Analysis of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) STAR Market IPO: Approx. RMB 300 Billion Valuation and DRAM Technological Competitiveness Assessment

Based on the latest information collected, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis report on ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) STAR Market IPO and its DRAM technological competitiveness.

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ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) officially filed for an IPO on the STAR Market on December 30, 2025, becoming the first company on the STAR Market to apply for listing under the

[1][2]. This institutional innovation was launched by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in June 2025, aiming to reduce the “exposure” time before listing and lower competitive risks caused by the disclosure of sensitive information.

• June 2025
  : Completed the final pre-IPO financing round, with Alibaba Cloud investing RMB 6.1 billion to subscribe for 3.85% of the increased registered capital, pushing the pre-IPO valuation to
  RMB 158.4 billion
  [1]
• Planned IPO Fundraising
  :
  RMB 29.5 billion
  (after deducting issuance fees), a record high in the history of the STAR Market[2]
• Planned Issuance Valuation
  : Back-calculated based on the newly issued shares accounting for no less than 10% of the total share capital after issuance, the expected planned issuance valuation is approximately
  RMB 295 billion
  , doubling from the valuation half a year ago[2]

Valuation Method	Calculation Basis	Valuation Result
Back-calculated from Issue Price	Fundraising of RMB 29.5 billion ÷ 10%	≈ RMB 295 billion
Price-to-Sales Ratio (PS)	2025 revenue of RMB 47.8 billion × 15.32x PS	RMB 732.5 billion
Micron Benchmarking	Revenue of RMB 55 billion × 13x PS	RMB 715 billion
Micron Benchmarking	Net profit of RMB 2-3.5 billion × 423x PE	RMB 840 billion+

According to the prospectus, CXMT’s IPO fundraising will be mainly used for the following purposes[2]:

• RMB 7.5 billion
  : Wafer production line transformation and upgrading
• RMB 13 billion
  : DRAM technology upgrading
• RMB 9 billion
  : Cutting-edge technology R&D

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Founded in 2016, ChangXin Memory Technologies has achieved major breakthroughs after nearly a decade of technological accumulation:

Phase	Milestone	Technological Level
2019	Launched 8Gb DDR4 products	Achieved China’s “from 0 to 1” breakthrough in DRAM[1]
2020	Mass production of 19nm process	Entered the advanced 1Xnm stage[3]
2024	17nm DDR4 products	Yield rate reached 80%, 15-20% lower in cost than South Korean manufacturers[4]
2025	Mass production of LPDDR5 series	12GB LPDDR5 chips completed brand validation[4]

• Has skipped the 18nm process and directly developed the 17nm process[3]
• Product portfolio covers mainstream DRAM specifications including DDR4, LPDDR4X, DDR5, and LPDDR5
• Adopts the mainstream
  Stacked Capacitor DRAM Technology
  (consistent with major manufacturers like Samsung), which is conducive to future technological upgrading[3]

According to Omdia data, the global DRAM market presented a highly concentrated landscape in 2024[1]:

Ranking	Company	Market Share	Remarks
1	Samsung Electronics	40.35%	Global leader
2	SK Hynix	33.19%	Second-largest manufacturer
3	Micron Technology	20.73%	Third-largest manufacturer
4	ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT)	3.97%	4th largest globally, 1st largest in China [1]

• The three giants firmly hold approximately
  95%
  of the market share[1]
• CXMT is the only Chinese enterprise to rank among the top 4 globally
• Its production capacity is expected to reach a level close to Micron Technology’s in 2025[4]

Indicator	ChangXin Memory Technologies	Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron	Gap Analysis
Most Advanced Process	17nm	10nm-class (expected to enter 1c nm in 2025)	Gap of about 2-3 generations
Global Market Share	3.97%	95% combined for top 3	Huge room for catch-up
Technology Node	1Xnm	1Y/1Z/1α nm	Continuous breakthroughs required
Process Stability	80% yield rate	90%+ yield rate	Room for improvement remains

• Cost Advantage
  : The unit wafer cost of 17nm DDR4 products is
  15%-20% lower
  than that of South Korean manufacturers[4]
• Domestic Market
  : Domestic market demand accounts for more than
  30%
  of global memory demand[4]
• Leading Growth Rate
  : 2024 revenue growth rate reached 166%, far exceeding SK Hynix’s 81% and Micron’s 64%[1]

