In-Depth Analysis of the Linkage Between the Phosphorus Chemical Industry and Lithium Battery Industry Chain: A Study on the Impact of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Price Fluctuations on Enterprises

I have now collected sufficient data and information, and I will provide you with a

analysis report on the linkage between the phosphorus chemical industry and lithium battery industry chain, focusing on the impact of lithium hexafluorophosphate price fluctuations on related enterprises.

---

---

The phosphorus chemical industry and lithium battery industry chain have in-depth resource and business synergy relationships. This linkage is mainly reflected in the following dimensions:

: Phosphate rock is the raw material basis for producing phosphate products. In the lithium battery field, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials require phosphate as a precursor. Although lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆) is mainly related to fluorochemicals and lithium resources, the production of electrolyte also requires supply chain coordination with phosphorus chemical enterprises. In addition, the production of electrolyte additives such as VC (vinylene carbonate) and FEC (fluoroethylene carbonate) is also related to the phosphorus chemical industry [1][2].

: Phosphorus chemical enterprises can extend to the new energy materials field relying on their technical accumulation in chemical synthesis, purification processes, etc. For example, some phosphorus chemical enterprises have deployed businesses such as iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, and lithium battery recycling, forming a dual-drive pattern of “phosphorus chemical industry + new energy” [3].

: The explosive growth of energy storage demand is reshaping the supply and demand pattern of lithium battery materials. Since 2025, the shipment volume of energy storage batteries has continued to exceed expectations, driving a significant increase in demand for phosphorus-containing new energy materials such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate. Coupled with the promotion of the “anti-involution” work on the supply side, product prices have continued to rise [3].

Lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆) is the core solute of lithium battery electrolyte, accounting for 40%-50% of the electrolyte cost, and directly determines the energy density, charge-discharge efficiency, and safety of batteries [1][2]. Its industrial chain position is as follows:

Phosphate rock/Fluorite → Hydrofluoric Acid → Lithium Hexafluorophosphate → Electrolyte → Lithium Battery → New Energy Vehicle/Energy Storage

Lithium hexafluorophosphate has the following characteristics:

• Highly Concentrated Production Capacity
  : The CR3 (Tinci Materials, Do-Fluoride New Materials, Skyrizon Corporation) has a market share of over 70% [4]
• Long Capacity Expansion Cycle
  : Newly built capacity takes 12-18 months
• High Technical Barriers
  : Strict requirements for purity and process control
• High Price Sensitivity
  : It is one of the leading indicators for predicting the prosperity of the lithium battery industry

---

According to market data, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has experienced severe cyclical fluctuations:

Period	Price Level	Driving Factors
2021-2022	600,000-800,000 yuan/ton (peak)	Explosive growth of new energy vehicles, severe supply shortage
2023-2024	Continued decline to below 50,000 yuan/ton	Large-scale release of production capacity, industry fell into deep losses
July 2025	Approximately 49,500 yuan/ton (historical low)	Whole industry in loss, operating rate dropped to below 40%
November 2025	Above 120,000 yuan/ton	Supply-demand reversal, energy storage demand exceeded expectations
December 2025 - January 2026	170,000-180,000 yuan/ton	Continued tight supply, accelerated price increase

:

• In November 2025, the quoted price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 120,000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100% compared to the end of September, and a sharp increase of 142% compared to the July low [4]
• Within two months, lithium hexafluorophosphate rose from 55,000 yuan/ton to 120,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 118%; as of January 2026, the price has exceeded 170,000 yuan/ton [1][2]

:

1. Capacity Clearing Forced by Deep Industry Losses
   : From 2024 to June 2025, midstream and upstream lithium battery enterprises generally fell into losses, and small and medium-sized manufacturers were forced to reduce production load or suspend production
2. Cautious Launch of New Production Capacity
   : After a period of high prosperity, the industry has sufficient overall production capacity, but confidence in capacity expansion is insufficient; most of the production capacity planned for 2023-2024 has been stagnant
3. Persistent Low Operating Rate
   : The industry operating rate once dropped to below 40%, although leading enterprises maintained an operating rate of over 80%, their incremental contribution was limited [5]

:

