Analysis of the Impact of Kweichow Moutai's iMoutai APP User Growth Data on Its Channel Strategy Transformation and Valuation

Based on the above data and analysis, I will prepare a systematic and comprehensive analysis report for you.

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Based on the provided background data, the iMoutai APP achieved impressive results with over 2.7 million new users and over 400,000 paying users on its 9th day of launch. Most crucially,

, which means the platform has successfully reached real consumer groups that are difficult to cover through offline channels[0][1].

From a long-term data perspective, iMoutai’s user scale shows a rapid expansion trend:

• Early Launch Phase (2022)
  : Over 30 million registered users, with sales revenue reaching RMB 11.883 billion[2]
• Q3 2025
  : Registered users exceeded 80 million, with iMoutai revenue reaching RMB 12.692 billion[2]
• January 2026
  : Feitian Moutai was launched on a normalized basis; over 100,000 users successfully purchased Moutai during the 3-day New Year’s Day period[3][4]

This growth trajectory indicates that iMoutai has evolved from an initial sales auxiliary tool to a core strategic carrier for Moutai’s digital transformation.

From the perspective of user acquisition efficiency, iMoutai demonstrates significant platform value:

Period	Number of Registered Users	iMoutai Revenue (RMB 100 million)	Per User Contribution (RMB)
Early Launch Phase (2022)	30 million	118.83	396.10
Q3 2025	80 million	126.92	158.65

: Although the per-user contribution decreased from RMB 396 to RMB 159, the user scale increased by 167%, indicating that the platform is transforming from a “high-value niche” model to a “mass-market affordable” model, which is highly aligned with its “consumer-centric” strategic positioning[0][5].

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Moutai’s current channel structure has formed a diversified ecological structure of “4+6”:

• 4 Direct Sales Channels
  : Self-operated companies, iMoutai, e-commerce, supermarkets & hypermarkets
• 6 Social Channels
  : Distributors, supermarkets & hypermarkets, e-commerce, hotels, catering, group purchasing

Year	Direct Sales Revenue (RMB 100 million)	YoY Growth Rate	Wholesale & Agency Revenue (RMB 100 million)	YoY Growth Rate	Direct Sales Ratio
2022	493.79	+105.49%	743.94	-4.32%	39.89%
2023	672.33	+36.16%	799.64	+7.49%	45.67%
2024	748.43	+11.32%	957.69	+19.73%	43.89%
First Three Quarters of 2025	555.55	+6.86%	728.42	+6.29%	43.27%

:

1. Significant Slowdown in Direct Sales Growth
   : The revenue growth rate of direct sales channels plummeted from 105.49% in 2022 to 6.86% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating that the previous high-speed expansion period has ended and the direct sales channel has entered a mature and stable stage[0].

2. Wholesale Channel Rebounds Against the Trend
   : The growth rate of wholesale & agency revenue turned from negative to positive, reaching 19.73% in 2024, exceeding the growth rate of direct sales, reflecting Moutai’s rebalancing of channel strategies[2].

3. Fluctuations in iMoutai Revenue
   : After reaching a peak of RMB 22.374 billion in 2023, iMoutai’s revenue declined for consecutive years (YoY decrease of 10.51% in 2024, YoY decrease of 14.05% in the first three quarters of 2025), indicating that the original product structure can no longer sustain growth[0].

On December 31, 2025, Moutai announced the revision and upgrade of the iMoutai APP, integrating the original “Reservation·Application” and “Enjoy·Cloud Purchase” into a unified “iPurchase” entrance, and launched

starting from January 1, 2026[3][4].

Reform Dimension	Specific Measures	Strategic Intent
Product Matrix	Feitian Moutai (RMB 1,499) + Vintage Liquors (RMB 1,909-2,649) + Premium/Zodiac/Aged/Cultural Series	Build a “pyramid-shaped” product system to meet multi-level demands
Purchase Mechanism	Restock every 5 minutes, sold out within 30 seconds per restock, daily purchase limit of 6 bottles per person (before Spring Festival)	Curb scalper speculation and ensure fair purchase
Channel Integration	Cancel distribution model, promote diversified model of “self-sales + distribution + consignment sales + entrusted sales”	Activate channel enthusiasm and reshape profit distribution
Data-Driven	Integrate user behavior data, promote transformation from “production-driven sales” to “sales-driven production”	Improve operational efficiency and accurately match supply and demand

: A research report from Soochow Securities points out that Moutai’s 2026 adjustment direction is pragmatic and clear in thinking. The diversified and flat “forest-style” channel ecosystem helps to better tap into mass demand, and the market-oriented price system that curbs speculation is conducive to stabilizing sales as soon as possible[5].

