Analysis of the Impact of Changes in U.S. Sanctions Policy on Venezuela

I have now collected sufficient information, let me conduct a systematic analysis for you.

On January 3, 2026, the U.S. launched a landmark military operation against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and announcing that it would “manage” Venezuela’s affairs [1][2][3]. This event marks a major escalation of the U.S. sanctions policy against Venezuela:

• Full Oil Blockade
  : The U.S. ordered a “complete and total blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela [1]
• Change in Government Designation
  : Designated the Maduro government as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” [1][4]
• Asset Seizures
  : Seized Venezuelan oil tankers and intercepted oil shipments in the Caribbean Sea [4]
• Enterprise Takeover
  : Announced that U.S. major oil companies will lead the future operation of Venezuela’s oil resources [2][5]

: At least 16 sanctioned oil tankers attempted to evade the U.S. blockade, some by turning off their AIS transponders to disguise their positions [6]. According to monitoring, 76 “dark fleet” VLCC tankers transported Venezuelan crude oil in 2025, of which 44 (58%) were not sanctioned; these tankers may shift to Iranian trade [7].

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Indicator	Data	Explanation
Venezuela’s Daily Output	~1 million barrels	Accounts for less than 1% of global production
Export Volume	Dropped to near zero	Over 17 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea
November Export Volume	~650,000 barrels/day	16.71% month-on-month decrease
WTI Crude Oil Price	~$57-$58 per barrel	Limited volatility

: Although Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves (~303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of global reserves), its current production capacity is limited, so the [2][8]. The market reaction was relatively “calm,” with only minor fluctuations in international oil prices [2].

: Short-term geopolitical tensions may push up the oil price risk premium, mainly reflected in the following aspects [8]:

• Increased shipping risks in the Caribbean Sea, leading to higher transportation costs
• Traders generally avoid related risks, creating supply gaps in the market
• Rising risk aversion sentiment, with capital likely to flow into traditional safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries

[4][5][9]:

• Production Recovery Expectations
  : If sanctions are lifted, production may increase by 100,000-150,000 barrels/day to 950,000 barrels/day within 3 months, reach 1.1-1.2 million barrels/day by the end of 2026, and may climb to 1.7-1.8 million barrels/day by 2028
• Huge Investment Demand
  : Reconstructing Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to require
  over $100 billion in investment over the next decade
  [9]
• Long Infrastructure Restoration
  : Oil port equipment is in a state of disrepair; it takes five days to load a supertanker bound for China (compared to only one day seven years ago)

[4][5][10]:

• U.S. Gulf Coast Refineries
  will be the main beneficiaries (structurally short of heavy sour crude oil)
• China’s Local Private Refineries
  face supply challenges (imported ~400,000 barrels/day in 2025)
• Canadian Oil Sands
  may be replaced (account for over 75% of U.S. heavy crude oil imports)

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Company/Sector	Price Increase	Investment Rationale
Chevron (CVX)	+6.3%	The only U.S. major oil company still operating in Venezuela, with first-mover advantage
Valero Energy (VLO)	+9.5%	Core beneficiary among U.S. Gulf Coast refineries
Schlumberger (SLB)	+9%+	Oilfield services giant, benefits from reconstruction demand
Halliburton (HAL)	+5%+	Increased demand for drilling services
Chinese Oil and Gas Stocks	Multiple stocks hit daily upward limit	Zhongyou Co., Ltd. hit a one-day upward limit, followed by companies like Tongyuan Petroleum

[10]:

• Core Positive Catalyst
  : Potential for improved refining margins
• Competitive Advantage
  : China’s “discounted oil” advantage disappears, optimizing the competitive environment for Taiwan’s petrochemical industry
• Allocation Suggestion
  : Monitor monthly revenue and changes in refining margins

• Canadian Oil Sands Enterprises
  : Stocks of Suncor Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, etc. fell [5]
• Traditional Venezuelan Crude Oil Buyers
  : China’s small and medium-sized refineries, Indian and Spanish refiners

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1. Focus on Refinery Stocks
   : Refiners with heavy crude oil processing capacity will benefit from raw material structure adjustments
2. Oilfield Services Sector
   : Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, etc. will benefit from Venezuela’s reconstruction demand
3. Risk Hedging
   : Pay attention to volatility risks brought by geopolitical uncertainty

1. U.S. Oil Majors
   : Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips may gain first-mover advantage in Venezuela’s oil development
2. Improved Refining Margins
   : Reduced global refining capacity will support refining margins favorably
3. Key Mineral Layout
   : Focus on minerals in the new energy industry chain such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths (strategic value of the Latin American region has increased) [8]

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Risk Type	Details
Geopolitical Risk	It will take time for Venezuela’s political situation to stabilize, and oil production recovery will not happen overnight
Implementation Risk	The legal and fiscal systems of the U.S.-backed interim government are imperfect
Investment Return Risk	Reconstruction costs may exceed $100 billion, with a long investment payback period
China’s Retaliation Risk	China may take retaliatory measures that affect global energy trade
Market Expectation Gap	If the U.S. fails to maintain effective control, oil prices may fluctuate sharply

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The drastic changes in U.S. sanctions policy against Venezuela are reshaping the global energy trade pattern. In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium will support oil prices, but the market’s supply and demand fundamentals (OPEC+ has approximately 5.2 million barrels/day of spare capacity) will limit the price increase [8]. In the medium to long term, if the U.S. successfully takes control of Venezuela’s oil resources, the global heavy crude oil supply pattern will undergo fundamental changes, with

.

Investors should closely monitor key variables such as the progress of U.S.-Venezuela relations, the direction of U.S. policy toward Venezuela, OPEC+ production decisions, and changes in global oil inventories.

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[1] China News Service - “A Comprehensive Look! The Chain Impact of Venezuela’s Political Upheaval on Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar, and Gold” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601043607838623.html)

[2] The Beijing News - “Venezuela Amid Oil Export Blockade: A ‘Black Swan’ Event Shakes the Global Energy Pattern” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-01-06/doc-inhfikqx7442426.shtml)

[3] People’s Daily - “U.S. ‘Flash Strike’ on Venezuela: The Global Energy Pattern May Be Transformed” (http://paper.people.com.cn/zgnyb/pc/content/202601/05/content_30130668.html)

[4] Securities Times - “What Impacts Will Trump’s ‘Takeover’ of Venezuela Bring to the Global Energy Market?” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3570344.html)

[5] Sina Finance - “Trump Promises to Revitalize Venezuela’s Energy Industry; Chevron and U.S. Oil Stocks Surge in Response” (https://www.xincai.com/article/nhfhpmh6594101)

[6] New York Times - “Sanctioned Oil Tankers Flee Venezuela in Defiance of U.S. Blockade” (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/oil-tankers-venezuela-blockade.html)

[7] Breakwave Advisors - “Venezuela raises questions for tanker demand” (https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2026/1/7/venezuela-raises-questions-for-tanker-demand)

[8] Lianhe Zaobao - “Analysis: U.S. Reconstruction of Venezuela’s Oil Industry Will Be Costly and Protracted” (https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20260106-8057254)

[9] Davis Polk - “Treasury Targets Oil Traders Engaged in Sanctions Evasion” (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0348)

[10] SinoPac Securities - “Is a Turning Point Emerging for Formosa Petrochemical (6505)? How Trump’s Military Intervention in Venezuela Will Reshape 2026 Refining Margins and Traditional Industry Layouts in the Taiwan Stock Market” (https://www.sinotrade.com.tw/richclub/hotstock/台塑化-6505-轉機浮現-川普出兵委內瑞拉如何重塑2026煉油利差與台股傳產佈局--股市話題)