Hong Kong Stock ETFs Attract Over RMB 10 Billion in Early 2026: In-Depth Analysis of Institutional Capital Allocation Timing and Logic

Based on the latest market data, capital flow information, and professional analysis, I provide an in-depth interpretation of the “capital attraction” phenomenon of Hong Kong stock ETFs in the early days of the year:

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Indicator	Value	YoY Change
Annual Net Inflow of Southbound Capital	HK$1404.844 billion	Up 73.89%
Cumulative Net Inflow (Since Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect & Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Launch)	Over HK$5.1 trillion	-
Market Value of Stocks Held by Southbound Capital	HK$6140.883 billion	Accounts for >12% of total Hong Kong stock market capitalization
Annual Capital Inflow of Hong Kong Stock Technology-Themed ETFs	Over RMB 140 billion	-
Scale of Hang Seng Technology ETF Track	Exceeds RMB 320 billion	-

In just the first 4 trading days of 2026, the total net subscription amount of Hong Kong stock-themed ETFs exceeded

, with multiple products hitting record-high share volumes since their listing [1][2].

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According to a research report from Everbright Securities, southbound capital is shifting from

, and capital allocation behavior is inversely calibrated with the AH Premium Index [3]. Specific manifestations include:

• Sustained Position Increase
  : Net purchases exceeded HK$100 billion in 8 months throughout the year, with the monthly peak of
  HK$188.518 billion
  recorded in September
• High Industry Concentration
  : Leading technology stocks saw substantial increases, with net purchases of over HK$10 billion for 8 individual stocks
• Increased Shareholding Ratio
  : The market value of stocks held accounts for over 12% of the total Hong Kong stock market capitalization, marking a significant rise in market discourse power

Dimension	Analysis Points
Valuation Advantage	The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is only 23.68x , located in the mid-to-low range of the historical quantile of 34.86% , with considerable room for valuation recovery [4]
Capital-Driven	Cumulative net inflow of southbound capital exceeds HK$5.1 trillion, which has become the “pricing anchor” of the Hong Kong stock market
Macro Environment	The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle is confirmed + loose monetary policies at home and abroad, leading to continuous improvement in liquidity
Fundamental Improvement	AI demand drives accelerated performance of leading technology companies, with Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Business posting a 34% YoY quarterly growth

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Time Period	Market Performance	Capital Behavior
Q1 2025	Hang Seng Index +15.25%, Hang Seng Technology Index +20.74%	Average monthly net purchase exceeds HK$150 billion
September 2025	Market Correction Period	Monthly net purchase of HK$188.5 billion (annual peak)
Full Year 2025	28 individual stocks rose over 100%	Continued to increase positions in leading technology stocks and innovative drugs
Early 2026	A-Shares “14 Consecutive Gains”	Hong Kong stock ETFs saw net subscriptions exceeding RMB 10 billion in 4 days [5]

From capital flow data analysis, the strategies adopted by institutions present the following characteristics:

1. Left-Side Layout
   : Accelerated inflow during market correction periods (e.g., September 2025)
2. Track Concentration
   : Focus on high-boom tracks such as technology, innovative drugs, and non-ferrous metals
3. Long-Term Holding
   : Meituan-W fell 31.91% for the full year, but southbound capital still increased positions by
   HK$73.299 billion
   , doubling its shareholding [3]

• Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130)
  attracted
  RMB 687 million
  in a single day, with its share volume rising to 59.4 billion shares and scale reaching RMB 44.5 billion [4]
• Hong Kong stock ETFs occupy the top three spots on the non-monetary ETF net capital inflow list
• Institutional products are actively submitted, and newly-launched funds proactively shorten the fundraising period to seize position-building opportunities

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1. Change in Capital Attributes
   • Southbound capital has shifted from “game traders” to “value investors”
   • Accounts for over 12% of the total market value of stocks held, with market pricing influence

2. Consistency of Institutional Behavior
   • Public Funds: China Asset Management has become the only Hong Kong stock ETF manager with a scale exceeding RMB 100 billion (scale over RMB 120 billion) [6]
   • Brokerage Research: Goldman Sachs expects China’s stock market to rise
     15%-20% annually
     in 2026-2027 [4]
   • Newly-Launched Products: Fund companies actively submit Hong Kong stock-themed products and proactively shorten the fundraising period

3. Macro Policy Support
   • Expanding domestic demand policy is listed as the top priority task in 2026
   • “Several Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of Innovative Drugs” was released
   • Expectations of further domestic interest rate cuts drive household deposit “migration”

4. Room for Valuation Recovery
   • Hong Kong stock technology stocks have fallen more sharply than global and A-share technology stocks
   • Goldman Sachs pointed out that the current valuation of China’s stock market has a
     significant discount
     compared to global peers

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• Southbound capital is expected to maintain a net inflow trend (predicted by Soochow Securities)
• The AI technology wave reshapes valuation logic
• The Hong Kong stock technology sector has dual support of “valuation bottom + performance inflection point”

• Changes in global liquidity environment
• Geopolitical risks
• Underperformance of some technology stocks

• Core Allocation
  : Hang Seng Technology ETF, Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF
• Satellite Allocation
  : Innovative Drug ETF, Non-Ferrous Metal ETF
• Strategy Recommendation
  : Adopt the strategy of “increasing positions on dips, building positions in batches”

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[1] Caifuhao - “2026 Market Starts Strong, the Core Still Lies in Technology Trading” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260106144120418346920)

[2] Jiu Fang Zhi Tou - “Epic Net Purchases Exceed HK$1.4 Trillion, Leading Technology Stocks See Substantial Increases” (https://9fzt.com/9fztgw_1_top/f3352654f9f1bb5885839b26bf077371.html)

[3] Securities Times Network - “Epic Net Purchases by Southbound Capital, Exceeding HK$1.4 Trillion for the Full Year” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3568902.html)

[4] Sina Fund - “Attracts Nearly RMB 700 Million in a Single Day! Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) Sees Share Volume Rise to 59.4 Billion Shares” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/jjh/2026-01-08/doc-inhfqpsr3828686.shtml)

[5] Securities Times Network - “Over RMB 10 Billion in Net Outflows, Hong Kong Stock ETFs and Non-Ferrous Metal ETFs Are Sought After by Capital” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3578368.html)

[6] Caifuhao - “Complete List of 30 Low-Fee ETFs! 10 Charts to Review China Asset Management ETFs” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260106155024518231720)