• Short-Term Growing Pains
  : The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai dropped from RMB 2,220 per bottle at the beginning of 2025 to RMB 1,555 per bottle at the end of the year. The comprehensive cost of some distributors reached RMB 1,700-1,800 per bottle, resulting in a price inversion where “selling one bottle means losing money on one bottle”[3]
• Policy Hedging
  : Canceling the distribution model, adjusting the ex-factory price, and matching market policies are expected to directly reduce the burden on distributors
• Long-Term Transformation
  : Distributors need to enhance their “active sales” capabilities, transforming from passive wholesale to active marketing

• Lowered Wine Purchase Threshold
  : 53% of new users come from non-traditional channels, allowing real consumers to gain more fair purchase opportunities
• Guaranteed Authenticity and Traceability
  : Direct supply through official channels eliminates the risk of counterfeit liquor
• Price Perception
  : The official price benchmark of RMB 1,499 guides the market to return to rationality

• Data Asset Accumulation
  : Data such as click trajectories, geographic distribution, and consumption time periods accumulated behind each “instant sell-out” will become core assets for precise marketing and production capacity planning
• Enhanced Channel Discourse Power
  : Transition from relying on distributor networks to directly reaching 80 million users
• Restructuring of Pricing Power
  : Establish a price anchor through official channels to curb market speculation and hype

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Indicator	2022	2023	2024	First Three Quarters of 2025
iMoutai Revenue (RMB 100 million)	118.83	223.74	200.24	126.92
Proportion of Direct Sales Revenue	24.07%	33.28%	26.75%	22.85%
Proportion of Total Liquor Revenue	9.62%	15.21%	11.64%	9.88%

:

• iMoutai’s contribution to total liquor revenue peaked in 2023 and then declined, dropping to 9.88% in the first three quarters of 2025
• The normalized sales of Feitian Moutai are expected to reverse the downward trend of iMoutai’s revenue, and iMoutai’s revenue is expected to accelerate again in 2026

• The gross profit margin of direct sales channels is usually higher than that of wholesale channels (the ex-factory price is the same, but direct sales do not need to cede channel profits)
• The decline in the proportion of iMoutai’s revenue may exert short-term pressure on the overall gross profit margin

• The construction of digital channels requires continuous investment (Guizhou AiMoutai Data Technology Co., Ltd. has a registered capital of RMB 600 million)
• In the long run, digital channels help reduce channel management costs

• The payment collection cycle of direct sales channels is shorter, and cash inflows are more stable
• The consumer prepayment model can optimize operating cash flow

Based on the latest channel reform measures, analysts have adjusted Moutai’s performance forecasts for 2025-2027 as follows:

Indicator	2025	2026	2027
Total Operating Revenue (RMB 100 million)	1833.0	1842.9	1861.4
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (RMB 100 million)	902.0	905.0	917.9
YoY Growth Rate	+4.9%	+0.0%	+1.4%

: The volume of Moutai liquor supply remains stable year-on-year, with structural optimization (increase in supply of regular Moutai and premium products, reduction in other non-standard products)[5]

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As of January 10, 2026, the main valuation indicators of Kweichow Moutai are as follows[0]:

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison	Historical Percentile
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	19.75x	Liquor industry average is about 25x	At a 5-year low
Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)	6.92x	Higher than industry average	Medium level
EV/OCF	20.16x	-	-
Return on Equity (ROE)	36.48%	Significantly higher than industry average	At a high level
Net Profit Margin	51.51%	Top in the industry	Stable

1. Strengthened Valuation Support Logic
   :
   • The data assets and consumer reach formed by 80 million registered users are difficult to replicate under the traditional distribution model
   • Channel flattening helps enhance channel discourse power and the upper limit of profit margins
   • The market-oriented pricing mechanism reduces the risk of price inversion and stabilizes channel confidence

2. Reassessment of Growth Potential
   :
   • Short-term: Normalized sales of Feitian Moutai will directly contribute incremental revenue (assuming annual sales reach hundreds of thousands of tons, the revenue scale can reach tens of billions of yuan based on RMB 1,499 per bottle)
   • Mid-term: Data-driven precise marketing improves marketing efficiency
   • Long-term: Direct consumer reach (C-end orientation) reduces channel dependence and increases valuation premium

3. Decline in Risk Premium
   :
   • Improved channel order reduces the risk of wholesale price fluctuations
   • Direct consumer connection reduces the risk of dependence on distributors
   • Enhanced digital capabilities expand valuation imagination space

