Analysis Report on the Impact of Sudden Changes in Anti-Internal Competition Policies for the Photovoltaic Industry

Based on collected real-time data and policy information, I provide you with a systematic analysis report on

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The “anti-internal competition” initiative in China’s photovoltaic industry has undergone a gradual escalation process from

[1][2]:

Time Node	Policy/Meeting	Core Content
February 2024	4th Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission	First clarified the industrial adjustment principle of “encouraging advanced capacity and eliminating backward capacity”
July 2024	Meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee	Proposed “strengthening industry self-discipline to prevent internal cutthroat competition”
December 2024	Central Economic Work Conference	Upgraded to “comprehensive rectification of internal cutthroat competition”
February 2025	State Council Executive Meeting	Focused on “optimizing industrial layout and promoting integration and restructuring”
July-August 2025	Symposium of Six Ministries Including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology	Strengthened implementation, clarifying that sales prices cannot be lower than costs
December 9, 2025	Registration of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology	Official establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform
January 6, 2026	Interview by the State Administration for Market Regulation	Required no agreements on prices or production capacity, warning of suspected monopoly risks

The photovoltaic industry’s anti-internal competition policy has formed an integrated governance path of

[1]:

1. Capacity Regulation and Orderly Phase-Out
   : The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology raised the capital ratio for new projects from 20% to 30%, strictly controlling new non-technologically breakthrough capacity
2. Price Floor Mechanism
   : The China Photovoltaic Industry Association released the minimum cost price of modules at RMB 0.68–0.69 per watt
3. Standard Positioning
   : Plans to eliminate P-type cells and silicon wafers smaller than 182mm, raising the cell efficiency threshold to over 25%
4. Industry-Wide Production Cut
   : Polysilicon operating rate decreased by 10–15%, and photovoltaic glass production was collectively cut by 30%

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Since the implementation of the anti-internal competition policies, polysilicon prices have achieved a

[1][2][3]:

Time Node	Average Price of N-Type Polysilicon Feedstock	Cumulative Increase
Early July 2025	RMB 35,400/ton	Benchmark
Late November 2025	RMB 53,600/ton	+51.4%
December 30, 2025	RMB 57,800/ton	+63.3%
January 6, 2026	RMB 59,200/ton	+67.2%
January 9, 2026	RMB 60,500/ton	+70.9%

Silicon wafer prices rebounded simultaneously, rising from RMB 0.86–1.19 per wafer at the start of Q3 to RMB 1.2–1.52 per wafer, an increase of approximately 40%.

Indicator	Change	Data Source
Polysilicon Output	Down 29.6% YoY	Industry Association
Silicon Wafer Capacity	First negative growth in four years (-5.6%)	Industry Statistics
Module Capacity Utilization	Rebounded to 48.3%	Industry Data
Losses of Main Chain Enterprises	Decreased by 46.7% MoM	Listed Company Financial Reports
Daqo New Energy, GCL Technology	First to turn profitable	Financial Report Disclosures

As of the end of November 2025, the total market value of 31 listed companies in the photovoltaic main industry chain increased by

compared to May [2].

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On January 6, 2026, the

the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six leading polysilicon enterprises: Tongwei, GCL, Daqo, Xinte, Asia Silicon, and East Hope [3][4].

• Prohibited agreements on production capacity, capacity utilization, production/sales volume, and sales prices
• Prohibited market division, production allocation, and profit distribution through investment ratios
• Prohibited communication and coordination on information such as prices, costs, and production/sales volumes
• Required submission of written rectification measures by January 20

Market Product	Performance After the Interview	Date
Polysilicon Futures Main Contract	Hit limit down, with a 9% drop	January 8
GCL Technology (03800.HK)	Dropped from over 3% to 7%	January 8-9
Daqo New Energy (688303.SH)	Dropped 3.60%	January 9
Xinte Energy (01799.HK)	Dropped 3.10%	January 9
Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SS)	Dropped 2.77% then rebounded	January 9

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Based on the latest trading data [0], the performance of Tongwei Co., Ltd. at key policy nodes is as follows:

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│           Stock Price Trend Analysis of Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SS) │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Period High: $23.18 (Early December 2025)                  │
│ Period Low: $19.85 (Early January 2026)                    │
│ Current Price: $20.83 (January 10, 2026)                  │
│ Decline Since December 1: -10.14%                          │
│ Maximum Decline After Guanghe Qiancheng's Establishment on December 9: -11.15% │
│ Rebound After January 6 Interview: +1.51%                  │
│ 20-Day Moving Average: $21.20 | 50-Day Moving Average: $22.90 │
│ Average Daily Trading Volume: 67.13 Million Shares | Volatility: 2.18% │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Financial Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Market Capitalization	USD 91.66 Billion	Industry Leader
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	-11.00x	Loss-Making Status
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	2.10x	Relatively Reasonable
Return on Equity (ROE)	-18.28%	Under Pressure
Net Profit Margin	-9.44%	Loss-Making
Current Ratio	1.24	Acceptable Short-Term Solvency
Quick Ratio	0.99	Average Short-Term Solvency

: The company is still in a loss-making state, but the loss magnitude has narrowed significantly compared to previous periods. The latest financial report shows EPS of -$0.52, which is better than the market expectation of -$0.54 [0].

