Analysis of the Dilemmas and Breakthrough Strategies for Single-Store Profit Models of New Tea Beverage Brands

Based on the data I collected and industry analysis reports, I will systematically analyze the dilemmas and breakthroughs of the single-store profit models of new tea beverage brands from multiple dimensions.

In 2024, the scale of China’s new-style tea beverage market reached 354.7 billion yuan, but the year-on-year growth rate was only 6.4%, far lower than the 24.9% compound annual growth rate during 2017-2022, marking the official entry of the industry into the stock game stage [1]. As of September 2025, the total number of ready-to-drink tea beverage stores nationwide exceeded 415,000, but 118,000 new stores opened in the past year, while the number of closed stores reached 157,000, resulting in a net growth of -39,000. Small and medium-sized independent stores are accelerating their withdrawal from the market [2].

2025 has become the first year of IPOs for new tea beverages, with four leading brands going public in succession [3]:

Brand	Listing Date	Listing Venue	Number of Stores (End of 2024)
Mixue Ice Cream & Tea	March 2025	Hong Kong Stock Exchange	46,000
Guming	February 2025	Hong Kong Stock Exchange	9,900
Hushang Auntie	May 2025	Hong Kong Stock Exchange	9,176
CHAGEE	April 2025	Nasdaq	6,440
Nayuki’s Tea	June 2021	Hong Kong Stock Exchange	1,798
Cha Baidao	April 2024	Hong Kong Stock Exchange	8,400+

The heat of the capital market cannot hide operational concerns: slowing revenue growth, declining single-store performance, and longer payback periods have become common problems [4].

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High-end direct-operated brands represented by Nayuki’s Tea are facing severe cost pressures:

• Rent Cost
  : The large-store model (80-200 square meters) leads to annual right-of-use asset depreciation exceeding 400 million yuan, accounting for about 10% of revenue [5]
• Material Cost
  : In the first half of 2025, material costs reached approximately 740 million yuan, accounting for 34.1% of total revenue, including tea leaves, dairy products, fresh fruits, etc. [5]
• Labor Cost
  : The total cost of materials, labor, rent, distribution service fees, etc., accounts for nearly 80% of revenue [5]

• The customer unit price of Nayuki’s Tea has gradually dropped from 42.9 yuan at the initial stage of listing to 25.7 yuan, with a cumulative decrease of nearly 40% [5]
• More than 76% of consumers focus on mid-priced tea beverages ranging from 11 to 25 yuan, resulting in a mismatch between high-end positioning and mass consumer demand [5]

Model	Representative Brands	Advantages	Disadvantages
Franchise Model	Mixue Ice Cream & Tea, Guming	Fast expansion, light assets, risk diversification	Difficult to manage, challenges in brand consistency
Direct Operation Model	Nayuki’s Tea, Heytea	Controllable quality, strong execution	High costs, slow expansion, high profit pressure

Mixue Ice Cream & Tea has realized a “scale flywheel” through the franchise model: the headquarters’ revenue comes from selling raw materials and equipment to franchisees. In 2024, sales revenue from goods and equipment reached 24.21 billion yuan, accounting for 97.5% of total revenue [4]. As long as single-store profitability remains good, the store network can continue to expand, and the headquarters’ revenue will achieve large-scale growth simultaneously.

According to industry research data,

[4]:

• When the average monthly profit of a store is only 10,000 yuan
• Monthly revenue is less than 90,000 yuan in high-tier cities and less than 50,000 yuan in low-tier cities
• The overall investment payback period is about 3 years, marking the start of the deterioration of the single-store model

In 2025, same-store growth performance varied significantly among brands: Mixue Ice Cream & Tea, Guming, and Luckin Coffee showed more resilient same-store growth, while brands like CHAGEE, Heytea, and Starbucks faced pressure on same-store growth [6].

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• The required store area has been reduced from 90-170 square meters to 40 square meters
• After reducing the store area, the proportion of right-of-use asset depreciation in revenue dropped from 10% to 8% [5]
• Exploring new store types or consumption scenarios to cover a wider range of consumer groups

Small-store models mean lower rent, fewer labor allocations, and more flexible site selection, fundamentally improving store efficiency per unit area.