1. Short-Term Valuation Pressure
   :
   • Channel reform may trigger short-term performance fluctuations
   • If the shortage of Feitian Moutai persists for a long time, it may affect market sentiment
   • Adjustments to distributors’ interests may trigger channel games

2. Risk of Scarcity Perception
   :
   • Balancing affordability and “scarcity” is a long-term challenge
   • If the brand’s high-end positioning is damaged, it may affect the foundation of valuation premium

3. Impact of Competitive Landscape
   :
   • Channel flattening may intensify industry competition
   • Other liquor enterprises may follow suit, affecting Moutai’s first-mover advantage in channels

Based on the DCF model and relative valuation method, the analysis of Moutai’s valuation range is as follows:

Valuation Method	Valuation Result	Remarks
Relative Valuation (P/E 19-22x)	RMB 1,360-1,575	Based on current performance, the bottom support is clear
Relative Valuation (P/B 6-8x)	RMB 1,420-1,890	ROE supports the lower limit of valuation
DCF Valuation (Neutral Scenario)	RMB 1,550-1,750	Considering convergence of perpetual growth rate
Current Stock Price	RMB 1,419	At the lower end of the valuation range

: The current stock price corresponds to about 19.1x the 2026 forecasted P/E, and the 75% dividend ratio corresponds to about 4% dividend yield in 2026, indicating that the valuation has a high margin of safety[5].

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:

• Verify the effectiveness of channel reform during the Spring Festival sales peak season
• The trend of Feitian Moutai’s wholesale price is a core observation indicator
• Pay attention to iMoutai’s sales data and user growth situation

:

• The implementation of adjustments to the channel profit distribution mechanism
• The stability of the distributor system
• The stabilization and rebound of performance growth rate

:

• The effectiveness of digital transformation (value of C-end user assets)
• Product structure optimization (pyramid-shaped product system)
• Brand value reshaping (redefinition of the scarcity anchor point)

Risk Type	Specific Risk	Impact Level
Channel Risk	Channel games triggered by adjustments to distributors’ interests	Medium-High
Price Risk	Feitian Moutai’s wholesale price falls below RMB 1,499	Medium
Demand Risk	Sustained weakness in liquor consumption demand	Medium
Competition Risk	Erosion of first-mover advantage due to imitation by other liquor enterprises	Low
Policy Risk	Changes in industry policies affecting channel strategies	Low

Maintain the

, with the core logics as follows:

1. The channel reform direction is pragmatic, which helps to activate channel enthusiasm
2. The valuation is at a historical low with sufficient margin of safety
3. The 75% dividend ratio corresponds to a 4% dividend yield, highlighting allocation value
4. The brand has a deep moat, and its long-term value is stable

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The user growth data of the iMoutai APP is an important testament to the effectiveness of Moutai’s digital transformation. 53% of new users come from non-traditional channels, reaching real consumers that are difficult to cover offline, which marks a substantive breakthrough for Moutai in direct consumer connection (C-end orientation).

:

1. Transform from “relying on distributors” to “direct control of terminals”, building a “4+6” diversified channel ecosystem
2. Upgrade from “production-driven sales” to “sales-driven production”, with data-driven precise marketing
3. Transform from “channel profit distribution” to “consumer value creation”

:

1. Short-term: Normalized sales of Feitian Moutai directly contribute incremental revenue
2. Mid-term: Enhanced channel discourse power supports profit margins
3. Long-term: Reassessment of valuation logic based on the data assets of 80 million users

Currently, Moutai is in the deep-water zone of channel reform, and short-term growing pains will not change its long-term value. Investors should focus on Spring Festival sales data, wholesale price trends, and changes in iMoutai’s user activity, and seize the allocation opportunity at the valuation bottom.

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Market Data and Financial Analysis of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) (January 10, 2026)
[1] Jiemian News - “Can Consumers Get the RMB 1,499 Moutai?” (https://m.jiemian.com/article/13842864.html)
[2] Tencent News - “Feitian Moutai Launched on iMoutai: Can New Leader Chen Hua’s ‘Market-Oriented’ Bet Turn the Tide?” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260105A05X9Y00)
[3] CNFOl - “Moutai’s 2025 Final Battle: RMB 1,499 Feitian Moutai Launched on iMoutai, Channel Flattening Reshapes the Value Logic of Liquor” (http://mp.cnfol.com/29171/article/1767192730-142194864)
[4] CQNEWS.NET - “Over 100,000 Orders! 'iMoutai’s RMB 1,499 Feitian Moutai Snapped Up for 4 Consecutive Days” (https://www.cqnews.net/web/content_1457380732549292032.html)
[5] Soochow Securities - Research Report on Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202601051815430375_1.pdf)