Pony Testing (300887) Strong Stock Analysis: Risk of Fundamental Deviation Amid Concept-Driven Rally

This analysis is based on market dynamics in January 2026. Pony Testing (300887) entered the strong stock pool, attracting widespread market attention. The cumulative deviation of the stock’s closing price increase reached +100% in 10 trading days, triggering the criteria for severe abnormal fluctuations in stock trading [0][1].

On December 31, 2025, Elon Musk announced on social media that his brain-computer interface company Neuralink will begin “large-scale production” of brain-computer interface devices in 2026 [1][2]. This announcement directly ignited the A-share brain-computer interface concept sector. On January 5, 2026, the brain-computer interface index soared over 12% intraday, with 11 concept stocks achieving a 20cm (20%) daily limit on the same day [1]. Pony Testing is classified by the market as a core target of the brain-computer interface concept because the company holds qualifications for brain-computer interface safety regulation evaluation, EMC (Electromagnetic Compatibility) and biocompatibility evaluation. It can accurately identify material risks through mass spectrometry technology, providing technical support for industry innovation [3].

Pony Testing also holds commercial spaceflight testing qualifications, having obtained accreditation for environmental and reliability testing of spacecraft and supporting equipment. Its customer base covers special industries such as aviation, spaceflight, shipping, ordnance, automotive, and electronics [4]. Since November 24, 2025, the commercial spaceflight concept has seen a cumulative increase of over 46% [5]. The synergistic effect of the two concepts has significantly amplified market attention and capital inflows.

Pony Testing has shown extremely strong technical performance recently, exhibiting typical momentum-driven rally characteristics:

Time Period	Performance Description
December 24, 2025 - January 8, 2026	Hit daily limit 3 times in 4 trading days, doubled in half a month
January 5, 2026	First trading day of 2026, quickly sealed the 20cm (20%) daily limit with heavy volume after opening
January 8, 2026	Quickly hit the daily limit in late trading, officially entered the strong stock pool

According to market data analysis, Pony Testing exhibits typical characteristics of institutional capital dominance [6][7]. Main force capital shows a radical inflow trend, with extra-large orders and large orders consistently dominating, indicating strong consensus among institutions. The volume ratio reaches 1.51, with nearly perfect volume-price coordination. Chips are highly concentrated in the range of RMB 7.94-10.90, with a concentration rate of 24.1%, a profit ratio of 100%, and an average cost of approximately RMB 9.30 [6]. This highly concentrated chip structure not only shows strong market optimism but also means that once sentiment reverses, selling pressure may be concentrated.

From a technical analysis perspective, key price levels to focus on currently include: short-term support at RMB 11.00 (a reference point for short-term entry during intraday pullbacks), strong support at RMB 10.90 (lower edge of the chip concentration area), short-term resistance at RMB 13.50 (short-term target), and medium-term resistance at the previous historical high [6]. For risk warning levels, the 5-day moving average is an important reference line for take-profit/stop-loss. Once it is effectively broken below, investors need to be alert to the risk of trend reversal.

According to the company’s 2025 performance forecast, Pony Testing expects a full-year net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 200-250 million, and a net loss excluding non-recurring gains and losses of RMB 211-261 million [0][5][8]. Although the loss has narrowed compared to the same period last year (RMB 356 million), the company is still in a state of deep loss. In the first three quarters of 2025, operating revenue was RMB 932 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.01%, and the net loss attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters was RMB 199 million, a year-on-year improvement of 15.07% [8].

The core reasons for the company’s performance pressure include multiple dimensions: In terms of traditional business contraction, the company has strengthened credit management in fields such as food and the environment, and actively reduced cooperation with customers with serious arrears [5]. In terms of new business investment, the company has made large investments in the construction of biomedical, new energy vehicle, and special industry testing fields, and market development requires time to cultivate [5]. In addition, the company needs to accrue approximately RMB 90 million in credit impairment losses, and various expenses and costs remain at a high level [5].

The current stock price performance of Pony Testing has seriously deviated from its fundamentals: the company expects a loss of over RMB 200 million, but its stock price has doubled in half a month. This degree of deviation is an extreme case in the A-share market, reflecting that the rally is purely driven by concept speculation and capital, rather than based on expectations of performance improvement.

