In-Depth Analysis of the Skyrocketing Memory Chip Prices and the Memory Super Cycle

Based on the latest market data and industry trends, I will provide you with an in-depth analysis of the sustainability of the skyrocketing memory chip prices and the cyclical prospects of the memory industry.

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The global memory market is currently experiencing the ‘strongest ever’ price hike cycle. According to data from TrendForce, since September 2025, the spot price of DDR5 memory chips has skyrocketed by

, and the increase of DDR4 has also reached [1][2]. In the end market, the unit price of 256GB DDR5 server memory modules has exceeded , and some high-end products even approach RMB 50,000-60,000[1][3]. Calculated based on a box of 100 modules, the value is nearly RMB 5 million, which is comparable to the value of some properties in Shanghai[1].

From a time perspective, data from PCPartPicker shows that the prices of DDR4 and DDR5 memory have increased

within the year[2]. Industry insiders admit that ‘memory prices change almost daily’, and the pace of price increases not only did not slow down at the beginning of 2026, but accelerated further[2][3].

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The fundamental driving force of this round of price hike cycle comes from the explosive growth of demand for AI computing power. According to analysis by market research institutions, the memory demand of ordinary servers is about 64-128GB, while due to the need to carry large model training and inference, the single-server memory demand of AI servers has soared directly to

, which is that of traditional servers[4][5].

AI large model training, data center expansion, and the popularization of intelligent driving all put forward higher requirements for memory bandwidth and capacity. Taking HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) as an example, its demand increased by more than

year-on-year in 2025[1]. The storage usage of AI servers is several times that of ordinary servers, directly driving a surge in demand for high-performance storage such as HBM, DDR5, and enterprise-level SSDs[6].

According to the research report of Sinolink Securities, the top four North American cloud service providers (CSPs) including Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon AWS continue to expand their investment in AI infrastructure, and the total investment in 2026 is expected to reach a record high of

[5]. More than 30% of the investment will be allocated to storage hardware, which provides solid demand support for the memory chip market.

Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron Technology, clearly stated on the earnings call: ‘The growth of artificial intelligence data center capacity is significantly driving the demand for high-performance, high-capacity memory and storage. The demand for server units has increased significantly.’[7]

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The global memory market has long been monopolized by three companies: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which together account for more than

of the market share[8]. To seize the higher-margin HBM market, these international giants have adjusted their production capacity structures one after another:

• Samsung
  : Has raised the contract price of mobile DRAM by 15%-30% and NAND Flash by 5%-10%, and plans to shift about half of its general-purpose DRAM production capacity to the latest 10nm-class 6th generation 1c DRAM products[2][9]
• SK Hynix
  : The M15X factory will start mass production in February 2026 ahead of schedule, focusing on 1b DRAM wafers, the core component of HBM4[7]
• Micron
  : Has decided to exit the consumer market and concentrate all resources on the data center business segment[9]

This strategic tilt of production capacity to high-end products (HBM, DDR5) has directly led to a significant compression of the supply of mature process products such as traditional DDR4, resulting in a structural shortage[1][9].

Facing the tight supply and demand situation, the three major memory manufacturers have a rather ‘ambiguous’ attitude towards capacity expansion. At the investor relations conference hosted by Morgan Stanley, Samsung clearly stated that it will not quickly expand production facilities, but will balance customer demand and market prices by optimizing capital expenditure strategies to reduce the risk of oversupply[9].

Industry insiders analyzed: ‘Samsung, SK Hynix and others are relatively cautious about capacity expansion. On the one hand, they are ‘scared of falling’ due to the previous downward cycle. On the other hand, capacity expansion may be risky. If the AI narrative is proven false and demand declines, the overcapacity caused by expansion will plunge them into losses again.’[9]

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According to TrendForce’s forecast,

, while , so the supply-demand gap will persist[5][9]. It is expected that the average unit price of DRAM will increase by year-on-year in 2026[9].