Mixue Ice Cream & Tea’s supply chain advantages have verified the industry axiom “He who controls the supply chain controls the market” [3]:

Supply Chain Capability	Mixue Ice Cream & Tea	Industry Level
Self-sufficiency Rate of Core Ingredients	100%	Most brands rely on external procurement
Cold Chain Coverage Rate	97%	Industry average is about 60%
Revenue per Cup	Approximately 2.74 yuan	Above the cost line for most brands
Cost per Cup	Approximately 2 yuan	2-3 yuan for most brands

1. Upstream Self-Construction
   : Achieve independent R&D and production of core raw materials (tea leaves, dairy products, sugar)
2. Cold Chain Network
   : Improve distribution efficiency and reduce losses
3. Digital Management
   : AI predicts sales of popular products, with an error rate controlled within 5%, and inventory turnover rate increased by 40% [2]

The essence of the franchise model is a partnership with franchisees to co-create a single-store profit model [4]:

• Site selection training system
• Digital operation tools
• Supply chain support
• Brand marketing support

The ability to manage over 8,000 stores relies not only on strong management but also on a system that allows franchisees to “make money with more peace of mind” [7].

• In 2025, the usage rate of sugar substitutes in milk tea drinks reached 61.3%, an increase of 19.7 percentage points compared to 2023 [2]
• The application ratio of plant-based ingredients increased from 18.9% to 26.4% [2]
• Consumer attention to labels such as “real fruit” and “low sugar” reached 78.3% [2]

• Application of functional ingredients (probiotics, herbal plants)
• Personalized customization services
• Standardization and traceability of health-oriented labels

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Type	Representative Brands	Core Strategy
Extreme Efficiency Type	Mixue Ice Cream & Tea	Vertically integrated supply chain, compressing per-cup costs to support low-price strategies in sinking markets
Quality Premium Type	CHAGEE, Heytea	Efficient logistics ensures high-quality raw materials, supporting high customer unit prices and brand experience
Digital Balance Type	Cha Baidao	Digital systems and supply chain infrastructure to balance cost, efficiency and quality

The saturation of the domestic market has forced leading brands to explore overseas incremental markets [2]:

Brand	Overseas Layout	Achievements
Mixue Ice Cream & Tea	11 countries	Over 4,800 overseas stores, with average monthly GMV per store in Southeast Asia reaching 512,000 yuan
CHAGEE	6 countries	Overseas GMV exceeded 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 75.3%
Cha Baidao	South Korea, etc.	Develop exclusive SKUs tailored to local tastes

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The essence of the deterioration of single-store profit models in the new tea beverage industry is a

.

The breakthroughs lie in:

1. Model Transformation
   : The transformation from direct operation to franchise has become an inevitable trend, reducing fixed cost burdens
2. Store Type Optimization
   : Transformation from large stores to small stores, improving per-area efficiency and labor efficiency
3. In-Depth Supply Chain Cultivation
   : Integrating the industrial chain from procurement to self-production to achieve cost leadership
4. Differentiated Competition
   : Health orientation and personalization have become new value anchors

The industry will present a

pattern in the future, and capital will also promote mergers and integrations among brands. It is expected that by 2026, the new tea beverage track will complete a new round of reshuffling, and the brands that will eventually survive and grow will be those with no shortcomings in supply chain efficiency, single-store profitability, and brand differentiation.

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[1] China Financial Information Network - “Scanning the 350 Billion Yuan New Tea Beverage Market: Transformation Pains and Future Opportunities Under Stock Competition” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-12/doc-inhanyzn7195275.shtml)

[2] China Financial Information Network - Analysis of Market Scale and Health-Oriented Trends in the New Tea Beverage Industry (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-12/doc-inhanyzn7195275.shtml)

[3] Phoenix Net Finance - “Top 10 IPO Events in the Retail Circle in 2025” (https://h5.ifeng.com/c/vivoArticle/v002aADSNL5IvN-_erTpcOsBzO8V5dYs288ZDvfoInCmTGaU__)

[4] 36Kr - “2025 Catering Industry Review: The IPO Year of New Tea Beverages, Supply Chain Hidden Battle After Capital Feast” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3632093163275268)

[5] China Daily Website - “Once a ‘Capital Darling’ with 90% Market Value Decline: Why is Nayuki’s Tea’s High-End Path Struggling?” (https://qiye.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/19/WS6944ab98a310942cc49976cb.html)

[6] Dongfang Wealth Securities Research Report - “2026 Annual Strategy Report: Domestic Demand Favors High-End Consumption Pro-Cyclical” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202601031814057433_1.pdf)

[7] 36Kr - “New Tea Beverages in 2026: Half Deep Sea, Half Ocean” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3626319079961091)