In-Depth Analysis Report on the Impact of Automotive-Grade Certification Subsidy Policies on the Competitive Landscape and Valuation of Domestic Automotive Chip Enterprises

Based on the above in-depth analysis, I will provide you with a systematic research report on the impact of automotive-grade certification subsidy policies on the competitive landscape and valuation of domestic automotive chip enterprises.

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The draft for comments of “Several Policies of Guangzhou on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry Throughout the Chain During the 15th Five-Year Period” issued by the Guangzhou Bureau of Industry and Information Technology is a policy innovation by a local government to provide special subsidies for the automotive-grade certification link for the first time [1]. This policy precisely focuses on the weak link of the domestic automotive chip industry — automotive-grade certification, aiming to promote the development of the domestic automotive chip industry and enhance the independent controllability of automotive-grade chips [1].

Automotive-grade certification is the core threshold for domestic chips to enter the automotive supply chain, covering AEC-Q series testing standards (automotive-grade product testing), AQG series standards (automotive-grade power module reliability testing), IATF16949 standard (automotive quality management system), and ISO26262 standard (road vehicle functional safety) [1]. These certifications are not only essential conditions for products to be deployed in vehicles, but also important basis for downstream automakers and Tier 1 suppliers to adopt domestic chips [1].

Subsidy Dimension	Details
Subsidy Ratio	No more than 30% of the actual certification expenditure
Subsidy Cap	Maximum of RMB 2 million per enterprise annually
Applicable Period	15th Five-Year Period (2026-2030)
Covered Certifications	AEC-Q100/101/200, ISO26262, IATF16949, AQG Series

From the perspective of subsidy structure, the cost of a single certification is approximately RMB 0.6-1.2 million, and the total cost for an enterprise to complete a full set of certifications (4-5 items) is approximately RMB 4-5 million. The 30% subsidy can save enterprises approximately RMB 1.2-1.5 million in certification expenses [2]. Considering that the automotive-grade certification cycle is usually 12-24 months, the subsidy policy will significantly reduce the cash flow pressure and financial risks of enterprises.

The current domestic automotive chip market presents a competitive landscape of “international giants leading, domestic players catching up rapidly”. In the intelligent driving chip field, NVIDIA ranks first with a 39.8% market share, Tesla FSD accounts for 25.1% with self-developed chips, Huawei Ascend series accounts for 9.5%, and domestic enterprises such as Horizon Robotics account for approximately 8-10% in total [3].

Supplier	2024	2025E	2026E	Competitive Advantages	Competitive Disadvantages
NVIDIA	39.8%	36%	33%	Leading computing power/ecosystem	High cost/black box
Tesla	25.1%	26%	26%	Vertical integration/data closed-loop	For self-use only
Huawei	9.5%	12%	14%	Huawei ecosystem/localization	Relatively high cost
Horizon Robotics	6%	10%	13%	Cost-effectiveness/localization	Ecosystem to be improved
Black Sesame Intelligence, etc.	2%	6%	10%	High computing power/domestic replacement	Insufficient mass production experience

Automotive-grade certification costs account for approximately 15-25% of total product R&D costs, and the 30% subsidy can directly reduce R&D costs by 4.5-7.5 percentage points [2]. This policy dividend is particularly important for small and medium-sized enterprises, as it can significantly reduce the capital barrier for them to enter the automotive-grade market.

The policy enhances the trust of downstream automakers in domestic chips, and the certification cycle is expected to be shortened by 3-6 months. It is expected that the penetration rate of domestic intelligent driving chips will increase from 15% in 2024 to 25-30% in 2026 [3].

The gross margin of chip enterprises is expected to increase by 2-3 percentage points, and the industrial chain discourse power will shift from international giants to domestic enterprises. The competitiveness of vertical integration models (such as BYD Semiconductor) will be further highlighted [4].

Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta region will form an automotive-grade chip industrial cluster, with enhanced collaborative effects among design, manufacturing, and packaging/testing. The improvement of regional competitiveness will attract more capital and enterprises to settle in.

