In-depth Research Report on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges' Trading Volume Surpassing RMB 1.5 Trillion

Based on the above in-depth analysis, I now present a comprehensive research report:

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As of January 6, 2026, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges has

[1][2]. Such a long duration and high magnitude are rare in the history of A-shares. On December 26, 2025, the single-day trading volume even approached RMB 2.3 trillion, and on January 6, 2026, it exceeded RMB 1.5 trillion by 10:00 a.m., representing an increase of over RMB 140 billion compared to the same time period on the previous day[3].

From a data comparison perspective, the average daily trading volume of A-shares in 2025 reached RMB 1.73 trillion, a year-on-year increase of over 62%[4]. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed from its 2024 low of 2689.70 points to 4120.43 points in early 2026, representing a cumulative increase of over 46%[0]. This indicates that the current A-share market has transitioned from the stage of stock game to a new normal driven by incremental capital.

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is one of the core driving forces of this volume expansion rally. Data shows that the margin trading balance reached RMB 2.560648 trillion on January 5, 2026, rose to RMB 2.5799 trillion on January 6, and further exceeded RMB 2.604742 trillion on January 7, hitting a record high for three consecutive days[4][5]. In the first two trading days of 2026, the margin trading balance increased by over RMB 39.2 billion cumulatively, and the net inflow of financing capital in the first week of the year reached RMB 85.78 billion[5].

Compared with the 2015 leveraged bull market, the current margin trading capital exhibits the characteristics of

: the capital covers 27 of the 31 primary industries under Shenwan Classification, with the electronics industry ranking first with a net purchase of RMB 3.35 billion, followed by new productive force sectors such as non-ferrous metals and mechanical equipment[6]. At the individual stock level, 63 stocks received net financing purchases of over RMB 1 billion, showing a pattern of “blooming in multiple spots”.

ETFs have become one of the most important incremental capital sources in the A-share market. Since 2025, the scale of broad-based ETFs and industry-themed ETFs has expanded significantly, and the passive trading volume brought by continuous subscriptions and redemptions every day has become an important liquidity support for the market[1]. By the end of 2025, the net asset value scale of public funds reached RMB 36.32 trillion, an increase of 12.44% compared to the beginning of the year[4].

: Broad-based ETFs are mainly net redeemed, while industry ETFs continue to have net subscriptions. Non-ferrous metals have become the biggest consensus among financing capital and ETF capital[5]. Securities ETFs still received counter-trend allocations during market corrections, with intraday net subscriptions exceeding 330 million shares[4].

As the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike decision were successively implemented, overseas uncertainty disturbances subsided, the RMB exchange rate strengthened periodically, and the offshore RMB once “broke 7”[6]. This directly enhanced the attractiveness of RMB assets, and northbound capital has continued to flow back into A-shares since November 2025.

International investment banks such as Goldman Sachs clearly stated “overweight Chinese stocks”, predicting that the Chinese stock market will rise by 15% to 20% annually in 2026 and 2027[6]. JPMorgan predicts that the CSI 300 Index will reach a target of 5200 points by the end of 2026, while HSBC predicts that the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 4500 points[6].

The insurance industry’s “strong start” sales in 2026 exceeded expectations, bringing stable incremental capital to the market. As a representative of long-term capital, insurance capital carried out a new round of asset allocation at the beginning of the year, providing strong support for high-dividend and blue-chip sectors[5]. According to CICC’s calculation, RMB 32 trillion in residents’ long-term restricted deposits (with a term of 2 years or more) will mature in 2026, an increase of RMB 4 trillion year-on-year, providing sufficient “ammunition” for deposit migration[7].

is an important feature of this rally:

• CES 2026 focuses on AI infrastructure and physical AI, with continuous capital allocation in directions such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and automotive technology[5]
• Commercial aerospace has ushered in systematic policy deployment, with China Satellite’s single-day trading volume reaching RMB 19.4 billion[1]
• Storage chip prices have been pushed up by supply shortages, and the semiconductor industry chain remains active[5]

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[8]:

Securities Firm	Core View
CITIC Securities	The rotation pattern of thematic small-cap stocks may continue until around the Two Sessions
Huaxi Securities	The spring long window is expected to continue; focus on technology + cyclical sectors
CICC	A-shares are likely to outperform Hong Kong stocks; allocate along the direction of credit expansion
Galaxy Securities	The spring rally continues; focus on two main and two auxiliary themes
Cinda Securities	Trading capital is expected to recover and take over

:

• Volume Sustainability
  : The upward trend may continue until trading volume shrinks significantly
• Fundamental Verification
  : January enters the annual report performance forecast disclosure window; attention should be paid to performance support
• Policy Rhythm
  : Policy expectations for the first year of the “15th Five-Year Plan” are expected to be strengthened after the Spring Festival

The current increase in A-share prices is mainly driven by

[7]. Data shows:

