Analysis of Pop Mart LABUBU Price Correction and Outlook for the Trendy Toy Industry

Based on the latest collected market information, I will provide an in-depth analysis of the resale price correction of Pop Mart’s LABUBU series, as well as the current status and future of the trendy toy industry, from multiple dimensions.

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According to data from multiple resale platforms, the LABUBU series experienced a sharp price correction in the second half of 2025 [1]:

Series	Peak Price	Current Price	Price Drop
High Energy Ahead Series - Hidden “True Self”	~RMB3,000	~RMB530	Over 80%
Secret Code Series (Full Set of 14)	~RMB1,800	~RMB1,022	Over 40%
High Energy Ahead Series - Regular Models	-	Below RMB99 Issue Price	Trading Below Issue Price
Sitting Party Vinyl Plush Series (Full Set)	RMB1,478	RMB632	~57%

More notably, after a large-scale full-platform restock on June 18, 2025, the price of the hidden “True Self” plummeted from RMB4,522 to RMB2,433 in just 4 days, representing a 46% drop [3].

The core reason for the price crash lies in a

:

• Significant Official Capacity Expansion
  : Yuan Junjie, President of Pop Mart’s Supply Chain Center, stated that the monthly production capacity of plush toys reached 30 million units in August 2025,
  more than 10 times
  the figure for the same period last year, and is expected to reach 50 million units per month in December [1]
• Normalized Large-Scale Restocks
  : Starting from June 18, 2025, the official launched multiple rounds of large-scale restocks (September 22, September 29, October 31, November 11, etc.), breaking the scarcity created by limited editions [3]
• Abolition of Flash Sale Model
  : Starting from January 2026, limited flash sales for multiple LABUBU series have been discontinued, supporting single-box or full-set purchases with delivery within 48 hours [3]

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From multiple perspectives, the hype bubble in the trendy toy industry has indeed gone through a bursting process:

:

• Hidden models were hyped to sky-high prices (e.g., a LABUBU co-branded model rose from RMB599 to RMB14,839, representing a nearly 24x premium) [3]
• It became normal for “a single doll to be hard to come by,” with consumers queuing up overnight to snap them up
• A large number of scalpers and speculators entered the market, forming a “shadow inventory liquidator” [4]

:

• Official Active “Cooling Down” —— Founder Wang Ning stated: “After September 2025, monthly sales of LABUBU may reach nearly 10 million units” [3]
• Speculative capital exited the market, and resale merchants publicly stated that they would “suspend purchases of the LABUBU series” [1]
• Data from Xianyu shows that 69% of users are bearish on the subsequent trend

The capital market has reacted more acutely:

• Stock Price Crash
  : Pop Mart’s stock price fell from its August 2025 high of HK$339.8 to HK$187.7 on December 31, 2025, representing a cumulative drop of approximately
  44.8%
  [2]
• Market Capitalization Evaporation
  : Since the August peak, the total market capitalization has evaporated by over
  HK$200 billion
  [5]
• Valuation Correction
  : The market is re-examining the sustainability of new consumption business models, retracting the high P/E ratios previously given to “financial assets” [4]

---

:

• THE MONSTERS series (including LABUBU) accounted for as much as
  34.7%
  of total revenue in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 668.4% [4]
• IPs in the trendy toy industry are updated rapidly, with an average lifecycle of 2-3 years
• Industry experts point out that LABUBU is facing an “IP aging dilemma,” and market aesthetic fatigue is emerging [1]

:

• Domestic trendy toys generally rely on design and traffic marketing, with insufficient investment in cultural core development
• Offline store retail and online sales contribute over 95% of revenue, while IP ecosystem extensions (such as theme parks) account for less than 2% [6]

Despite short-term pressure, Pop Mart’s long-term growth logic has not completely failed:

:

• Overseas revenue in Q3 2025 grew
  365%-370%
  year-on-year
• Asia-Pacific revenue grew 170%-175% year-on-year, Americas revenue grew
  1265%-1270%
  year-on-year, and Europe and other regions saw a
  735%-740%
  year-on-year growth [5]
• Six global production bases have been fully established (covering Southeast Asia and Mexico) [1]

:

• Layout in the metaverse, launching the Pop Mart Universe virtual community
• Theme park upgrading projects are continuously advancing
• If the overseas expansion strategy can verify revenue diversification and cost optimization capabilities, it is expected to enter a valuation recovery phase [1]

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Industry insiders generally believe that the trendy toy industry is undergoing a transition from an “investment target” to an “emotional consumer good” [1]:

Dimension	Past Model	Future Direction
Product Positioning	Financialized, Speculative Product	Emotional Consumption, Self-Enjoyment Consumption
Value Anchor	Artificially Created Scarcity	IP Cultural Connotation, Product Quality
Competitive Strategy	Limited-Edition Marketing, SKU Proliferation	Community Operation, Diversified Consumption Experience
Growth Logic	Scalper-Driven	Organic Consumer Demand

• The size of China’s trendy toy market grew from RMB22.9 billion in 2020 to RMB76.3 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1%
• The market size is expected to reach RMB87.7 billion in 2025 [6]
• However, the market is concerned that the growth rate will return from “frenzied growth” to “steady growth” in 2026, and the valuation logic will be restructured [4]

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• The continued cooling of LABUBU’s popularity may impact short-term performance
• The collapse of secondary market prices may transmit to primary market confidence
• The risk of over-reliance on a single IP has not been fully eliminated

• Overseas markets still have significant penetration potential
• If it can successfully replicate the “Story-IP-Derivatives” ecological closed loop (such as the Disney model), a valuation re-rating can be expected
• Structural upgrading of trendy toy consumer groups (Gen Z contributes over 40% of market share) provides long-term demand support

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, but this is more like an “initiation ceremony” for the industry rather than a total collapse. The correction of LABUBU’s resale prices is an inevitable result of the official’s active capacity regulation and suppression of irrational premiums, as well as a reflection of the return of consumer rationality.

From an investment perspective, Pop Mart is experiencing growing pains as it transitions from the “Moutai Model” (physical scarcity) to the “Hermès Model” (controlled scarcity). Short-term valuation pressure is inevitable, but if it can successfully deepen IP cultural connotations, expand overseas markets, and build a diversified business ecosystem, its long-term value remains promising.

The future of the trendy toy industry should not be anchored on artificially created scarcity, but rather return to the essence of consumer goods — winning consumer minds with cultural connotations and product quality.

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[1] Securities Times - “From "Hard to Find a Single Doll" to "Some Trading Below Issue Price": What Happened to the "Hermès of Blind Boxes"?” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3568949.html)

[2] Central News Agency/CommonWealth Magazine - “All Bubbles? Pop Mart LABUBU Resale Prices Halved, Company Stock Price Plunged Over 40%” (https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/127104)

[3] Yangcheng Evening News - “No More Snapping Up LABUBU: Resale Market Prices Fall Below Original Prices, Pop Mart Customer Service Responds” (https://news.ycwb.com/ikimvkjtkn/content_53892834.htm)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “Pop Mart: Soaring Performance, Capital Fear of Heights” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251221/herald/3cf6cec610158a6951d66d7d4dd5d35c.html)

[5] China Business Network - “Pop Mart’s Market Capitalization Evaporated HK$200 Billion in Four Months, LABUBU Market Premium Fading” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3536845.html)

[6] Weikehao - “Capital Market: Burned by Trendy Toys” (https://mp.ofweek.com/Internet/a156714988537)