: The company has triggered the criteria for severe abnormal fluctuations in stock trading, with a cumulative deviation of +100% in 10 trading days [1]. Historically, stocks that trigger such warnings often face regulatory scrutiny or even temporary suspension risks. Several concept stocks have voluntarily issued risk warnings to cool down market sentiment, such as China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. (China Satcom) announcing that “the stock price has reached a historical high and has seriously deviated from fundamentals” [9], BDStar Navigation Co., Ltd. noting that “commercial spaceflight is only one of the application scenarios of the company’s products and services” [9], and Aerospace Universe Co., Ltd. forecasting that revenue related to commercial spaceflight will account for less than 15% of total revenue in 2025 [9].

: Negative fundamental factors such as sustained losses, declining revenue, high accounts receivable risks, and uncertainties during business transformation have not changed. The company’s fundamentals are difficult to support the current valuation level in the short term.

: The current market is in an extremely excited state regarding the brain-computer interface concept, and the sector is overall overheated. Once sentiment fades, the stock price may face the risk of a sharp decline.

: The brain-computer interface industry has broad prospects. According to industry research forecasts, the global market size may grow to approximately USD 12.4 billion by 2034 [2]. In the long term, the industry’s growth potential provides certain upside potential for related concept stocks.

: Although still in a loss-making state, the company’s loss has narrowed year-on-year, showing certain signs of improvement. If new business fields can be successfully developed, there is potential for performance improvement in the future.

: The overlap of the brain-computer interface + commercial spaceflight dual concepts provides sustained market attention and capital inflow support for the company.

The nature of Pony Testing’s strong performance is clearly

, rather than fundamental-driven. Concept speculation and capital push are the core driving forces, and the company’s current fundamentals cannot provide effective support for the stock price.

Evaluation Dimension	Judgment Result
Driving Factors	Concept speculation (brain-computer interface + commercial spaceflight), not performance-driven
Fundamental Support	Negative (expected loss of over RMB 200 million, revenue decline)
Technical State	Extremely strong, but severely overbought
Valuation Rationality	Serious deviation from fundamentals

: Extremely high risk. The sector’s popularity may maintain an inertial rally, but regulatory attention and risk warnings may trigger profit-taking at any time. Investors need to be highly alert to the top signal of “heavy volume with stagnant price”. Once there is an abnormal surge in trading volume but the stock price stagnates, they should exit decisively.

: Extremely high risk. The company continues to incur losses, with no substantial improvement in fundamentals. After the concept fades, the stock price faces the risk of a sharp decline. Fundamental support can only be obtained after actual performance improvement, and entering at the current price carries high medium-term risks.

For investors with different risk preferences, differentiated strategies are recommended: Investors with high risk tolerance may consider participating with a small position, but must strictly set a stop-loss (refer to the 5-day moving average), enter and exit quickly, and not hold on for too long. Conservative investors should mainly wait and see, not chase highs to participate in concept speculation, and avoid being “bag holders”. Value investors should resolutely avoid the stock, and only pay attention to it after fundamentals improve and valuation returns to a reasonable level.

Pony Testing (300887) is currently in a typical concept speculation + capital-driven rally phase. The company’s fundamentals are under obvious pressure, with an expected loss of RMB 200-250 million in 2025 and year-on-year revenue decline. However, due to the dual concepts of brain-computer interface and commercial spaceflight, its stock price has doubled in half a month. The technicals show severe overbought conditions, with highly concentrated chips and abundant profit-taking orders. Several concept stocks have issued risk warnings, and the risk of regulatory attention is rising. Investors should fully recognize the high-risk characteristics of the current price, invest rationally, and refrain from chasing highs.

---

[0] Securities Times: Pony Testing Expects a Loss of RMB 200 Million in 2025

[1] AASTOCKS: Announcement on Severe Abnormal Fluctuations in Pony Testing’s Stock Trading

[2] Securities Times: Musk’s Mass Production Declaration Ignites Accelerated Commercialization of Brain-Computer Interfaces

[3] Stock Review Network: Pony Testing Driven by Both Brain-Computer Interface and Commercial Spaceflight

[4] Securities Times: Pony Testing, 3 Daily Limits in 4 Days, Expects a Minimum Loss of RMB 200 Million in 2025

[5] China Finance Information Network: Pony Testing’s 2025 Performance Forecast

[6] Eastmoney Wealth Account: Analysis of the Logic Behind Pony Testing’s Breakout with Heavy Volume

[7] Eastmoney Wealth Account: Professional Analysis of 300887

[8] Gelonghui: Pony Testing Expects Full-Year Loss in 2025

[9] Cls.cn: 12 Daily Limits in 16 Days - Packaging and Printing Leading Stock to Suspend Trading for Verification Tomorrow