Specific price trend forecast:

• Q1 2026: DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by more than
  15%
  again[2]
• After Q2 2026: The growth rate will gradually converge
• The upward trend is expected to continue until the
  second half of 2026
  [2]

UBS predicts that DDR contract prices are expected to increase by

, NAND will rise by , and DDR contract prices will rise further by [9].

Morgan Stanley’s research report points out that the supply-demand imbalance in the memory industry has intensified driven by AI, and it is expected to start a ‘super cycle’ that will last for several years. By 2027, the global memory market size is expected to approach

[8][9].

Ding Bingzhong, partner of Shanghai Jimao Asset Management Co., Ltd., analyzed: ‘With the outbreak of AI computing power, international leading memory chip manufacturers are tilting towards high-end production capacity such as HBM, combined with factors such as deep destocking in the past two years, which have jointly driven the structural shortage. At present, the tight supply and demand situation is expected to last until

.’[5]

Executives of SK Hynix stated on the earnings call that the company’s HBM products have been sold out since 2023, and it is expected that by 2027, despite the company’s efforts to increase production, HBM supply will still fall short of demand[7].

However, the price hike cycle will not continue linearly. Li Sen, an executive of a listed memory industry company in Shenzhen, pointed out: ‘At present, the cost pressure of terminal products such as computers and mobile phones has increased significantly due to memory price hikes. Lenovo and Dell have started to raise prices, which will suppress consumer demand, reverse adjust the market, and cause prices to fall.’[9]

Memory costs account for

of the total cost of smartphones. If price hikes continue, the profit margin of mid-to-low-end models will be compressed, and manufacturers may be forced to reduce configurations or raise prices, which will ultimately affect consumer purchasing power[1]. TrendForce has adjusted its 2026 global smartphone and laptop shipment forecasts from a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and 1.7% to a year-on-year decrease of respectively[1].

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The ‘butterfly effect’ of memory price hikes has spread to downstream terminals:

• Automotive Industry
  : William Li Bin, founder of NIO, admitted that the biggest cost pressure in 2026 comes from memory price hikes. The dependence of intelligent driving systems on memory has caused automakers to ‘compete for resources’ with the AI industry[1]
• Mobile Phone Industry
  : Lu Weibing, President of Xiaomi Group, revealed that Xiaomi has signed a full-year 2026 agreement with suppliers to lock in supply. The increase in memory costs has driven the starting price of the Xiaomi 17 Ultra to be RMB 500 higher than the previous generation[1]

The global memory chip market pattern is gradually evolving from ‘triopoly’ to ‘multi-polar competition’, and domestic manufacturers are embracing historic opportunities:

Company	Technological Progress	Production Capacity/Market Share
ChangXin Memory Technologies	DDR5 yield rate exceeds 85%, speed reaches 8000Mbps; LPDDR5X breaks through 10667Mbps	Monthly production capacity of 300,000 wafers by the end of 2025, global DRAM market share is expected to reach 8%[10][11]
Yangtze Memory Technologies	Yield rate of 232-layer 3D NAND exceeds 90%	Domestic NAND market share of 15%[10]

ChangXin Memory Technologies’ IPO application on the STAR Market has been accepted, and it plans to raise

for technology upgrading and capacity expansion[4][8]. The proportion of domestic equipment purchased by memory wafer factories has exceeded , doubling from 18% in 2023[8][11].

Benefiting from the price hike wave, the performance of the three leading memory companies has hit record highs:

Company	Q3 2025 Performance	Year-on-Year Growth	Annual Stock Price Increase
Samsung Electronics	Operating profit of KRW 12.16 trillion (USD 8.56 billion)	+32.2%	—
SK Hynix	Operating profit of KRW 11.38 trillion	+62%	Over 300% in the past year[7]
Micron Technology	Net profit of USD 5.24 billion	+180%	238% in the past year[7]

The market predicts that Samsung Electronics’ operating profit in 2026 will reach

, and SK Hynix’s will reach [7].

