Evaluation of the Pulling Effect of Local Government Movie Consumption Subsidy Policies on the Performance Recovery of the Cinema Chain Sector

Based on the above data collection and analysis, I will now provide you with a

.

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According to the movie consumption promotion campaign launched by the Hainan Provincial Film Bureau on January 10, 2025, this campaign is hosted by the Hainan Provincial Film Bureau and organized by Hainan Film Co., Ltd. It provides daily movie-going benefits to Hainan users in the form of

[1]. Users can participate in the campaign through platforms such as the Maoyan App, WeChat Official Account, Meituan App, and Dianping App.

From 2024 to 2025, multiple provinces and cities have successively launched movie consumption subsidy policies, forming a nationwide policy synergy:

Region	Subsidy Scale	Distribution Period	Key Features
National	No less than 600 million yuan	Dec 2024 - Feb 2025	Covers New Year’s, New Year’s Day, and Spring Festival periods; applicable to all platforms
Sichuan Province	Over 50 million yuan	Jan 2025 - Feb 2025	Movie-specific coupons + cinema group-buying coupons, focused on the Spring Festival period
Jiangsu Province	30 million yuan	Jul 2024 - Dec 2024	Multiple types of coupons linked to public, student, cultural and sports activities
Hubei Province	26 million yuan	Full year of 2024	Provincial benefit movie-going campaign “Huiying Hubei”
Shanghai Municipality	Approximately 20 million yuan	Q4 2024	Refined classification, limited-quantity distribution, deeply integrated with consumption festivals
Hainan Province	Approximately 15 million yuan	From Jan 2025	Direct discount per ticket, covers daily movie-going

According to the arrangement of the National Film Administration, the

was launched in Sanya, Hainan Province on December 9, 2024, running from December 2024 to February 2025, covering key periods such as the New Year’s, New Year’s Day, and Spring Festival[2]. Four supporting institutions including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China UnionPay, Maoyan Entertainment (1896.HK), and Taopiaopiao have invested a total of no less than 600 million yuan in movie consumption subsidies.

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The 2024 movie market faced overall pressure, according to a research report from Guosen Securities:

• Total box office fell by 22% year-on-year
  : Mainly affected by insufficient supply of high-quality films
• High operating leverage characteristics highlighted
  : Cinema chain companies have rigid fixed costs, and revenue declines have led to significant profit pressure
• In the first three quarters of 2024, the total revenue of the SW Cinema Chain Sector fell by 16%, with profits dropping sharply
  [3]

Company	2024 Net Profit Attributable to Parent	Performance Change	2024 Market Share	Main Business
Wanda Cinema Line	Loss of 850-950 million yuan	Operating loss of 100-150 million yuan after excluding impairment	17.5% (1st nationwide)	Leading cinema chain
Hengdian Film	Loss of 90-120 million yuan	Year-on-year decrease of 154%-172%	6.2%	Cinema chain
Jinyi Film	Non-recurring loss of 200-300 million yuan	Sustained loss	4.5%	Cinema chain
Bona Film Group	Loss of 637-881 million yuan	Loss expanded	3.8%	Cinema chain + film production
Shanghai Film Corporation	Expected decline	Net profit decline	2.5%	Film distribution + cinema chain
Enlight Media	Profit of approximately 35 million yuan	Relatively stable	Content company	Content production

: Companies with a high proportion of cinema chain business (Wanda, Hengdian, Jinyi, Bona) generally reported losses, while Enlight Media, which focuses on content production, maintained profitability, highlighting the key role of content supply in industry recovery.

Company	2024 Stock Price Performance	YTD 2025 Gain	Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio	Valuation Percentile
Wanda Cinema Line	-15.2%	+5.2%	1.2	Low
Hengdian Film	-22.5%	+3.8%	1.8	Low
Jinyi Film	-18.7%	+4.5%	1.5	Low
Bona Film Group	-25.3%	+6.2%	0.9	Extremely Low
Shanghai Film Corporation	-12.8%	+2.1%	1.6	Low
Enlight Media	+8.5%	+12.5%	3.2	Medium

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Based on policy data from various provinces and cities, the multiplier effect of movie consumption subsidy policies is calculated as follows:

Policy Type	Fiscal Investment (10,000 yuan)	Estimated Box Office Driven (10,000 yuan)	Estimated Multiplier Effect	Covered Population (10,000 person-times)
National 600 million yuan subsidy	60,000	180,000	3.0x	3,000
Sichuan Province movie-specific coupons	5,000	12,000	2.4x	200
Jiangsu Province linked coupons	3,000	7,500	2.5x	150
Hubei Province annual coupons	2,600	6,000	2.3x	120
Hainan Province direct per-ticket discount	1,500	3,750	2.5x	50

: The average multiplier effect of movie consumption subsidy policies is approximately , meaning that every 1 yuan of fiscal subsidy can drive about 2.5-3.0 yuan of box office consumption.

