Analysis of Hongxun Technology (603015)’s Four Consecutive Limit-Up Days: Risks and Opportunities Behind Concept-Driven Rally

Hongxun Technology (603015) achieved four consecutive limit-up days from January 7 to 12, 2026. Its share price surged from the closing price of approximately RMB 12.72 on January 5 to RMB 18.82, representing a cumulative increase of 34.51%[1][4]. This rally is mainly driven by three factors: the soaring hype around the nuclear fusion concept, favorable policies of eight ministries and commissions on ‘AI + Manufacturing’, and the superposition of multiple hot concepts. However, the company has clearly warned of several major risks, including a 35.18% year-on-year decrease in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, a trailing P/E ratio as high as 148.98 times (far exceeding the industry average of 24.55 times), and that its nuclear fusion business accounts for a small proportion of revenue and contributes little to actual performance[4]. This is a typical case of concept-driven theme speculation. Investors should distinguish between concept expectations and actual performance, and be wary of the risks of chasing the stock at high levels.

At the start of 2026, the controllable nuclear fusion concept has become one of the most attractive investment themes in the A-share market. EEI (EQUIPAGGIAMENTI ELETTRONICI INDUSTRIALI S.P.A.), the Italian subsidiary of Hongxun Technology, can provide components for nuclear fusion devices. This business layout has led the market to classify the company as a ‘nuclear fusion concept stock’[3]. The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference to be held in Hefei, Anhui from January 16 to 17 has further raised market expectations for this field, attracting a large amount of capital to related targets[1].

Hongxun Technology’s business layout exactly fits multiple high-boom tracks in the current market. The company’s main business covers three sectors: industrial automation (intelligent manufacturing), industrial internet (digitalization and software), and new energy, superimposing multiple hot concepts such as AI + Manufacturing, industrial internet, wind power, robotics, MCU chips, and virtual power plants[2]. This feature of multi-concept superposition makes the stock more likely to gain capital favor during periods of market euphoria, forming a concept resonance effect.

The “Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of ‘AI + Manufacturing’” jointly issued by eight ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology provides policy endorsement for Hongxun Technology. The document clearly proposes to promote the iteration of intelligent equipment and accelerate the empowerment of industrial robots by artificial intelligence, which highly aligns with the company’s intelligent equipment and industrial robot business, stimulating the market’s imagination about the company’s medium- and long-term development potential[1].

In terms of price performance, Hongxun Technology’s limit-up process shows a typical accelerated upward trend. On January 7, the turnover of the first limit-up day was RMB 286 million, with a turnover rate of 5.11%; in the following days, the turnover continued to expand, reaching RMB 1.413 billion on January 12, indicating that enthusiasm for capital participation continued to rise[1][4]. Notably, the turnover rate on January 9 was as high as 13.88%, indicating obvious chip turnover, but the stock price still managed to stay at the limit-up level, showing strong absorbing capacity.

Data from the Dragon and Tiger List reveals subtle changes in capital structure. Taking the data on January 7 as an example, northbound funds had a net purchase of RMB 7.0127 million, main funds had a net inflow of RMB 11.8053 million, while retail funds had a net outflow of RMB 12.6447 million[5]. This capital structure shows the characteristic of ‘main funds + hot money entering, retail investors fleeing’. Main funds may avoid monitoring through scattered orders. The process of chip transfer from retail investors to institutions provides a more stable holding basis for the stock price rise, but it also means that once main funds cash out, the stock price may face greater pullback pressure.

There is a significant divergence between Hongxun Technology’s current fundamental situation and its stock price increase. The company achieved a net profit of RMB 32.0491 million in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 35.18%, reflecting pressure on the profitability of its main business[4]. From a valuation perspective, the trailing P/E ratio of 148.98 times is not only far higher than the average of 24.55 times for the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, but also significantly deviates from the company’s historical valuation center. The high valuation is based on expectations of high growth in the future nuclear fusion business and AI + Manufacturing business, but such expectations are difficult to be verified by performance in the short term.

The company has continuously released risk warning announcements, clearly stating that its Italian subsidiary EEI only provides components rather than complete sets of equipment for nuclear fusion devices, and that this business accounts for a small proportion of the company’s main business revenue and has limited impact on the company’s short-term performance[3][4]. In addition, the company is not involved in humanoid robot business, and the share reduction plan of the controlling shareholder’s concerted action party, Ningbo Bangbangmang Trading Co., Ltd., has not yet been completed. These factors all constitute potential stock price suppression factors[4].