• The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 4100 points on January 9, 2026[6]
• The 20-day moving average ($3954.48) and the 50-day moving average ($3942.92) formed a golden cross, with a bullish technical outlook
• However, the financing guarantee ratio increases with rising stock prices, so the risk of leverage loosening needs to be watched

:

• Regulators may conduct marginal tightening through margin trading regulation or window guidance (similar to the situations in July 2020 and early 2023)
• If volume cannot be sustained, the high point may evolve into a periodic top
• Volatility in overseas markets may hit risk appetite

The current market has shown characteristics of

[1]:

• Participation Structure: Institutionalization, ETFization, and quantitative assistance
• Trading Tools: Program trading and market-making behavior have become market infrastructure
• Asset Preference: Technology, high-end manufacturing, and military industries have become capital gathering places

As long as policies activate endogenous financing demand and there is no systemic shock in overseas markets,

.

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Sector	Driving Logic	Risk Warning
Electronics/Semiconductors	AI computing power demand + domestic substitution + full order books	Valuation is relatively high, and turnover rate is at a historical high
Non-ferrous Metals	Increased global pricing power + price increase expectations + new energy demand	High volatility, affected by commodity prices
Securities & Finance	Benefiting from expanded trading volume + valuation repair	Large short-term increase, facing correction pressure
Artificial Intelligence	CES catalysis + accelerated application implementation	Theme differentiation, need to select targets carefully

[8]:

• Main Theme 1
  : Technological innovation and growth sectors — artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, aerospace
• Main Theme 2
  : Anti-involution and price increase directions — non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, power equipment
• Auxiliary Theme 1
  : Consumer trade-in policy — cost-effective consumption, emotional consumption
• Auxiliary Theme 2
  : Enterprise globalization — high-booming export directions

[8]:

• Robotics (continuous net capital inflow, trend not yet over)
• Commercial aerospace (strong capital inflow, but trading crowding is at a historical high)
• Controllable nuclear fusion, sports services, non-ferrous metals (layout opportunities after correction)

1. Divergence between “stable index and falling individual stocks”
   : On December 26, 2025, more than 3,900 stocks fell intraday, with capital concentrated in a few hot themes
2. Frequent break of consecutive daily limits
   : Market divergence intensifies, with partial sentiment restlessness
3. Trading Crowding
   : Turnover rates of sectors such as commercial aerospace have reached extremely high levels

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1. The 116 consecutive trading days of trading volume exceeding RMB 1.5 trillion is a structural change
   , not driven by short-term sentiment, reflecting the systematic migration of market participation structure, trading tools, and capital preferences

2. Diversified sources of incremental capital
   : Margin trading (28%) + ETFs (22%) + northbound capital (18%) + insurance capital (17%) + individual investors (15%) form a joint force

3. The spring rally is highly likely to continue
   , but attention should be paid to fundamental verification and changes in policy rhythm

4. Sector rotation revolves around the dual themes of “technology + cyclical”
   , with electronics, non-ferrous metals, and securities firms being the most favored by capital

Strategy Type	Recommendation
Position Management	Maintain a neutral-to-bullish stance, but reserve space for adding positions on corrections
Sector Allocation	Use technology growth sectors as a foundation, appropriately increase allocation to cyclical stocks such as non-ferrous metals
Individual Stock Selection	Focus on leading stocks with top trading volume rankings; avoid chasing high in crowded trading varieties
Risk Control	Set stop-loss levels, pay attention to changes in margin trading balance and inflection points in market turnover rate

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[1] Eastmoney Wealth Account - “A-shares have exceeded RMB 1.5 trillion in trading volume for 116 consecutive days! Behind it is a structural upheaval” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260106115940016762150)

[2] Cailianshe - “Trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeds RMB 1.5 trillion, with an increase of over RMB 140 billion compared to the same time yesterday” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-06/doc-inhfiqwu6139768.shtml)

[3] Sina Finance - Report from Cailianshe (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-06/doc-inhfiqwu6139768.shtml)

[4] AASTOCKS - “Margin trading balance grows significantly at the start of 2026” (http://www.aastocks.com/sc/cnhk/news/china-hot-topic-content.aspx?id=YLC6101076N&catg=4)

[5] Sina Finance - “New changes in industry trends and changes in financing and ETF capital at the start of 2026” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/report/2026-01-11/doc-inhfxvtm9125030.shtml)

[6] National Business Daily - “A-shares stage a year-opening drama, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at key levels consecutively” (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-01-06/4209621.html)

[7] Investing.com - “CICC: A-shares are likely to outperform Hong Kong stocks in 2026, allocate along the direction of credit expansion” (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3160072)

[8] 21st Century Business Herald - “Has the A-share spring rally entered the main uptrend in the short term? What are the investment themes? Strategies from top 10 securities firms are here” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260111/herald/3ad1325b8922bd9c37a5a5cf9afb92f3.html)

[0] Jinling API Market Data - Historical price data of the Shanghai Composite Index (August 30, 2024 to January 9, 2026)