Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ): Analysis of Business Restructuring and Growth Curve Reconstruction After Booking Over 10 Billion Yuan in Inventory Impairment

Based on the comprehensive data collected, I will provide you with an in-depth analysis of Zhifei Biological’s business restructuring strategy after booking over 10 billion yuan in inventory impairment.

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Zhifei Biological’s 2025 performance forecast shows that the company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 630% to 780%[1][2]. This is the company’s first annual loss since its listing 15 years ago, marking that the former “vaccine king” is experiencing an unprecedented survival crisis.

From the perspective of key financial indicators:

• Sharp contraction in revenue scale
  : Plummeted from the 2023 peak of 52.918 billion yuan to 7.627 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a drop of as much as 66%[2]
• Comprehensive collapse in profitability
  : The company reported a loss of 597 million yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to a profit of 2.234 billion yuan in the same period of 2024[3]

Zhifei Biological’s inventory impairment pressure stems from the superposition of multiple factors:

Time Node	Inventory Balance (100 million yuan)	YoY Change	Inventory Turnover Days
Early 2024	89.86	-	Approximately 165 days
Late 2024	222.00	+147.25%	Approximately 800 days
Q3 2025	202.46	+125% (vs. early 2024)	1103.84 days

The shelf life of HPV vaccines is only 36 months, and based on the current quarterly revenue of less than 3 billion yuan, it will take nearly two years to digest this inventory[4]. This means that a large number of vaccines may not be sold within their validity period, and once they expire and are scrapped, they will be directly recorded into current period costs.

In June 2025, Wantai Biological’s independently developed 9-valent HPV vaccine “Xinkening 9” was approved for marketing. This is the first domestic and the second global 9-valent HPV vaccine, breaking MSD’s seven-year market monopoly[4][5]. More impactful is the pricing factor:

• Wantai Biological’s pricing
  : 499 yuan per dose, approximately one-third of the price of MSD’s 9-valent HPV vaccine[4]
• International authoritative verification
  : A study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases confirmed that the vaccine is equivalent to imported products in terms of effectiveness and safety indicators[4]

This change directly led to a collapse in sales of Zhifei Biological’s proxy MSD HPV vaccines:

• The batch issuance volume of 4-valent HPV vaccines in 2024 decreased by 95.49% year-on-year, almost disappearing[5]
• The batch issuance volume of 4-valent vaccines in the first half of 2025 was zero, while that of 9-valent vaccines plummeted by 76.8% year-on-year[5]

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In early 2023, Zhifei Biological renewed the supply, distribution and joint promotion agreement with MSD, committing to complete a total of over 98 billion yuan in HPV vaccine procurement by the end of 2026[4][5]:

Year	Base Procurement Amount (100 million yuan)	Actual Procurement/Revenue Performance
2023	326.26	Revenue of 52.9 billion yuan, proxy business accounted for 98%
2024	326.26	Revenue dropped to 26.07 billion yuan, inventory of 22.2 billion yuan
2025	260.33	Revenue continues to shrink, inventory still exceeds 20 billion yuan

This “rigid procurement” instantly became an unbearable burden after the market upheaval. The company had to “face mountains of unsold vaccines on one side, and must complete the procurement tasks specified in the contract on the other”, and could only continue to borrow to expand the “reservoir” capacity[4].

As of the end of Q3 2025, Zhifei Biological is facing severe debt pressure:

• Short-term borrowings
  : 10.318 billion yuan[3]
• Monetary funds
  : Only 2.498 billion yuan[3]
• Non-current liabilities due within one year
  : 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.25%[6]
• Accounts receivable
  : 12.814 billion yuan[3]

On the other side of the billion-yuan debt is a surge in interest expenses. The interest expenditure in the first three quarters of 2025 has reached 244 million yuan[3]. To address funding pressure, the company proposed a plan in July 2025 to issue corporate bonds of no more than 6 billion yuan, marking its first large-scale bond financing since listing 15 years ago[3].

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In January 2026, Zhifei Biological secured a syndicated loan led by the Agricultural Bank of China Chongqing Jiangbei Branch, with a limit of no more than 10.2 billion yuan and a term of no more than 3 years[7]. The features of this loan include:

• Full guarantee from actual controller
  : The Jiang Rensheng family provides free joint liability guarantee, pledging all core subsidiary equity and huge accounts receivable[4]
• Clear use of funds
  : Supplement working capital and optimize existing debt, not to be used for fixed asset investment[6]
• Strategic significance
  : Replace short-term debt with medium- and long-term borrowings to reduce debt repayment pressure[7]

Facing universal industry challenges, Zhifei Biological has adopted multiple measures to optimize its operational strategies[7][8]:

