Analysis of the Impact of BAIC BluePark's L3 Autonomous Driving Vehicle Commercialization Progress on Valuation Prospects

Based on the data collected above, I now present a comprehensive analysis report:

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On December 15, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) officially announced the first batch of access permits for L3 conditional autonomous driving models. Arcfox Alpha S (L3 Edition), a model under BAIC BluePark, became one of the first models approved for road piloting on specific expressway sections in Beijing[1]. This marks the official transition of China’s L3 autonomous driving from the technical verification phase to the commercial application phase.

Configuration Item	Detailed Specifications
Perception System	34 high-performance sensors
LiDAR	3 solid-state LiDARs
Pilot Sections	Jingtai Expressway, Airport North Line Expressway, Daxing Airport Expressway
Maximum Speed	80 km/h
Operating Entity	Beijing Mobility Automotive Service Co., Ltd.
Opening to Individual Users	Planned for Q2 2025

The most fundamental difference between L3 and L2 autonomous driving lies in the

. Within the officially approved Operational Design Domain (ODD), when the system is activated, driving control rights and the primary liability for resulting accidents shift from the driver to the autonomous driving system itself[1]. This means that on eligible sections, drivers can legally achieve phased liberation of their eyes and hands, realizing a qualitative shift from “human-driven with machine assistance” to “machine-driven with human assistance”.

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BAIC BluePark has become one of the first domestic automakers to obtain L3 access permits, leading the L3 commercialization track together with Changan Automobile. This technological leadership brings a significant

to the company:

• Enhanced Brand Value
  : As one of the first L3 autonomous driving models to “obtain official qualification”, the Arcfox brand’s technological image has been significantly enhanced, helping it establish a differentiated competitive advantage in the high-end intelligent electric vehicle market[2]
• Huawei Technical Endorsement
  : The Arcfox Alpha S6 is equipped with Huawei Kunlun Intelligent Driving System, and in-depth cooperation with Huawei has enhanced market recognition of the company’s intelligent technological capabilities[3]
• Increased Capital Market Attention
  : The implementation of L3 commercialization marks the company’s strategic transformation from a traditional automaker to an intelligent mobility technology company, which is expected to attract more investors focusing on the new energy vehicle and autonomous driving tracks

Sales of the Arcfox brand show

, providing fundamental support for valuation recovery:

Time Period	Arcfox Sales (Units)	YoY Growth Rate
2023 Full Year	30,000	—
2024 Full Year	81,017	170%
Jan-Feb 2025 (2 days)	1,264	—
H1 2025	53,183	198%

Since June 2024, Arcfox’s monthly sales have successfully exceeded 8,000 units, and have continuously surpassed 10,000 units since August, reaching a historical high of 12,032 units in December[4]. This sales growth trend indicates that the Arcfox brand has begun to develop

and has entered a positive cycle.

L3 autonomous driving has significantly higher requirements for perception, computing power, and system integration, driving a continuous increase in per-vehicle value:

• Upgraded Sensor Configuration
  : Top-tier solution with 34 high-performance sensors + 3 solid-state LiDARs
• Demand for High-Computing Chips
  : Huawei ADS 2.0 High-Level Intelligent Driving System
• Value of Software Algorithms
  : End-to-end large model-driven intelligent driving system

These hardware and software upgrades not only enhance product competitiveness but also bring higher

to the company.

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Despite positive expectations brought by L3 commercialization, the company’s financial situation still faces severe challenges:

Financial Indicator	2023	2024	H1 2025
Revenue (RMB 100 million)	143.2	145.1	95.2
Net Profit Attributable to Parent (RMB 100 million)	-54.0	-69.5	-23.1
Cumulative Loss (2020-2024)	>RMB 30 billion	—	—
Operating Cash Flow (RMB 100 million)	—	-15.72	—

The company has been sustaining losses since 2020, with cumulative losses exceeding RMB 30 billion[5]. In 2024, net loss attributable to parent was RMB 6.948 billion, representing a 28.67% year-on-year increase in losses, setting a new record for the largest loss since listing. In H1 2025, the loss was RMB 2.308 billion; although the loss has narrowed year-on-year, profitability remains severely insufficient.

Financial data shows that the company’s capital pressure continues to increase:

• Monetary Funds
  : Decreased from RMB 11.852 billion at the end of 2024 to RMB 7.858 billion at the end of Q1 2025[5]
• Operating Cash Flow
  : RMB -1.572 billion in 2024, a 238.05% year-on-year decrease[5]
• Cash and Cash Equivalents
  : Decreased from RMB 8.301 billion at the end of 2024 to RMB 3.687 billion at the end of Q1 2025

Interest expenses from high debt have further increased the financial burden. The company plans to raise no more than RMB 6 billion via private placement to ease capital pressure, among which BAIC Group intends to subscribe RMB 500 million and Foton Motor intends to subscribe RMB 2.5 billion[6].

