Analysis of the Impact of Antitrust Investigations into Food Delivery Platforms on Meituan's Valuation System

Based on comprehensive data collection and analysis, the following is a systematic research report on the impact of antitrust investigations into food delivery platforms on Meituan’s valuation system:

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On January 9, 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement stating that the Office of the State Council Antitrust and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee, in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China, officially launched an investigation and assessment into the market competition situation in the food delivery platform service industry[1][2][3]. This is another major regulatory measure following two regulatory interviews in May and July 2025, and the release of the Basic Requirements for Food Delivery Platform Service Management in December 2025[1].

The core issues of the investigation include:

• Subsidy and price wars
  : Unregulated price wars between platforms squeeze merchants’ profit margins
• Traffic control
  : Platforms control traffic distribution through algorithms, forming unfair competition
• Squeezing the real economy
  : Intensifies “involutionary” competition in the industry, with strong public backlash[1][3]

The current Chinese food delivery market presents a tripartite competitive landscape:

Platform	Parent Company	Strategic Positioning
Meituan Delivery	Meituan (3690.HK)	Leader in local life services
Taobao Flash Buy	Alibaba (9618.HK)	Extension of instant retail ecosystem
JD Delivery	JD.com (JD.US)	Retail + delivery synergy

The three platforms engaged in a nearly six-month subsidy war exceeding RMB 10 billion in 2025, driving daily order volume to 250 million, but financial data reveals heavy profitability pressure[2].

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Based on the latest financial data[0], Meituan’s core local services business has seen a significant deterioration in financial metrics amid the dual pressures of subsidy wars and regulatory investigations:

Financial Indicator	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Change Magnitude
Core Local Services Revenue	RMB 69.3 billion	RMB 67.4 billion	-2.8%
Operating Profit	RMB 4.7 billion	-RMB 14.1 billion	Swung from profit to loss
Operating Loss Ratio	6.8%	20.9%	+14.1 percentage points
Food Delivery Order Volume	1.85 billion orders	2.23 billion orders	+20.5%
Average Order Value	RMB 32	RMB 28	-12.5%

Key Insights:

• Revenue decline
  : Despite a 20.5% growth in order volume, revenue fell by 2.8%, reflecting that the negative impact of declining average order value outweighed order volume growth
• Swung from profit to loss
  : Shifted from a profit of RMB 4.7 billion to a loss of RMB 14.1 billion, with a loss ratio of 20.9%
• Cost of price wars
  : Low-price strategies have severely eroded profit margins[1][2][3]

Company	Business Segment	Revenue Growth	Profitability Performance
Meituan	Core Local Services	-2.8%	Operating loss of RMB 14.1 billion
Alibaba	Instant Retail Business	+60%	Adjusted EBITDA down 78% YoY
JD.com	Delivery Business	Steady growth	Investment narrowed sequentially

The industry is generally trapped in the dilemma of “growing volume without growing profits”, which confirms the regulators’ judgment of “squeezing the real economy and intensifying involutionary competition”[2][3].

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Based on the DCF valuation model[0], Meituan’s current valuation shows a significant discount:

Valuation Scenario	Value per Share (HKD)	Premium/Discount Relative to Current Price
Conservative Scenario	398.05	+304.1%
Neutral Scenario	584.52	+493.4%
Optimistic Scenario	1,320.89	+1,241.0%
Current Market Price	98.50	-83%

: The market price is discounted by approximately 83% relative to intrinsic value, reflecting investors’ extremely pessimistic expectations regarding regulatory risks and profitability prospects[0].

Based on different regulatory policy intensities, the estimated valuation impacts are as follows:

Regulatory Scenario	Valuation Impact	EPS Impact	Reasonable PE Multiple
Status Quo (Light Regulation)	+5%	0%	18x→20x
Restrictions on Low-Price Competition	-15%	-12%	18x→15x
Mandatory Commission Caps	-35%	-28%	18x→12x
Mandatory Data Opening	-45%	-40%	18x→10x
Business Split	-60%	-55%	18x→8x

: If regulatory measures tighten, Meituan’s valuation faces a downside risk of 15%-60%; the current market has partially priced in pessimistic expectations.

1. Downward revision of profit expectations
   : Q3 operating loss of RMB 14.1 billion, with a loss ratio of 20.9%, far exceeding market expectations
2. Slowing growth
   : Core local services revenue declined YoY, and market share is being eroded
3. Regulatory uncertainty
   : Antitrust investigations may bring compliance costs and business model adjustments
4. Worsening competitive landscape
   : Subsidy wars continue to consume cash reserves

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Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
Current Price	HKD 98.50	Close to 52-week low (HKD 94.05)
52-Week Range	HKD 94.05 - 189.60	Down 48% from the high
1-Year Return	-29.69%	Significantly underperformed the market
5-Year Return	-68.18%	Long-term trend is weakening
Beta	0.30	Low volatility relative to Hong Kong stocks

: MACD bearish crossover, KDJ oversold, overall in a sideways consolidation pattern with no clear direction[0].