1. Adjust procurement plan
   : Negotiate with partners to adjust procurement rhythm and alleviate upstream supply pressure
2. Optimize promotion strategy
   : Launch “buy two doses, get one free” benefit campaigns in Chongqing, Fuzhou, Xi’an and other places, which is the first disguised price reduction for MSD’s 9-valent HPV vaccine since entering the Chinese market[4]
3. Strengthen debt replacement
   : Optimize debt structure through syndicated loans and sci-tech innovation bonds
4. Accelerate destocking
   : Inventory turnover efficiency has improved, and operating cash flow has achieved positive growth for three consecutive quarters[7]

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Zhifei Biological is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a “vaccine agent” to a “self R&D-driven biotech enterprise”. The company clearly proposes an innovation strategy of “self R&D as the mainstay, collaborative R&D as supplement, investment incubation as complement”[8].

:

• Cumulative R&D investment exceeds 6 billion yuan[8]
• Annual investment in 2024 reached nearly 1.4 billion yuan[5]
• The R&D team continues to expand, with over 100 professional and technical talents from top institutions such as Tsinghua University, Peking University, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences gathered in the Beijing Innovation Incubation Center[8]

Zhifei Biological has 34 ongoing projects in the field of preventive biological products, of which 24 have entered the clinical trial and marketing application stage[8]. Multiple breakthroughs were achieved in 2025:

Product Name	Progress Stage	Expected Value
4-valent Influenza Virus Split Vaccine	Approved for marketing	Completed access in 25 provinces
4-valent Meningococcal Conjugate Vaccine	Marketing registration application accepted	Fills domestic market gap
15-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine	Phase III clinical trial summary report	Forms synergy with 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine
Human Diploid Cell Rabies Vaccine	Final stage of marketing review	Replaces existing Vero cell vaccines
Bivalent Shigella Conjugate Vaccine	Phase III clinical trial in Bangladesh	World’s first vaccine that can simultaneously prevent infection by Shigella flexneri and Shigella sonnei
26-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine	Phase I clinical trial in Australia	Domestic product with the highest valency
Therapeutic BCG Vaccine	Phase III clinical trial	New option for bladder cancer treatment

In March 2025, Zhifei Biological invested 593 million yuan in cash to acquire a controlling stake in Chenan Biological, completing its strategic expansion from “preventing diseases” to “treating diseases”[3][6]. Chenan Biological focuses on metabolic diseases such as diabetes and obesity, with layouts in GLP-1 analogs, insulin analogs and other directions:

:

• Liraglutide Injection
  : Marketing application stage[8]
• Insulin Degludec/Insulin Aspart Injection
  : Completed Phase III clinical trials[8]
• Semaglutide Injection (anti-diabetic)
  : Completed Phase III clinical trials[8]
• Semaglutide Injection (weight loss)
  : Phase III clinical trials ongoing[8]
• GLP/GLP-1 Dual Agonist CA111 Injection
  : Initiated Phase I clinical trials[8]

Chenan Biological has a commercialization base with an annual production capacity of 30 million finished doses, laying a solid foundation for subsequent product commercialization[8]. This layout targets the hundred-billion-yuan metabolic disease market, and is regarded as Zhifei Biological’s new performance growth engine[6].

Although the revenue share of self-developed products is still low, it has shown positive growth momentum:

• Total revenue of self-developed products in 2024 reached 1.182 billion yuan, maintaining growth[5]
• In the first three quarters of 2025, operating revenue achieved positive growth in two quarters[7]
• The revenue share of proxy products dropped from 98.05% in 2023 to 89% in the first half of 2025[3]

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Zhifei Biological’s stock price fell from a peak market value of over 400 billion yuan in 2021 to less than 50 billion yuan in early 2026, a decline of over 90%[5].

(as of January 13, 2026):

• Closing price
  : 20.19 yuan per share
• 52-week performance
  : -17.56%
• 3-year performance
  : -71.05%
• 5-year performance
  : -79.54%
• Technical indicators
  : KDJ shows a bullish signal (K:77.2, D:74.2), RSI is in the overbought zone, MACD shows no crossover with a bullish trend
• Trend judgment
  : Sideways consolidation with no clear trend, price range reference [CNY 19.32, CNY 20.39][9]

According to financial analysis tool evaluation[0]:

• Financial attitude classification
  : Aggressive (low depreciation/capital expenditure ratio)
• Debt risk
  : Low risk
• ROE
  : -4.43% (net profit margin -12.27%, conservative use of leverage)
• Current ratio
  : 2.80 (acceptable short-term solvency)
• Quick ratio
  : 1.23 (high inventory proportion)

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:

1. Accelerate digestion of 20.2 billion yuan in inventory to reduce impairment risk
2. Replace short-term debt with syndicated loans to alleviate liquidity pressure
3. Optimize the procurement agreement with MSD to seek more flexible terms