Despite rapid sales growth, the issue of

remains prominent:

Period	Per-Vehicle Loss (RMB 10,000/unit)
Q4 2024	6.11
Q1 2025	3.5

Sales growth has not yet reached a scale that can fully allocate fixed costs, leading to continuous compression of profit margins[7]. The company’s R&D expenses have risen from RMB 973 million in 2020 to RMB 1.76 billion in 2024, and investment in channel construction is also continuously increasing; these investments are difficult to fully convert into profits in the short term.

Competition in the new energy vehicle market is becoming increasingly fierce, and competitors such as Tesla, BYD, NIO, and XPeng are all accelerating the research and development of intelligent driving technology. There is still uncertainty whether the first-mover advantage in L3 commercialization can be converted into a sustained market share advantage.

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Factor	Impact Level	Explanation
L3 Access First-Mover Advantage	★★★★★	One of the first approved enterprises, enhancing brand premium
Rapid Sales Growth	★★★★☆	170% growth rate for Arcfox brand, entering positive cycle
Huawei Technical Collaboration	★★★★☆	Endorsement of intelligent technological capabilities
Sustained Policy Support	★★★★☆	National strategic support for intelligent connected vehicles

Factor	Impact Level	Explanation
Sustained Losses	★★★★★	Cumulative losses exceeding RMB 30 billion
Tight Capital Chain	★★★★☆	Significant consumption of cash reserves
Insufficient Per-Vehicle Profitability	★★★★☆	Economies of scale not yet realized
Industry Competition	★★★☆☆	Ongoing price wars

：The positive impact of L3 commercialization on valuation is mainly reflected in . The market may grant the company a certain technical premium, but considering sustained losses and capital pressure, the space for valuation recovery is limited. It is expected that the company will continue to replenish funds through private placement and other methods to support R&D and channel investment.

：With the realization of economies of scale in Arcfox brand sales and the penetration of L3 technology into more models, the company is expected to gradually achieve monthly break-even. Soochow Securities predicts that the company’s net profit attributable to parent will turn positive in 2027, reaching RMB 1.31 billion[6].

：If L3/L4 autonomous driving technology can achieve large-scale commercial operation, the company is expected to transform from a traditional vehicle manufacturer to an intelligent mobility technology enterprise, and the valuation logic will shift from “Price-to-Earnings (PE)” to “User Value (ARR/MAU)” or “Technical Premium” models.

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Valuation Method	Valuation Range	Notes
Price-to-Sales (PS)	1.5-2.5x	Based on 2024 revenue of RMB 14.5 billion
Price-to-Book (PB)	3-5x	Based on the company’s heavy asset nature
Scenario Valuation	Dependent on L3 commercialization progress	30-50% premium if successful

• Monthly Sales Data
  : Arcfox brand’s sales growth rate is the core indicator for verifying market acceptance of L3 technology
• Gross Margin Changes
  : Improvement in per-vehicle profitability is a key signal for valuation recovery
• Capital Status
  : Progress of private placement and changes in cash flow
• L3 Function Rollout Progress
  : Progress of opening to individual users in Q2 2025

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The commercialization progress of BAIC BluePark’s L3 autonomous driving vehicles is a

, and has a on the company’s valuation. Technological leadership, Huawei collaboration endorsement, and policy support bring significant potential for valuation premium to the company.

However, challenges such as

that the company currently faces cannot be ignored. Substantial valuation improvement driven by L3 commercialization depends on continuous expansion of sales scale and improvement in per-vehicle profitability. Investors are advised to closely monitor the company’s sales growth trend, improvement in capital status, and progress of L3 function opening to individual users.

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[1] Wangtongshe - “L3 on the Road, End of Driving? Real Challenges Behind Beijing’s First Batch of ‘Hands-Free’ Pilot” (https://www.news18a.com/news/storys_218833.html)

[2] Aijian Securities - Industry Special Report: “First Batch of L3 Autonomous Driving Models Obtain Access Permits” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512231806620673_1.pdf)

[3] Cailianshe - “L3 is Here! CAAM: Autonomous Driving Accelerates Towards ‘Mass Production Application’” (https://9fzt.com/common/2985905eb39b3d00157cf89269c55c3b.html)

[4] Xinhua News Agency - “Arcfox Secures 1,264 Orders in 2 Days, BAIC BluePark Welcomes a Strong Start with New Year Pricing” (http://www.news.cn/auto/20250227/0b9266bbc29b4e5bb868c0cb9e365bc1/c.html)

[5] Xchuxing - “Losses Exceed RMB 30 Billion: BAIC BluePark’s Struggles and Hidden Worries in the New Energy Vehicle Track” (https://www.xchuxing.com/article/152292)

[6] Eastmoney - “Review of BAIC BluePark (600733) 2024 Annual Report & 2025 Q1 Report” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202504301665191551_1.pdf)

[7] Sina Finance - “BAIC BluePark Loses RMB 2.3 Billion in Half a Year, Cumulative Losses Exceed RMB 23 Billion in Four Years” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2025-08-15/doc-infmaiqz4335600.shtml)