Tongwei Co., Ltd. is one of the core initiators of the “Guanghe Qiancheng” platform:

• Equity Structure
  : Tongwei and GCL’s subsidiaries hold a combined stake of over 47% [1]
• Capacity Scale
  : Tongwei is the world’s largest supplier of high-purity polysilicon
• Market Share
  : Tongwei and GCL together account for nearly 70% of the industry’s effective polysilicon capacity

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Impact Dimension	Analysis
Rational Price Recovery	Polysilicon prices rebounded from RMB 35,400/ton to over RMB 60,000/ton, significantly improving corporate profitability
Phase-Out of Backward Capacity	Policies promoted the exit of low-efficiency capacity, balancing industry supply and demand
Head Enterprises Benefit First	Cost-advantaged enterprises such as Tongwei and GCL were the first to turn profitable
Motivation for Technological Upgrade	High standards forced enterprises to increase R&D investment, with BC cell efficiency exceeding 24.8%

Risk Dimension	Analysis
Antitrust Compliance Risk	The interview incident highlights that joint production cuts and pricing may touch antitrust red lines
Suspension of Self-Discipline Initiatives	All monthly anti-internal competition regular meetings convened by the industry association have been canceled before rectification is completed
Price Volatility Risk	Polysilicon prices may come under renewed pressure after the suspension of production and price limit measures
Downstream Transmission Blockage	Excessive price increases in the upstream may squeeze profit margins of the midstream and downstream, triggering industrial chain conflicts

1. High Policy Sensitivity
   : As one of the largest shareholders of the “Guanghe Qiancheng” platform, the antitrust interview directly impacts the company’s strategic layout
2. Adjustment of Market Expectations
   : Investors need to re-evaluate the sustainability of the company’s profits from industry self-discipline
3. Increased Stock Price Volatility
   : The stock price volatility has reached 3.03% in the past 3 months, higher than the historical average

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According to the statement by Yang Xudong, Director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2], the governance of the photovoltaic industry will enter a

in 2026, with key work including:

• Strengthening capacity regulation and enhancing management of photovoltaic manufacturing projects
• Improving price monitoring mechanisms, with a focus on enterprises with abnormal prices
• Strengthening product quality supervision and random inspections
• Accelerating the release of mandatory national standards such as photovoltaic module quality and safety, and polysilicon energy consumption limits

Dimension	Expectation
Price Range	The industry expects RMB 50,000/ton as the ideal equilibrium price [4]
Capacity Phase-Out	Market-based and legal means will promote the orderly exit of backward capacity
Technological Iteration	New technologies such as BC cells and perovskite-silicon tandem cells will accelerate mass production
Demand Side	Innovative scenarios such as direct green power connection and zero-carbon parks are expected to open up new demand

Risk Level	Recommendation
Short-Term (1-3 Months)	⚠️ Cautiously Wait and See - The antitrust interview brings policy uncertainty, and stock price volatility may intensify
Mid-Term (3-6 Months)	🟡 Accumulate on Dips - The industry’s fundamental improvement trend remains unchanged, and leading enterprises have cost advantages
Long-Term (6-12 Months)	🟢 Focus on Allocation - After accelerated industry integration, enterprises with technological advantages and scale effects will prevail

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The anti-internal competition policies of the photovoltaic industry have had

on polysilicon enterprises such as Tongwei Co., Ltd.:

1. Positive Effects
   : Price recovery has significantly improved corporate profitability, leading enterprises were the first to turn profitable, and the industry has shifted from overall losses to structural profitability
2. Negative Risks
   : The antitrust interview exposed the compliance boundaries of industry self-discipline behaviors, and the operation of the “Guanghe Qiancheng” platform faces uncertainty, which may lead to the temporary suspension of production and price limit measures

: The general direction of anti-internal competition in the photovoltaic industry is highly certain, but the uncertainty of the specific path is increasing. As an industry leader, Tongwei Co., Ltd. has stronger risk resistance amid policy fluctuations, but investors need to closely track policy implementation details and the progress of antitrust investigations.

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[1] Sohu Finance - The First Shot of “Anti-Internal Competition” in Energy Storage

[2] Eastmoney - Photovoltaic “Anti-Internal Competition”: Entering a Critical Phase in 2026

[3] Wenxue City Finance Forum - Photovoltaic “Anti-Internal Competition”: Entering a Critical Phase in 2026

[4] Cailianpress - Anti-Internal Competition or Monopoly Suspicions: On the One-Month Anniversary of the Polysilicon “Storage Platform”

[0] Jinling AI Financial Data Terminal - Real-Time Market and Financial Data of Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SS)