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1. Strong Sustainability of Price Hikes
   : This round of memory price hikes is not short-term speculation, but a structural supply-demand imbalance driven by explosive demand for AI computing power. The tight supply and demand situation is expected to last until
   2027-2028
   , and DRAM prices will remain high throughout 2026.

2. Super Cycle Confirmed to Have Started
   : Since 2000, the global memory market has experienced multiple cycles, with each complete cycle lasting about 3-5 years. The AI-driven demand increment has completely exceeded expectations, and this round of cycle is expected to become a
   ‘super cycle’
   . Nomura predicts that the global memory market size will soar to
   USD 445 billion
   in 2026[8].

3. Intensified Structural Differentiation
   : High-end products such as HBM and DDR5 will continue to be in short supply, while mature process products such as DDR4 also face supply shortages due to compressed production capacity. The price increase of LPDDR5 in 2026 is also expected to be substantial[9].

4. Window for Domestic Substitution Opened
   : Domestic manufacturers such as ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies are accelerating their breakthroughs. In 2025, China’s overall share in the global DRAM market is expected to
   double year-on-year
   to reach 10%[4].

• The overall price-to-earnings ratio of the memory chip sector has exceeded 150 times, and some popular targets even reach 200-300 times, so valuations have fully reflected optimistic expectations[8]
• If the subsequent price hike falls short of expectations, or overseas giants resume production capacity of ordinary memory, the sector may experience a sharp correction
• Risk of reverse adjustment due to suppressed consumer demand

: The outbreak of demand for AI computing power has indeed injected strong growth momentum into the memory industry, and this round of super cycle has strong fundamental support. However, investors need to be alert to the risk of valuation bubbles and pay attention to changes in the supply-demand pattern and the affordability of terminal demand.

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[1] YCWB.com - ‘A Single Memory Chip Module Exceeds RMB 40,000: AI Computing Power Triggers a Global ‘Memory Shortage’’ (https://news.ycwb.com/ikimvkjtjk/content_53901063.htm)

[2] Time Weekly - ‘‘Prices Change Daily!’ Memory Chips Enter the ‘Strongest Ever’ Price Hike Cycle’ (https://qidian.sxtvs.com/timing/share/content/10695904)

[3] Investing.com - ‘A Box of Memory Chips is Worth a House in Shanghai? Memory Price Hikes Are Fierce’ (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3150710)

[4] EET China - ‘2025 Memory Chip Market Summary and Outlook’ (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a463770.html)

[5] Securities Daily - ‘AI Computing Power Wave Drives Volume and Price Growth in the Memory Market’ (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601093613226794.html)

[6] Dongfang Fortune Securities Research Report - ‘2026 Electronic Industry Strategy: Tapping into the AI Innovation Cycle’ (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202512171802307018_1.pdf)

[7] Futu News - ‘Samsung’s Chip Profits Are Staggering; Memory Giants: They’ve Won Big’ (https://news.futunn.com/post/67090504)

[8] Sina.com - ‘Investment Insights ∣ Up 18 Times in a Year! Why is the ‘Super Cycle’ of Memory Chips So Crazy?’ (http://k.sina.com.cn/article_5953190046_162d6789e06702j1yq.html)

[9] Securities Times - ‘Will It Stay Hot Until the End of 2026? AI Demand Triggers the Strongest Price Hike Cycle in Memory History’ (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3547725.html)

[10] Sina Finance - ‘When Memory Costs Account for Over 20% of Total Smartphone Costs, Can Domestic Chips Be the Key to Breaking the Deadlock?’ (https://news.sina.cn/bignews/insight/2026-01-10/detail-inhfvnnm4767950.d.html)

[11] Zhitong Finance - ‘Caida Securities: AI Wave Drives Volume and Price Growth in Memory, Domestic Equipment Embraces Golden Substitution Opportunities’ (https://9fzt.com/9fztgw_1_top/e66ad67f51509db9e692175966651905.html)