1. Energy Storage Demand Exceeded Expectations
   : Since August 2025, downstream demand such as energy storage has been released, and the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate has shown a tight balance; the U.S. energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 80GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 51% [4]
2. Steady Growth in New Energy Vehicle Demand
   : Power battery installed capacity continues to increase, supporting car companies such as NETA Auto, Leapmotor, and GAC Aion
3. Inventory Replenishment Demand in the Industrial Chain
   : Downstream enterprises have low inventory, coupled with hedging and long-term order-locking agreements, demand is released in a concentrated manner

:

1. Effect of “Anti-Involution” Policies
   : The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the “Implementation Rules for Capacity Replacement in the Chemical Industry”, strictly controlling the launch of new production capacity [6]
2. Favorable Policies for Energy Storage
   : The annual compound growth rate of domestic new energy storage installed capacity needs to be maintained at around 30% from 2025 to 2027, and the establishment of a capacity electricity price mechanism improves investment certainty [4]

According to institutional forecasts, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will show a

trend:

Time Node	Price Forecast	Logical Basis
Q1 - Early Q2 2026	Price peaks	Tight supply-demand pattern continues, supported by low inventory
Q2 - Q3 2026	High-level fluctuation	New production capacity begins to be released, but demand remains strong
H2 2026	Moderate decline	Capacity release accelerates, supply-demand pattern improves

: Expected to be higher than that in 2025, supporting the profit recovery of lithium battery material enterprises [1][2]

---

:
Tinci Materials is the world’s dual leader in electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate. According to data from CIC, in 2024, the company’s global electrolyte shipment volume was 503,000 tons, with a global market share of 35.7%, ranking first in the world for 9 consecutive years; its lithium hexafluorophosphate shipment volume was 64,000 tons, with a global market share of 37.6%, ranking first [5].

:

• Annual production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is approximately 112,000 tons, which is basically operating at full capacity
• Has 16 production bases and 2 under-construction production bases in China
• Overseas layout: 150,000-ton annual output electrolyte and core material integration project in Morocco (with an investment of US$280 million), and 200,000-ton annual output electrolyte project in the United States [5]

:

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	$84.79 billion	First in the industry
Current Stock Price	$44.44	-
1-Year Increase	+143.24%	Significantly outperformed the industry
P/E	149.82x	Relatively high (expectation of cycle reversal)
ROE	4.30%	Needs improvement
Current Ratio	1.73	Relatively healthy

: Net profit of 1.1-1.6 billion yuan, of which Q4 single-quarter performance is 600-1.1 billion yuan, significantly benefiting from the price surge of lithium hexafluorophosphate [7]

:

1. Perfect integrated layout, leading cost control capability in the industry
2. Accelerated global layout, overseas production capacity is gradually put into operation
3. Lithium battery materials business accounts for about 90%, with prominent high-beta attributes

:
Do-Fluoride New Materials is a leading enterprise in China’s fluorochemical and lithium battery materials fields, mainly engaged in lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium fluoride, electrolyte, etc., and is a core supplier in the global lithium hexafluorophosphate field [5].

:

• Lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity has reached 65,000 tons, with an expected shipment volume of about 50,000 tons in 2025 and 60,000-70,000 tons in 2026
• The 20,000-ton production capacity plan of the fund-raising project is steadily advancing
• Has a full industrial chain layout from fluorite ore to lithium hexafluorophosphate

:

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	$38.07 billion	Second in the industry
Current Stock Price	$32.93	-
1-Year Increase	+187.60%	Strong performance
P/E	-149.05x	Loss (cycle low)
ROE	-3.05%	Loss status

:

1. The new lithium salt LiFSI has been mass-produced, suitable for high-voltage power batteries
2. Complete fluorochemical industrial chain, significant cost advantage
3. Expected to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and price in 2026

:
Skyrizon Corporation is a dual-main-business enterprise in China’s lithium hexafluorophosphate and small home appliance fields, with a lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity of approximately 37,000 tons [5].

: The 15,000-ton production capacity of the fund-raising project is expected to complete equipment customization and installation by the end of 2025, and be put into operation in September 2026, which is expected to contribute an increment of 4,000-6,000 tons

:
Xingfa Group is a leading domestic phosphorus chemical enterprise. In recent years, it has actively deployed new energy materials business, forming a dual-drive pattern of “phosphorus chemical industry + new energy”.

