Systematic Analysis of Over 220 Billion Yuan Trading Volume Surge in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-Share Markets

Based on the latest market data and multi-source information, I present to you a systematic analysis report on the

:

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As of January 12, 2026, the A-share market has shown an

in history [1][2]:

Indicator	Value	Record Status
Single-Day Trading Volume Peak (2026-01-09)	3.12 trillion yuan	First time exceeding 3 trillion yuan in 2026
All-Time Single-Day High (2024-10-08)	3.48 trillion yuan	A-share historical record
Consecutive Trading Days with Volume Exceeding 1 Trillion Yuan	153 trading days	Longest record in A-share history
Consecutive Trading Days with Volume Exceeding 1.5 Trillion Yuan	116 trading days	Lasting approximately half a year

On January 5 (the first trading day of the new year), the trading volume of the two markets reached 2.55 trillion yuan,

; on January 9, it even exceeded 3.12 trillion yuan, a surge of over 220 billion yuan [3][4].

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• The current margin trading and short selling balance has reached
  2.6 trillion yuan
  , a new historical high
• Compared to the 2015 bull market peak (accounting for 4.5% of tradable market value), the current proportion is only 2.55%,
  leaving approximately 40% room for growth
• If the margin trading and short selling balance reaches 3% of tradable market value, the scale will expand to 3.1 trillion yuan; if it reaches 4%, it will hit 4.1 trillion yuan [5]

• Bank interest rates continue to decline: the one-year fixed deposit rate of some major state-owned banks has
  fallen below 1%
• In a low-interest rate environment, a large amount of deposit capital is seeking investment channels with higher returns
• Once demand deposits and one-year fixed deposits are converted into investments, they will bring
  huge incremental capital
  to the market [5]

• Insurance capital: as of the end of September 2025, the scale of insurance capital allocated to stocks and funds reached 5.59 trillion yuan,
  an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan
  compared to the beginning of the year
• Foreign capital continues to flow in: northbound capital has seen a net inflow of over 250 billion yuan year-to-date
• Six government departments promote the entry of medium- and long-term capital into the market, with 30% of new insurance premiums from insurance companies invested in A-shares, and public fund managers increasing their holdings of A-share tradable market value by
  no less than 10%
  annually [6]

:

• The total annual trading volume of A-shares in 2025 reached 410.17 trillion yuan, of which approximately
  32% (about 130 trillion yuan)
  was completed by algorithmic trading [1]
• On January 4, 2026, the single-day trading volume of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 800 billion yuan,
  showing obvious characteristics of high-frequency strategy operations
• Quantitative trading has become a key force driving up market trading volume

:

• Leading stocks have entered a normalized stage of
  10 billion yuan in single-day trading volume
  (e.g., China Satellite saw 19.4 billion yuan in single-day trading volume)
• Capital is gathering in core assets such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and military industry
• Capital is repeatedly traded on core assets, pushing up local liquidity premiums [7]

:

• H1 2025 GDP grew
  12.7% year-on-year
• Industrial enterprise profits grew
  66.9%
• The December 2025 manufacturing PMI returned to the
  50.1% expansion range
  [1]

:

• Policies for the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan are front-loaded, with 295 billion yuan in advance approvals for “Two Major” construction projects
• The RMB exchange rate has strengthened, with the onshore RMB exchange rate returning to
  below 6.98
• Expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in H1 2026 are rising [6]

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Dimension	Characteristics of Incremental Capital	Characteristics of Stock Capital Game
Margin Trading and Short Selling Balance	Continually hitting new highs (2.6 trillion yuan)	Net outflow of leveraged capital
Northbound Capital	Year-to-date net inflow of over 250 billion yuan	Sustained net outflow
ETF Subscription and Redemption	Continuous allocation by institutions	Sustained net redemption
Trading Volume Distribution	Volume surge in core assets	General rise and fall across all stocks

: The current market shows obvious characteristics of , but is accompanied by intensified [7].

Behind the 116 consecutive days of trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan is not an emotional pulse, but

[7]:

1. Changes in Participation Structure
   : Increased weight of northbound capital, margin trading and short selling, ETF subscription and redemption, and institutional position adjustments
2. Evolution of Trading Tools
   : Algorithmic trading and quantitative strategies have become the “infrastructure” of the market
3. Centralization of Asset Selection
   : Capital is gathering in core assets driven by industry trends, event catalysts, and institutional clustering

[7]

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Signal Type	Specific Performance	Expected Impact
Volume Bottleneck Breakthrough	Exceeded 3.12 trillion yuan, a new high in 2026	Indicates the market has opened up new volume space
16 Consecutive Gains for the Shanghai Composite Index	Stabilized above 4,100 points, the longest consecutive gain in 33 years	Strong bullish sentiment in the market
Strong Capital Absorption	High capital absorption intensity during volume surges	Relatively limited pullback range
Fundamental Improvement	PMI returned to expansion range, corporate earnings recovered	Supports a slow bull market pattern