Hongxun Technology’s four consecutive limit-up days are essentially a typical case of theme speculation in the A-share market. In the current market environment, nuclear fusion, as a cutting-edge technology field oriented towards the future, has strong story-telling potential and imagination space, which easily attracts concentrated speculation by short-term speculative capital. However, investors must clearly realize that there is a long transformation cycle from laboratory technology to commercial application, and the actual contribution of the nuclear fusion business to the company’s performance in the short term is almost negligible. When market sentiment cools down or a more popular theme emerges, such concept stocks often face the risk of valuation regression, i.e., ‘returning to where they came from’.

From the analysis of capital flow, it can be seen that main capital has adopted a relatively hidden operation mode. It avoids exchange monitoring through scattered buying, order-splitting transactions, etc., accumulates chips at low prices when retail investors sell, and initiates a pull-up after gradually completing chip collection. This trading mode is relatively common in concept stock speculation, but it also means that ordinary investors have difficulty accurately judging the true intentions and holding costs of main capital. When the stock price increase accumulates to a certain extent, main capital may choose to take profits at any time, and then investors who chase the high will face greater losses.

It is particularly worth pointing out that the valuation risk currently faced by Hongxun Technology is mainly a structural risk, that is, the pullback pressure caused by individual stock pricing deviating from fundamentals, rather than a systematic risk. The current market liquidity is relatively abundant, and the hype around the nuclear fusion concept is still in an upward cycle. The stock price may continue to rise driven by capital in the short term. However, investors should be clear that this rise lacks fundamental support and is a typical game of musical chairs. If the timing of taking over is inappropriate, they may suffer greater losses.

Risk Category	Specific Description	Risk Level
Trading Risk	Cumulative increase of 34.51% in four trading days, excessive short-term increase leads to strong pullback demand	🔴High
Performance Risk	35.18% year-on-year decline in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, weak fundamental support	🔴High
Valuation Risk	P/E ratio of 148.98 times vs industry average of 24.55 times, obvious valuation bubble	🔴High
Concept Risk	Nuclear fusion business accounts for a small proportion of revenue, contributes little to actual performance, risk of expectation failure	🟠Medium
Share Reduction Risk	Share reduction plan of controlling shareholder’s concerted action party not yet completed, may form continuous pressure on stock price	🟠Medium

: If the Nuclear Fusion Industry Conference releases better-than-expected favorable news, it cannot be ruled out that the stock price will rise by inertia. Around the conference held from January 16 to 17, concept stocks may usher in the last wave of speculation window.

: After the concept hype fades and the stock price pulls back to a reasonable valuation range, investors can pay attention to the long-term development potential of the company’s industrial automation and industrial internet businesses. If the core business can stabilize and recover, combined with the gradual implementation of the AI + Manufacturing policy, it still has certain allocation value in the medium and long term.

: The above opportunity analysis is based on comprehensive information and does not constitute investment advice. Given that the current valuation level has significantly deviated from fundamentals, investors should prioritize risk control and avoid misjudging short-term concept speculation as a long-term investment opportunity.

The core driving force behind Hongxun Technology’s four consecutive limit-up days is the soaring hype around the nuclear fusion concept and speculation by main capital, rather than the improvement of the company’s fundamentals. The company has clearly warned of the risk of abnormal trading fluctuations. Its performance in the first three quarters of 2025 fell by 35.18%, and the current P/E ratio is significantly high at 148.98 times. The nuclear fusion business contributes little to actual performance in the short term. Investors should distinguish between concept expectations and actual performance, and maintain a rational investment mindset. The short-term stock price trend depends on the concept hype and the absorbing capacity of main capital. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual degree of favorable news fulfillment from the Nuclear Fusion Industry Conference. For existing investors, it is recommended to closely monitor changes in trading volume and main capital flow, and set a reasonable stop-loss level; for waiting investors, the risk of chasing the current price is high, and it is advisable to wait for the concept hype to cool down and the stock price to pull back before re-evaluating.

— Information Sources —

[0] Jinling Analysis Database

[1] NetEase Finance - Capital Code Behind Three Consecutive Limit-Up Days: Revealing the Main Capital Trading Logic of Hongxun Technology

[2] Sina Finance - Analysis of Hongxun Technology’s Limit-Up on January 12, 2026

[3] Securities Times - Hongxun Technology with Two Consecutive Limit-Up Days: Italian Subsidiary EEI Only Provides Components for Nuclear Fusion Devices

[4] China Finance Network - Risk Warning Announcement on Hongxun Technology’s Stock Trading

[5] Sina Finance - Dragon and Tiger List: Hongxun Technology Hits Limit-Up, Northbound Funds Net Purchase RMB 7.0127 Million