:

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Market Capitalization	$41.33 billion	Leading phosphorus chemical enterprise
Current Stock Price	$37.46	-
1-Year Increase	+75.70%	Steady growth
P/E	25.74x	Reasonable range
ROE	7.42%	Good
Current Ratio	0.66	Relatively tight capital chain

: EPS $0.51, revenue $9.16 billion, year-on-year growth of 5.9%

:

1. Has high-quality phosphate rock resources, prominent “mine-chemical integration” capability
2. Deployed new energy materials such as iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate
3. Benefits from the increase in the proportion of phosphorus resource consumption in the new energy field

:
Yuntianhua is one of the largest phosphate fertilizer and chemical enterprises in China, expanding to the new energy materials field relying on resource advantages.

:

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Market Capitalization	$63.08 billion	Leading phosphorus chemical enterprise
Current Stock Price	$34.60	-
1-Year Increase	+61.83%	Steady
P/E	11.19x	Valuation depression
ROE	24.29%	Excellent
Current Ratio	0.95	Moderate

: EPS $1.08, revenue $12.61 billion, net profit margin of 10.76%

:

1. Leading domestic phosphate rock resource reserves and production capacity
2. Benefits from the recovery of the agrochemical sector under the “anti-involution” policy
3. Valuation is at a historical low, with sufficient margin of safety

:
Salt Lake Industry is a dual-main-business enterprise in the fields of lithium extraction from salt lakes and potash fertilizer, with the mining right of the Qarhan Salt Lake in Qinghai, and lithium resource reserves of over 3 million tons LCE [5].

: Net profit of 8.3-8.9 billion yuan, with outstanding performance [7]

: The lithium extraction from salt lake project has a built-in annual production capacity of 10,000 tons, and plans to expand to 20,000 tons

:
Zangge Mining is an important enterprise in the field of lithium extraction from salt lakes, with the mining rights of the Longmu Co Salt Lake and Jiezecaka Salt Lake in Ali, Tibet [5]

: Year-on-year increase of over 210%, with outstanding performance [4]

---

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Price Fluctuation Transmission Mechanism     │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                 │
│  Rise in Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Price                      │
│         │                                                       │
│         ├──► Increase in electrolyte cost (passed to downstream battery manufacturers) │
│         │                                                       │
│         ├──► Profit recovery of lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises (direct benefit) │
│         │                                                       │
│         ├──► Increase in orders for phosphorus chemical enterprises (raw material supporting) │
│         │                                                       │
│         └──► Increase in demand for lithium salt enterprises (lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide) │
│                                                                 │
│  Coping Strategies of Downstream Battery Manufacturers:         │
│         • Sign long-term order-locking agreements with upstream enterprises │
│         • Conduct futures hedging business                       │
│         • Pass on cost pressure to downstream (battery price increase) │
│                                                                 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Impact Dimension	Specific Performance
Revenue Elasticity	For every 10,000 yuan/ton increase in price, Tinci Materials’ annual revenue increases by approximately 1 billion yuan
Profit Elasticity	Gross margin is significantly restored, turning from loss to profitability
Capacity Utilization Rate	Increased to 80%-100%, scale effect emerges
Capacity Expansion Decision	Faces the dilemma of “possible loss from capacity expansion, possible loss of market position without expansion”

: Tinci Materials’ Q4 2025 performance is 600-1.1 billion yuan, and its 2026 performance is expected to reach over 10 billion yuan (contribution from the current price of 170,000 yuan/ton) [7]

Impact Dimension	Specific Performance
Business Increment	Increased demand for iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate materials
Value Reassessment	Switch from traditional cyclical stocks to growth stocks
Resource Value	Strategic value of high-quality phosphate rock resources becomes prominent

: Assuming that the global energy storage battery shipment volume increases to 600/800/983GWh in 2025-2027 respectively, the corresponding demand for phosphate rock will rise to 6/8/9.83 million tons, accounting for 4.7%/5.9%/7.0% of China’s predicted phosphate rock output respectively [3]

Impact Dimension	Specific Performance
Cost Pressure	Proportion of raw material cost increases, profitability is under pressure
Coping Strategies	Sign long-term agreements, conduct hedging, pass on costs to downstream
Industry Impact	Accelerated clearing of backward production capacity, increased industry concentration