:

• After 43 consecutive trading days of volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan from May to July 2015, a
  sharp pullback
  occurred due to fundamental deterioration [1]
• If there is no effective index breakthrough after a volume-driven rally, it may trigger
  technical pullback pressure

[6][8]:

1. Volatility Risk
   : A technical pullback or consolidation may occur in the short term
2. Overseas Uncertainties
   : Geopolitics, adjustments to Fed policies, etc., may impact market sentiment
3. Industry Differentiation Risk
   : Rapid capital flow between different sectors may lead to intensified differentiation

Institution	Summary of Views
China Merchants Securities	The spring rally is expected to continue, with trading focused on earnings announcements; focus on the main themes of technology and industrial metals
Huatai Securities	The index is “controlling the pace”, waiting for an opportunity to pull back to the 5-day moving average; small and medium-cap stocks continue to perform
Everbright Securities	The index has accumulated a large increase, may enter a consolidation phase, with structural market as the main feature
Dongguan Securities	Entering a necessary pullback and consolidation phase in the short term; is expected to continue to rise subsequently
China Securities Construction Investment	Favorable external environment drives the continuation of the cross-year rally; RMB appreciation provides support
TF Securities	H1 2026 may see a window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, enhancing expectations of loose liquidity

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(Institutional Consensus):

1. Technological Innovation
   : AI computing power, semiconductor equipment, brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace
2. Supply and Demand Improvement
   : Industrial metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing
3. Global Expansion
   : Leading enterprises in the export chain
4. Cyclical Recovery
   : Non-ferrous metals, chemical industry
5. RMB Appreciation
   : Assets benefiting from exchange rate flexibility

• Avoid Chasing Rises and Selling on Dips
  : Short-term volatility intensifies after volume surges; rationality is required
• Monitor Capital Flows
  : Focus on tracking sectors with consensus among leveraged capital, such as non-ferrous metals
• Balance Offense and Defense
  : Take into account both offensive (technology growth) and defensive (high dividend) assets
• Focus on Earnings Clues
  : The annual report preview period is approaching; directions with earnings exceeding expectations are worthy of attention

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:

1. Incremental capital inflow is the main trend, with intensified stock capital game
   : Margin trading and short selling, deposit shift, and increased institutional allocation form the three major sources of incremental capital; quantitative trading drives up turnover rate, and capital concentrates on core assets
2. The market has entered the “Era of New Volume Levels”
   : A daily average trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan may become the new normal, and trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan will open up new upside space
3. The spring market rally is expected to continue
   : Resonance between fundamental improvement, policy support, and foreign capital inflow will maintain the index’s upward trend
4. Volatility needs to be watched in the short term
   : A technical pullback may occur after a large accumulated increase, but the range will be relatively limited

: In 2026, the A-share market is expected to continue its . Against the backdrop of continuous recovery of corporate earnings, steady inflow of incremental capital, continuous release of policy dividends, and continued revaluation of Chinese assets, the market’s center of gravity will move upward with fluctuations [5][6][8].

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[1] Eastmoney - “A-Shares See 153 Consecutive Trading Days with Volume Exceeding 1 Trillion Yuan! Single-Day Trading Volume Hits 2.9 Trillion Yuan, Quantitative Capital Surges” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260107113820027055160)

[2] The Paper - “A-Shares Rise on Surge in Volume: Shanghai Composite Index Sees 16 Consecutive Gains, Stabilizes Above 4,100 Points, Trading Volume of Two Markets Exceeds 3 Trillion Yuan” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32350538)

[3] Securities Times - “Shanghai Composite Index Sees 12 Consecutive Gains! Where Will the Market Go Next?” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3572281.html)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “Shanghai Composite Index Sets Record with 13 Consecutive Gains; Industry Insiders: Evolving Towards a More Balanced Full Bull Market” (https://www.xincai.com/article/nhfmtvx4913941)

[5] The Paper - “A-Shares’ Trading Volume Exceeds 3 Trillion Yuan for the 6th Time; Where Is the Ceiling for A-Shares’ Trading Volume?” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32356913)

[6] Sina Finance - “A-Shares Expected to Continue Uptrend, Main Theme of Technology + Cyclical Bull Market in January Will Remain Unchanged” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/report/2026-01-11/doc-inhfxvtm9125030.shtml)

[7] Eastmoney - “A-Shares See 116 Consecutive Trading Days with Volume Exceeding 1.5 Trillion Yuan! Structural Changes Lie Behind the Phenomenon” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260106115940016762150)

[8] China.org.cn - “Outlook for Core Investment Opportunities in 2026: Earnings-Driven Slow Bull Market Pattern” (https://news.china.com/socialgd/10000169/20260106/49140315.html)"