is accelerating.

The stock price of China Vanke A has experienced a significant pullback over the past year [0]:

• 1-Month Performance
  : +3.98% (Short-term rebound)
• 3-Month Performance
  : -26.95% (Continuous decline)
• 6-Month Performance
  : -24.16%
• 1-Year Performance
  : -28.63%
• 3-Year Performance
  : -73.59%
• 5-Year Performance
  : -83.34%

The current stock price is near the 52-week low of $4.62, and market concerns about the company’s fundamentals continue to grow.

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The debt pressure facing China Vanke is the biggest current risk point. According to news reports [1]:

• Bond Balance
  : RMB 2 billion
• Original Maturity Date
  : December 15, 2025
• First Bondholder Meeting
  : Held on December 10, 2025

Proposal	Content	Support Rate	Threshold	Result
Proposal 1	Adjust principal and interest payment arrangements	0%	90%	Not passed
Proposal 2	Add credit enhancement measures	83.4%	90%	Not passed (short by 6.6%)
Proposal 3	Adjust payment + credit enhancement	18.95%	90%	Not passed

Since none of the three proposals met the effective threshold, this bond has officially entered a

[1]. China Vanke has announced that it will hold a to launch a new round of negotiations with creditors.

1. Differences in Interest Demands Between Creditors and the Enterprise
   : Creditors tend to prioritize “maximizing interests” and hope to receive partial cash payment or compensation in the form of debt-settling properties, rather than a pure extension plan.

2. Unclear Credit Enhancement Measures
   : Although Proposal 2 provided an intention of state-owned enterprise guarantee, the specific form, validity, and implementation details of the guarantee were not clear, which failed to completely dispel creditors’ concerns.

3. Concerns About Solvency
   : The real estate sales market is still in adjustment, China Vanke’s own operating cash flow has limited improvement, and there will be continuous debt maturities in the next year. Creditors lack confidence in the company’s solvency after the extension [1].

The overall debt pressure facing China Vanke is not optimistic:

Time	Domestic Bond Maturities	Overseas Bond Maturities
December 2025	RMB 5.7 billion (including the RMB 2 billion in this case)	-
2026	Over RMB 12 billion	-
2027	Over RMB 3 billion	RMB 7 billion

• “22 Vanke MTN005”
  : Balance of RMB 3.7 billion, principal maturity date on December 28, 2025. Bank of Communications plans to hold a bondholder meeting on December 22 to review the extension matter [1].

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On January 8, 2026, China Vanke issued an important announcement: founder

, submitting a written resignation report to the company’s board of directors, applying to resign from his positions as director and executive vice president [2][3]. After resigning from the above positions, Yu Liang will no longer hold any position in the company.

This major personnel change comes at a critical moment when the company is facing a debt crisis and performance pressure, and may have an important impact on the company’s future strategic direction and debt resolution process.

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1. Liquidity Risk
   : Unsmooth progress in debt extension negotiations may lead to a sudden surge in liquidity pressure
2. Continuous Sales Decline
   : Against the backdrop of real estate market adjustment, sales collection faces uncertainty
3. Refinancing Pressure
   : With large-scale debt maturities in the future, the company’s refinancing ability is questionable
4. Management Changes
   : There is uncertainty about whether the new management can effectively respond to the crisis

1. Policy Support Expectations
   : Regulatory authorities’ support policies for high-quality real estate enterprises may continue
2. Support from State-Owned Background
   : The potential intention of state-owned enterprise guarantee indicates that there is still external support
3. Industry Integration Opportunities
   : The crisis may accelerate industry consolidation, and high-quality enterprises are expected to gain more market share

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In view of the multiple challenges facing China Vanke, including performance losses, difficulties in debt extension, and senior management changes, investors should remain highly cautious:

• Short-Term
  : Pay attention to the negotiation progress of the second bondholder meeting on December 18; if the extension plan is approved, it may alleviate short-term pressure
• Medium-Term
  : Track Q1 2026 financial reports and sales data to assess the improvement of operating cash flow
• Long-Term
  : Need to observe the strategic adjustments of the new management after taking office and changes in the policy environment

: China Vanke’s debt crisis may have a contagion effect on the A-share real estate sector and Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese real estate stocks. It is recommended that investors closely monitor relevant developments.

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[0] Jinling API - Real-time Quotation and Financial Data of China Vanke A (000002.SZ)

[1] The Beijing News - “Vanke’s Debt Extension Enters ‘Overtime’: Three Proposals Failed, 5-Day Grace Period Becomes Key” (https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202512163593182290.html)

[2] CLS - “China Vanke A: Yu Liang Resigns as Director and Executive Vice President Due to Retirement Age” (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2252261)

[3] Eastmoney - “China Vanke A: Yu Liang Resigns as Director and Executive Vice President Due to Retirement Age” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601083613058165.html)