The accelerated domestic replacement will compress the market share of international giants, and NVIDIA, Qualcomm, etc. may be forced to cut prices or provide value-added services, which is overall conducive to reducing the procurement costs of automakers [5].

Tier	Enterprise Type	Typical Enterprises	Expected Annual Cost Savings	Policy Sensitivity
Tier 1	Intelligent Driving SoC Design Enterprises	Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence	RMB 1.5-2 million	>85%
Tier 1	Lidar Enterprises	RoboSense, Hesai Technology	RMB 1.2-1.8 million	>90%
Tier 1	SiC Power Device Enterprises	Zhanxin Electronics, Paieng Semiconductor	RMB 1.3-1.8 million	>80%
Tier 2	Automotive-Grade Sensor Enterprises	Huayi Technology, Ruizhu Technology	RMB 0.6-1 million	70-80%
Tier 2	Analog Chip Enterprises	Nasemi, Richtek	RMB 0.5-0.9 million	65-75%
Tier 3	Packaging and Testing Enterprises	TFME, JCET	RMB 0.7-1.2 million	50-65%

The impact of the policy on valuation follows the transmission path of “cost reduction → profit improvement → valuation increase”:

Policy Release → Certification Cost Reduction → Gross Margin Improvement → Net Profit Growth → PE Valuation Increase
              │
              └──→ Certification Cycle Shortening → Mass Production Acceleration → Revenue Recognition in Advance → PS Valuation Increase

Enterprise	Current Valuation (RMB 100 million)	Current PS	Gross Margin Improvement	PS Upside	Valuation Increase Range
Horizon Robotics	560-700	15-20x	+2-3%	+5-10%	+5-10%
Black Sesame Intelligence	50-60	8-10x	+2-3%	+5-8%	+10-15%
RoboSense	160-200	12-15x	+2-4%	+5-10%	+8-12%
Hesai Technology	130-150	15-18x	+2-3%	+5-8%	+8-10%
San’an Optoelectronics	800 (Market Cap)	6-8x	+1-2%	+2-4%	+3-5%

Enterprises that complete a full set of automotive-grade certifications can obtain a 5-10% valuation premium, and enterprises with dual certifications of AEC-Q100+ISO26262 can obtain a higher premium [6].

Enterprises that enter the supply chain of mainstream automakers can obtain a 10-15% valuation premium. For every 1 million units increase in mass production scale, PS increases by 0.5-1x.

Enterprises with high computing power chips (>500TOPS) can obtain a 10-20% valuation premium, and enterprises with self-developed core IP can obtain a 5-10% premium [7].

Enterprises that cover leading automakers (such as BYD, Tesla) can obtain a 5-10% premium, and enterprises with low customer concentration (>10 automakers) can obtain a 5-8% premium.

• Characteristics: Not yet profitable, in critical period of mass production, high R&D investment
• Representatives: Horizon Robotics, RoboSense, Hesai Technology
• Valuation Elasticity: PS increases by 5-10%, market cap elasticity of 10-15%

• Characteristics: Already in small-scale mass production, under gross margin pressure, certification in progress
• Representatives: Black Sesame Intelligence, ECarX
• Valuation Elasticity: PS increases by 3-8%, market cap elasticity of 5-10%

• Characteristics: Mature enterprises, internal supporting, stable profitability
• Representatives: San’an Optoelectronics, BYD Semiconductor
• Valuation Elasticity: PE increases by 3-5%, market cap elasticity of 3-5%

• Recommended Targets: Horizon Robotics (IPO in progress), Black Sesame Intelligence (02533.HK)
• Investment Logic: Automotive-grade certification subsidies directly reduce R&D costs and accelerate mass production and vehicle deployment [3]
• Catalysts: AEC-Q100 certification breakthrough, mass production designation

• Recommended Targets: RoboSense (02498.HK), Hesai Technology (HSAI)
• Investment Logic: Full range of self-developed chips have passed AEC-Q certification, enjoying the superimposed effect of subsidies [6]
• Catalysts: Mass production of self-developed chips, designation for new vehicle models

• Recommended Targets: Zhanxin Electronics, Paieng Semiconductor
• Investment Logic: Popularization of 800V high-voltage platforms drives demand, and certification subsidies accelerate vehicle deployment [5]
• Catalysts: Automotive-grade products pass certification, enter supply chains of mainstream automakers

Recommend Huayi Technology (688001). The increase in intelligent driving penetration drives demand, and certification subsidies reduce costs.