: Dega Energy has increased the price of its battery series products by 15% since December 16, 2025; leading battery enterprises are actively communicating with customers about price increases [1][2]

---

• Tinci Materials (002709.SZ): Dual leader in electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate, with perfect integrated layout
• Do-Fluoride New Materials (002407.SZ): Leading fluorochemical enterprise, the new lithium salt LiFSI opens the second growth curve

• Xingfa Group (600141.SS): Dual-drive of phosphorus chemical industry and new energy, excellent resource endowment
• Yuntianhua (600096.SS): Valuation depression, benefits from phosphorus resource value reassessment

• Salt Lake Industry (000792.SZ): Leading enterprise in lithium extraction from salt lakes, significant performance elasticity
• Zangge Mining (000408.SZ): Rich salt lake resource reserves

Risk Type	Specific Content	Risk Level
Overcapacity Risk	Concentrated release of new production capacity may cause price to come under pressure again	Medium-High
Demand Shortfall Risk	Growth slowdown in energy storage and new energy vehicle sales	Medium
Policy Risk	International trade frictions, technology export controls	Medium-High
Technology Substitution Risk	New lithium salts (such as LiFSI) replace lithium hexafluorophosphate	Medium
Raw Material Price Fluctuation Risk	Price fluctuations of raw materials such as lithium carbonate and hydrofluoric acid	Medium

:

• The P/E (TTM) of the sub-sector chemical industry index is 28 times, which is at the 77.8th percentile in the past 10 years
• P/B is 2.6 times, which is at the 50.5th percentile in the past 10 years, and the asset price has a certain margin of safety relative to the net asset value [6]

:

• Although the chemical industry is in the recovery stage at the bottom of the cycle, it shows structural differentiation
• Some fields (such as lithium battery materials and phosphorus chemical industry) have improved, while the overall profitability of the industry has not yet fully recovered
• The current valuation has overdrawn part of the recovery expectations, and future valuation support depends on the actual strength of profit recovery

---

:

• In 2026, lithium battery materials will likely enter a state of tight supply-demand balance
• Some securities firms predict that the capacity utilization rates of lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, separators, and copper foil at the 2026Q4 node will reach 106%, 96%, 98%, and 95% respectively [4]

:

• Increased penetration rate of high-nickel ternary batteries drives demand for lithium hydroxide
• Accelerated R&D of solid-state batteries, the energy density of the sulfide system reaches 400Wh/kg
• Accelerated industrialization of sodium-ion batteries, suitable for low-speed electric vehicles and energy storage scenarios

:

• Chinese lithium battery enterprises accelerate overseas factory construction to avoid trade barriers
• Tinci Materials’ projects in Morocco and the United States are steadily advancing
• Increased penetration rate of electrification overseas, the overseas market has become an important incremental source

:

• Pay attention to the price trend of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and seize the investment window of simultaneous growth in volume and price
• Prioritize targets with high capacity utilization rate, low inventory, and sufficient orders

:

• Pay attention to the supply-side optimization brought by the continuous promotion of the “anti-involution” policy
• Pay attention to the value reassessment opportunities of phosphorus chemical enterprises transforming to new energy materials

:

• Pay attention to investment opportunities in the energy storage industry chain against the background of global energy transformation
• Pay attention to industrial changes brought by new technology routes such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries

---

The linkage effect between the phosphorus chemical industry and lithium battery industry chain is strengthening. As the core raw material of electrolyte, the price fluctuation of lithium hexafluorophosphate has a profound impact on upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain.

:

1. Cycle Reversal Confirmed
   : The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rebounded from the low of 49,500 yuan/ton in July 2025 to the current 170,000-180,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 240%, basically confirming the industry cycle reversal
2. Tight Supply-Demand Balance Continues
   : The release of new production capacity in 2026 is limited, and the tight balance state is expected to continue, with prices expected to remain at a high level
3. Enterprise Profit Recovery
   : The profitability of leading enterprises such as Tinci Materials and Do-Fluoride New Materials will be significantly improved, with huge performance elasticity in 2026
4. Phosphorus Resource Value Reassessment
   : The growth of energy storage demand drives the increase in the proportion of phosphorus resource consumption, and phosphorus chemical enterprises are facing opportunities for value reassessment

: It is recommended to focus on