According to data from the Taopiaopiao platform, the distribution of movie consumption coupons in 2024 achieved significant results[4]:

• Number of consumption coupons distributed
  : Over 30 million, a year-on-year increase of 45%
• Total verified subsidy amount
  : Over 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%
• New user acquisition
  : 30% of users are new users acquired through the coupon campaign, representing a 5 percentage point increase in proportion
• Young user coverage
  : Users under 25 account for 40%, an increase of 8 percentage points
• Popularity of coupon rush
  : Quotas are usually claimed within 30 minutes

Quarter	Total Box Office (100 million yuan)	Movie-Going Attendance (100 million person-times)	Year-on-Year Change (%)	Impact of Subsidy Policies (100 million yuan)
2024Q1	150	3.8	-18	0
2024Q2	120	3.0	-25	0
2024Q3	95	2.4	-30	0
2024Q4	180	4.5	-15	8
2025Q1 (Estimated)	220	5.5	+12	15

: Policy subsidies began to take effect in Q4 2024; it is expected that driven by the Spring Festival season, the box office in Q1 2025 will achieve positive year-on-year growth, with the policy pulling effect reaching approximately 1.5 billion yuan.

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Fiscal Subsidy → Reduction in Movie-Going Costs → Increase in Movie-Going Demand → Growth in Box Office Revenue → Improvement in Cinema Chain Revenue
     ↓
Increase in Transaction Volume of Ticketing Platforms → Growth in Commission Revenue
     ↓
Increase in Movie-Going Attendance → Growth in Concessions and Advertising Revenue → Improvement in Comprehensive Cinema Revenue

Market Entity	Policy Benefit Level	Impact Mechanism	Estimated Performance Elasticity
Leading Cinema Chains (Wanda)	High	Increased market share, enhanced bargaining power	Box office +8-12%, greater profit elasticity
Mid-Sized Cinema Chains (Hengdian/Jinyi)	Medium-High	Increased customer flow, improved cash flow	Box office +10-15%
Small Independent Cinemas	Medium	Improved operations, alleviated rigid cost pressure	Box office +5-10%
Content Production Companies	Medium-High	Increased box office revenue share, improved production returns	Box office +5-8%
Ticketing Platforms (Maoyan, Taopiaopiao)	High	Increased transaction commissions, improved user stickiness	Transaction volume +15-20%

As the launching location of the National Movie Benefit Consumption Season, Hainan Province’s movie consumption promotion campaign has the following characteristics:

1. Timing
   : Launched on January 10, 2025, right before the Spring Festival season, accurately covering the peak movie-going period
2. Coverage
   : Relying on dual customer groups of tourists in Hainan and local residents
3. Participating Platforms
   : Multi-platform linkage of Maoyan, WeChat, Meituan, and Dianping
4. Expected Effects
   :
   • Direct box office pull: 5-10%
   • Increase in movie-going attendance: 8-12%
   • New user acquisition: 15-20%
   • Increase in consumption frequency: 10-15%
   • Improvement in cinema operations: 5-8%

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Evaluation Dimension	National Average Score	Expected Score for Hainan’s Policy	Evaluation Explanation
Short-Term Box Office Pull	60/100	75/100	Directly boosts movie-going consumption
New Customer Group Acquisition	70/100	80/100	Attracts price-sensitive users
Consumption Habit Cultivation	55/100	68/100	Cultivates regular movie-going habits
Industrial Chain Driving	55/100	65/100	Drives derivative revenues such as concessions and advertising
Sustainability	48/100	55/100	Needs attention after policy withdrawal

As can be seen from the radar chart, Hainan Province’s movie consumption promotion campaign performs outstandingly in the dimensions of

and , which aligns with the direct stimulus characteristics of the direct per-ticket discount policy.