Recommend TFME (002156), JCET (600584). The volume growth of domestic chips drives packaging and testing demand.

1. First Trading Day After Policy Release:
   It is recommended to avoid during the short-term sentiment boom period
2. When Enterprises Obtain Key Automotive-Grade Certifications:
   First buying point (relatively high margin of safety)
3. When Valuation Pulls Back Below Historical Midpoint:
   Optimal buying timing

Tracking Indicator	Monitoring Frequency	Core Significance
Automotive-Grade Certification Progress	Monthly	Precondition for products to be deployed in vehicles
Mass Production Designation Status	Quarterly	Driving force for revenue growth
Gross Margin Changes	Quarterly	Verification of subsidy policy effects
Market Share Changes	Semi-Annual	Evolution of competitive landscape

• Policy details fall short of expectations or subsidy implementation is delayed
• Local fiscal pressure leads to uncertainty in subsidy disbursement
• Expectation of subsidy withdrawal

• Failure or delay in automotive-grade certification
• Technical iteration lags behind competitors
• Product performance fails to meet automakers’ requirements

• Intelligent driving penetration grows slower than expected
• Price wars among automakers compress chip procurement costs
• International giants carry out substantial price cuts for competition

• Mass production progress falls short of expectations
• High customer concentration
• Supply chain stability issues

• Current PS valuation is at a historical high
• Profit realization cycle is long
• Market sentiment fluctuations lead to significant valuation volatility

Guangzhou’s automotive-grade certification subsidy policy will have a profound impact on the domestic automotive chip industry:

The policy accelerates the domestic replacement process. It is expected that the market share of domestic intelligent driving chips will increase from 15% in 2024 to 25-30% in 2026. The entry threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises is reduced, the number of market competitors increases, and the industrial agglomeration effect is significant [1][3].

High-sensitivity enterprises (such as Horizon Robotics, RoboSense) will see a 5-15% valuation increase. Certification premiums, mass production premiums, and technology premiums will become the core driving forces for valuation growth [6][7].

Intelligent driving SoCs, lidars, and SiC power devices are the three core tracks. Enterprises with full automotive-grade certification capabilities will obtain excess returns.

The policy will push the domestic automotive chip industry into a “accelerated development” stage:

• 2025-2026:
  Certification acceleration period, domestic replacement advances rapidly
• 2027-2028:
  Mass production volume growth period, market landscape takes initial shape
• 2029-2030:
  Mature competition period, leading enterprises stand out

In the long run, enterprises with leading technological advantages, cost control capabilities, and customer resources will win in the competition and gain sustained market share and valuation premiums.

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[1] General Office of Guangzhou Municipal People’s Government. Draft for Comments of “Several Policies of Guangzhou on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry Throughout the Chain During the 15th Five-Year Period”. 2025.

[2] China Electronics News. “Showing Integrated Circuit Support Policies Across the Country”. August 21, 2025.

[3] EETI Research Institute. “2025 Intelligent Driving Chips: The ‘Warring States Period’ of Old Kings and New Nobles”. 2025.

[4] Economic Observer Network. “2025 New Energy Vehicle Product Value Index (Q1)”. 2025.

[5] Weikehao. “Top 10 Annual Financing Hotspots in the Automotive Industry 2025”. 2025.

[6] IT Home. “From Technological Breakthrough to Ecological Implementation, RoboSense Embodied Intelligence Shines at CES”. January 2026.

[7] 36Kr. “Black Sesame Intelligence: The Breakthrough Path of Domestic Autonomous Driving Chips”. 2024.