:

• Inventory turnover days reduced from 1103 to a normal level (300-400 days)
• Operating cash flow remains positive
• Narrowing loss is expected in 2026

:

1. 2026: 4-valent influenza vaccine, 15-valent pneumococcal vaccine, and human diploid cell rabies vaccine are expected to be approved for marketing
2. 2027: Commercialization of GLP-1 drugs (semaglutide, liraglutide)
3. 2028: The revenue share of self-developed products increases to over 30%

:

• Annual growth rate of the influenza vaccine market is 10-15%
• Huge domestic substitution space for pneumococcal vaccines
• Global GLP-1 drug market scale exceeds 100 billion USD

:

• Build an integrated “prevention + treatment” health industry ecosystem
• Become a leading comprehensive biotech enterprise in China
• Revenue share of self-developed products exceeds 70%

:

• Intensified competition from domestic 9-valent HPV vaccines (products from Watson Biological, Kangle Weishi are expected to be launched in 2026-2028)[5]
• Fierce competition in the GLP-1 track, facing overwhelming advantages from multinational giants[5]
• Long commercialization cycle for R&D products, with uncertainties

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Zhifei Biological is undergoing a life-or-death transformation from a “vaccine agent” to a “self R&D-driven enterprise”. Booking over 10 billion yuan in inventory impairment is a “financial bath” for the company’s historically aggressive expansion strategy. Although it causes huge losses in the short term, it lays a foundation for lightening the burden in the future.

:

1. Accelerate the launch pace of self-developed products to fill the gap left by the declining proxy business
2. Successfully commercialize GLP-1 drugs to enter the hundred-billion-yuan metabolic disease market
3. Effectively control inventory impairment risks and stabilize cash flow
4. Maintain cooperative relations with MSD and seek more flexible procurement terms

• Intensified industry competition
  : HPV vaccine products from Wantai Biological, Watson Biological, Kangle Weishi and other enterprises are launched one after another, and price wars continue
• R&D progress falls short of expectations
  : Vaccine and drug R&D cycles are long, with the risk of failure
• Cash flow rupture risk
  : High short-term debt pressure; sustained negative operating cash flow may trigger a liquidity crisis
• Policy uncertainty
  : Changes in pharmaceutical industry policies may affect product access and pricing

The current market valuation of Zhifei Biological has fully reflected expectations of intensified industry competition. Considering:

• The company still has 20 billion yuan in inventory to be digested on its books
• The value of the self-developed product pipeline has not been fully reflected in the stock price
• The GLP-1 drug layout has certain imagination space

It is recommended to focus on the approval progress of the company’s self-developed products and improvements in inventory turnover as key indicators for judging the valuation bottom.

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[1] Caiwen News - “Zhifei Biological (Market Value 48 Billion Yuan) Expects a Loss of Over 10 Billion Yuan: It Once Agreed on a Hundred-billion-yuan Procurement with MSD at Its Peak” (https://www.caiwennews.com/article/1412951.shtml)

[2] Sina Finance - “Zhifei Biological Expects a Loss of Over 10.6 Billion Yuan! Why Did the Chongqing Richest Man, Who Held the ‘Vaccine Secret’, Fail?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2026-01-13/doc-inhheqff7254076.shtml)

[3] The Beijing News - “Industry Involvement and Performance Pressure: Zhifei Biological Applies for 10.2 Billion Yuan Syndicated Loan to Alleviate Pressure” (https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/1767879973168770.html)

[4] Guancha.cn - “Behind the 10.2 Billion Yuan Loan: Zhifei Biological Fulfills the ‘Indentured Servitude’ Agreement of 98 Billion Yuan with MSD” (https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2026_01_12_803573.shtml)

[5] Guancha.cn - “Under the Wave of Domestic 9-valent HPV Vaccines, Zhifei Bets Its Future on 10 Billion Yuan in R&D” (https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2026_01_12_803573.shtml)

[6] The Beijing News Shell Finance - “Zhifei Biological Plans to Issue 6 Billion Yuan Corporate Bonds” (https://www.bjnews.com.cn)

[7] People’s Daily Online Chongqing Channel - “Zhifei Biological: Multiple Measures to Optimize Operational Strategies and Enhance Future Development Resilience” (http://cq.people.com.cn/n2/2026/0113/c365412-41470906.html)

[8] People’s Daily Online Chongqing Channel - “Pipeline Outbreak: Self-developed Breakthroughs Demonstrate Innovation Strength” (http://cq.people.com.cn/n2/2026/0113/c365412-41470906.html)

[9] Jinling AI Technical Analysis Data [0]

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: Jinling AI Financial Analysis Team
: January 13, 2026