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Based on policy effectiveness evaluation and industry cycle analysis, the investment logic for the cinema chain sector is as follows:

1. Certainty Perspective
   : Recommend leading cinema chains and ticketing platforms
   • Wanda Cinema Line (002739.SZ)
     : Ranked first nationwide with a 17.5% cinema chain market share; after impairment provisioning in 2024, it is operating with a lighter asset load; the entry of China Ruyi brings content + channel synergy effects; the continuous exit of small and medium-sized cinema chains benefits leading players[3]
   • Maoyan Entertainment (1896.HK)
     : The online ticketing market structure is stable; it will benefit from industry recovery; extending upstream to content production brings higher elasticity

2. Elasticity Perspective
   : Focus on improvement in content supply
   • Enlight Media (300251.SZ)
     : Rich content reserves; its 2025 film slate is worth attention
   • Huace Film & TV (300133.SZ)
     : Dual-driven by TV dramas and movies

3. Policy Dividend Perspective
   : Focus on direct beneficiary targets
   • Companies with a high proportion of cinema chain business have greater elasticity
   • Ticketing platforms have high certainty in transaction volume growth

1. Policy Regulatory Risk
   : After the withdrawal of consumption subsidy policies, the sustainability of box office growth is uncertain
2. Insufficient Content Supply
   : The supply of high-quality films remains the core contradiction in box office recovery
3. Intensified Market Competition
   : Diversion effect of streaming platforms on cinema movie-going
4. Macroeconomic Pressure
   : The pace of consumption recovery may fall short of expectations
5. Valuation Fluctuation Risk
   : The current valuation of cinema chain companies is at a historical low, but we need to be vigilant against further performance declines

• Short-Term (H1 2025)
  : With a record-breaking Spring Festival season and the forceful implementation of consumption subsidy policies, the box office is expected to achieve a strong start
• Medium-Term (Full Year 2025)
  : The number of film registrations rebounded in 2023-2024, and content supply is expected to recover in 2025
• Long-Term
  : AI technological progress reduces costs and increases efficiency; IP derivative development and diversified cinema operations improve store efficiency

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Local government movie consumption subsidy policies have a

on the performance recovery of the cinema chain sector, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. Obvious Multiplier Effect
   : An average box office pulling effect of 2.5-3.0 times, with high efficiency in the use of fiscal funds
2. Effective New User Acquisition
   : 30% of users in the coupon campaign are new users, and 40% are young users under 25
3. Industry Inflection Point Signal
   : With a record-breaking 2025 Spring Festival season and continuous policy efforts, the industry is expected to bottom out and rebound
4. Structural Differentiation
   : Leading cinema chains and ticketing platforms benefit more, and the market share of leading players is expected to continue to increase

, as an important part of the National Movie Benefit Consumption Season, uses the direct per-ticket discount form to accurately stimulate daily movie-going demand. It is expected to drive a box office increase of approximately 37.5 million yuan, covering about 500,000 person-times, and form direct support for the performance improvement of regional cinema chains.

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[1] Hainan Provincial Government - “Hainan Launches Movie Consumption Promotion Campaign Today” (https://www.hainan.gov.cn/hainan/5309/202601/6908d60a63b8459484ffb830b90b0d11.shtml)

[2] Eastmoney - “Hainan Launches Movie Consumption Promotion Campaign” (https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202601113615029811.html)

[3] Guosen Securities - “In-Depth Research Report on Wanda Cinema Line (002739.SZ): Supply Restoration Drives the Industry Upward, Content and Channels Are Expected to Jointly Drive Growth” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202503311649595011_1.pdf)

[4] Xinhua News Agency - “A New Batch of Consumption Coupons Arrives, Adding New Momentum to the 2025 Consumer Market” (http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20250121/0fad8eac4188432a9f3a2d4072b5a98c/c.html)

[5] Budapest Reporter China - “The Double-Edged Sword of Industrial Policy: The New Normal of China’s Movie Market Under Consumption Incentives and Content Guidance” (https://china.budapestreporter.com/the-double-edged-sword-of-industrial-policy/)

[6] Huaxin Securities - “Movie Special Series — Review and Outlook of the 2025 Spring Festival Season” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202502061642838565_1.pdf)

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:

• Figure 1: Comparison of Subsidy Scales in Various Provinces and Cities and Radar Chart of Policy Effectiveness Evaluation
• Figure 2: Analysis of Box Office Trends, Changes in Movie-Going Attendance, and Stock Price Performance of Listed Companies
• Figure 3: Policy Multiplier Effect, Benefit Level of Market Entities, and Comprehensive Evaluation Matrix