Impacts of Key Nodes:

• April 2025
  : JD.com launched its RMB 10 billion subsidy program, and the stock price began to come under pressure
• May/July 2025
  : After regulatory interviews, the stock price accelerated its decline
• December 2025
  : Basic Requirements for Food Delivery Platform Service Management came into effect, making policy risks explicit
• January 9, 2026
  : Antitrust investigation officially launched, triggering a concentrated release of panic sentiment

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:

• Commission revenue constrained: If mandatory commission caps are imposed, it will directly affect monetization rates
• Higher subsidy costs: Compliance requirements may increase costs such as rider rights protection
• Declining traffic monetization: Banning “traffic control” will weaken the platform’s pricing power

:

• Business innovation: Shift from price competition to service and efficiency competition
• Ecosystem synergy: High-value orders (over RMB 30, accounting for over 70%) become a new growth driver
• Category expansion: Non-food categories such as instant retail, fresh produce, and pharmaceuticals become strategic priorities[2][3]

Based on regulatory expectations, the core assumptions that need to be adjusted are as follows:

Financial Assumption	Before Adjustment	After Adjustment	Adjustment Range
Revenue Growth (CAGR)	31.0%	15-20%	-11 to 16 percentage points
EBITDA Margin	2.9%	1.5-2.0%	-0.9 to 1.4 percentage points
WACC	6.1%	7.5-8.5%	+1.4 to 2.4 percentage points
Terminal PE	18x	12-15x	-3 to 6x

• Valuation Range: HKD 120-150
• Catalyst: Clear implementation rules for the Basic Requirements, controllable compliance costs

• Valuation Range: HKD 80-110
• Risk: Commission price limits and business adjustments pressure profitability

• Valuation Range: HKD 160-200
• Catalyst: Positive investigation conclusions, stable competitive landscape

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:

1. Regulatory uncertainty remains high, as the outcome of the antitrust investigation is unclear
2. Profitability of core business has deteriorated, and a reversal is unlikely in the short term
3. Although valuation has fallen sharply from historical highs, it still lacks a margin of safety relative to earnings
4. Analyst consensus: 100% of institutions have given a “Sell” rating[0]

Risk Type	Specific Content	Impact Level
Regulatory Risk	Conclusions and penalties from the antitrust investigation	Extremely High
Competition Risk	Continuous subsidies from JD.com and Taobao Flash Buy to seize market share	High
Profitability Risk	Sustained losses in core local services business	High
Valuation Risk	Negative PE, uncertain timeline for profit recovery	Medium
Macroeconomic Risk	Consumption recovery falls short of expectations	Medium

• March 19, 2026
  : Release of Q4 financial report, focus on loss narrowing
• Antitrust investigation conclusion
  : Expected to be announced in H1 2026
• Policy implementation rules
  : Implementation effect of Basic Requirements for Food Delivery Platform Service Management
• Changes in competitive landscape
  : Sustainability of subsidy wars

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Antitrust investigations into food delivery platforms have had a

on Meituan’s valuation system:

1. Downward shift in valuation center
   : Regulatory uncertainty has led to an increase in risk premium, and the DCF valuation range has shifted from HKD 180 to HKD 80-150
2. Restructuring of profit model
   : Shift from “traffic monetization + subsidy-based customer acquisition” to “service value + efficiency competition”
3. Restructuring of competitive landscape
   : The industry bids farewell to reckless growth, benefiting platforms with operational efficiency advantages

: Panic sentiment triggered by the launch of the investigation will continue to pressure the stock price, testing the support of the 52-week low of HKD 94.05

: Valuation is expected to stabilize after the investigation conclusion becomes clear; if regulatory measures are moderate, there will be opportunities for valuation recovery

: The industry returns to a healthy development track, and platforms with technological and operational advantages will regain market recognition

Investors are advised to remain cautious and wait for full release of regulatory risks before deploying capital.

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[1] Jimu News - “Heavy Regulation Arrives for the Food Delivery Wars! Responses from All Parties” (https://www.ctdsb.net/c1476_202601/2635571.html)

[2] MoneyDJ - “Reject Futile Involution! Meituan, JD.com, Alibaba’s Delivery Businesses Suffer Billion-Yuan Losses as Chinese Authorities Launch Antitrust Investigation” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/拒絕無效內卷-美團-京東-阿里外送業務巨虧百億-中國官方-啟動反壟斷調查-032343815.html)

[3] Sina Finance - “‘Don’t Want to Fight, Can’t Stop’ Food Delivery Wars Face Heavy Regulation; What Will 2026 Be About?” (https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2026-01-09/doc-inhftipp0424278.shtml)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database (Company Profile, Financial Analysis, DCF Valuation, Technical Analysis Data)