In-Depth Analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL) Investment Value: Solid Market Leadership but Systemic Overvaluation

According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments grew 2% year-over-year in 2025, with Apple maintaining a leading position with a 20% market share[1][2]. The following is a systematic analysis from three dimensions: market position, valuation rationality, and industrial chain investment value.

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Apple delivered outstanding performance in the 2025 smartphone market:

Brand	Market Share	YoY Shipment Growth
Apple	20%	+6.1%
Samsung	19%	+3.0%
Xiaomi	13%	+5.2%
Transsion	9%	+13.4%
vivo	8.6%	+3.4%

• Growth Driven by iPhone 17 Series
  : Apple’s 2025 shipments are expected to exceed 247 million units, a new all-time high[3]
• Turnaround in China Market
  : Market share exceeded 20% in October-November, shifting from an expected 1% decline to a 3% growth
• First-Time Surpass of Samsung
  : Expected to surpass Samsung in annual shipments for the first time in 14 years, with the leading position projected to continue through 2029[4]

• Ecosystem Barrier
  : The closed iOS ecosystem provides user stickiness and service monetization capabilities
• Brand Premium Capability
  : Gross margin of 43.3% and net profit margin of 26.92%, far exceeding the industry average
• Service Business Support
  : Service revenue accounted for 28.1% in Q4 FY2025, providing a stable high-margin revenue stream

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Metric	Value	Assessment
Current Stock Price	$259.37	-
Market Capitalization	$3.83 trillion	World’s Largest
P/E (TTM)	34.72x	High
P/B	52.58x	Extremely High
EPS (TTM)	$7.47	-

Intrinsic value analysis based on the DCF model shows that the current stock price significantly deviates from the reasonable range:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Premium/Discount vs Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$73.75	-71.6%
Base Scenario	$92.47	-64.3%
Optimistic Scenario	$138.05	-46.8%
Probability-Weighted	$101.42	-60.9%

Even under the most optimistic assumptions, the stock price is still overvalued by nearly 50%.

• Median Target Price
  : $312.50 (implying 20.5% upside potential)[0]
• Rating Distribution
  : Among 109 institutions, 68 gave Buy/Strong Buy (62.4%), 34 gave Hold, and 7 gave Sell[0]
• Rating Range
  : $220 - $350

: While most analysts maintain Buy ratings, the DCF valuation model shows that the market has already priced in Apple’s growth expectations excessively.

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• The global smartphone market demonstrates resilience, with 2% growth outperforming pessimistic expectations
• Strong demand in emerging markets, with economic recovery driving consumption upgrading
• Iteration of AI functions accelerates the replacement cycle

• Counterpoint expects the market to slow down in 2026, with chip shortages and rising component costs as key risks[1]
• The effect of manufacturers stocking up in advance to avoid tariffs has gradually faded

Dimension	Apple	Supply Chain Manufacturers
Valuation Support	Service business + brand premium provide a buffer	Highly dependent on shipments
Profit Pressure	Can pass costs to end customers	Absorbs cost pressures on its own
Growth Certainty	High	Low
Investment Rating	Neutral Bullish	Stock Picking

: Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International pointed out that supply chain manufacturers are under far greater pressure than Apple itself. In the short term, AI functions may not significantly drive shipments, posing substantial pressure on the supply chain[5].

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• TSMC (TSM)
  : Strong demand for AI chips, 2024 revenue of $90 billion, gross margin of 59%, annual Apple procurement reaches $24 billion[6]

• Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ)
  : Leading innovation in consumer electronic structural components, benefiting from the computing power interconnection trend[5]
• EVE Energy (300014.SZ)
  : Steel-shell battery technology positions it in Apple’s supply chain, benefiting from power consumption upgrades of edge AI devices[5]
• Foxconn (2317.TW)
  : Foundry leader, but faces capacity pressure from the spin-off of AI server business[7]

Time Horizon	Strategy	Key Catalysts
Short-Term	Wait-and-See / Range Trading	January 29 earnings guidance, $257-$271 consolidation range[0]
Medium-Term	Wait for Better Entry Point	AI function implementation, service business growth
Long-Term	Accumulate on Dips	Foldable phones (2026-2027), 20th anniversary product in 2027

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1. Valuation Risk
   : DCF shows approximately 60% premium, high correction risk
2. Competition Risk
   : Samsung and Huawei continue to catch up, fierce competition in the China market
3. Supply Chain Risk
   : Rising component costs, capacity diversion from AI server business
4. Macroeconomic Risk
   : Global economic uncertainty, exchange rate fluctuations
5. Technology Risk
   : AI function implementation progress, foldable screen R&D progress

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• Short-Term
  : Stock price consolidates sideways (in the $257-$271 range), technical indicators show no clear trend direction[0]
• Medium-Term
  : Wait for earnings to verify growth sustainability, monitor AI function implementation progress
• Long-Term
  : Innovation cycles (foldable phones, AI hardware) provide growth drivers, but patience is needed for valuation reversion

: The 2% shipment growth in 2025 proves that the consumer electronics market still has resilience, but supply chain players are under greater pressure than brand owners. It is recommended that investors select targets with technological innovation capabilities and diversified customer layouts, and avoid supply chain enterprises with high dependence on a single customer.

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[1] Investing.com - “Global smartphone shipments rise 2% in 2025, Apple leads market - Counterpoint” (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/global-smartphone-shipments-rise-2-in-2025-apple-leads-market--counterpoint-93CH-4440744)

[2] Reuters - “Apple leads global smartphone market with 20% share in 2025, says Counterpoint” (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/apple-leads-global-smartphone-market-with-20-share-in-2025-says-counterpoint-4440712)

[3] IDC - “Smartphone Market Share” (https://www.idc.com/promo/smartphone-market-share/)

[4] Accio - “global smartphone market share trend iphone vs samsung 2025” (https://www.accio.com/business/global-smartphone-market-share-trend-iphone-vs-samsung-2025)

[5] TMTPost - “Consumer Electronics in Flux: Reshaping Through Gameplay in 2026, New Era of Edge AI Begins” (https://www.tmtpost.com/7836429.html)

[6] SemiAnalysis - “Apple-TSMC: The Partnership That Built Modern Semiconductors” (https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/apple-tsmc-the-partnership-that-built)

[7] LinkedIn - “Apple Stock Drops After Foxconn Reports Record Earnings” (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/apple-stock-drops-after-foxconn-reports-record-earnings-kumar-l-dtcmc)

[0] Gilin API Real-Time Data and Financial Analysis