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Financial Indicator	2022-2024	2025 (E)	Remarks
Revenue	Sustained growth	RMB 55-58 billion	YoY growth of 97.79% in Jan-Sep 2025[1]
Net Profit	Cumulative loss of RMB 37.5 billion	RMB 2-3.5 billion	Expected to turn profitable in 2025[1]
Gross Margin	In the climbing phase	35%	Driven by the DRAM price surge
Non-Recurring Profit and Loss Adjusted Net Profit	In loss	RMB 2.8-3 billion	Improvement in main business profitability

1. Industry Cycle Reversal
   : The DRAM market experienced a “frenzy-style price surge” in the second half of 2025[1]
2. Increased Production Capacity Utilization
   : Capacity ramp-up dilutes fixed costs
3. Economies of Scale Emerge
   : Expanded revenue scale reduces unit costs
4. Yield Rate Improvement
   : Yield rate of 17nm products reaches 80%[4]

• DRAM has
  commodity attributes
  and obvious strong cyclical characteristics
• Impact of Huge Depreciation: Depreciation in 2024 and H1 2025 reached RMB 14.9 billion and RMB 11.3 billion respectively, accounting for over 50% of revenue[2]
• Technological iteration, demand changes, and trade policies may all affect performance

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Company	Price-to-Sales Ratio (PS)	Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	Remarks
Micron Technology	13x	423x	International DRAM leader[1]
Samsung Electronics	-	-	Affected by group valuation
SMIC	15x	200x	Semiconductor leader on the STAR Market[1]
ChangXin Memory Technologies (Proposed)	15.32x	To be determined	Valued using market approach[2]

• Scarcity
  : The “first memory chip stock” on A-shares, a core target for domestic substitution
• Growth
  : Revenue growth rate far exceeds that of industry giants
• Policy Support
  : A core target of the semiconductor localization strategy
• Industry Status
  : 4th largest globally and 1st largest in China in DRAM manufacturing

• Has not yet achieved stable profitability (just turned profitable in 2025)
• Still lags behind overseas giants by 2-3 generations in technology
• High cyclical volatility in the DRAM industry
• Uncertainties in international trade policies

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1. Pioneer of Domestic Substitution
   : Broke the US-South Korean DRAM monopoly and achieved a “from 0 to 1” breakthrough
2. Cost Competitiveness
   : Unit wafer cost is 15-20% lower than that of South Korean manufacturers
3. Domestic Market Advantage
   : Backed by the world’s largest consumer electronics market
4. Industrial Synergy
   : Supported by industrial chain shareholders including GigaDevice, Alibaba Cloud, and Xiaomi
5. Capital Support
   : Multi-layer endorsement from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II, state-owned capital, and industrial capital

Risk Type	Details	Impact Level
Technological Risk	Lags behind giants by 2-3 generations in process technology	High
Cyclical Risk	DRAM price fluctuations affect profitability	High
Policy Risk	International trade restrictions, export controls	Medium-High
Competitive Risk	Survival space squeezed by the three giants through economies of scale	Medium
Financial Risk	Huge depreciation continues to impact profits	Medium

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CXMT’s IPO valuation of nearly RMB 300 billion has

:

• Scarcity Premium: The first memory chip stock on A-shares
• Growth Premium: Revenue growth rate far exceeds the industry average
• Domestic Substitution Premium: Strategic value supported by policies

However, attention should be paid to the following:

• If valued at over RMB 700 billion based on the price-to-sales ratio, sustained high-speed growth is required to support it
• Overvalued short-term valuation may face market digestion pressure
• The cyclical nature of DRAM may lead to performance fluctuations

• ✅ Achieved China’s breakthrough from zero to one in DRAM
• ✅ 17nm process yield rate reaches 80%, with obvious cost advantages
• ✅ Global market share rapidly increased to 3.97%
• ✅ Product portfolio covers mainstream DRAM specifications

• ❌ Still lags behind Samsung/SK Hynix by 2-3 generations in technology
• ❌ Global market share is still low, and economies of scale are yet to be realized
• ❌ R&D capabilities for advanced processes need continuous verification

As a benchmark enterprise in China’s memory chip industry, CXMT’s technological competitiveness is in a period of rapid improvement. With the support of financing from the STAR Market listing, it is expected to accelerate technological iteration, expand production capacity scale, and gradually narrow the gap with international giants. However, investors need to pay attention to risks brought by factors such as cyclical fluctuations in the DRAM industry, progress in technological breakthroughs, and changes in international trade policies.

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[1] Securities Times - “The First Memory Chip Stock” Epic IPO! RMB 300 Billion CXMT Arrives (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3571683.html)

[2] Sina Finance - CXMT IPO: Planned Fundraising Amount Ranks First in STAR Market History (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-01-08/doc-inhfqtyr6649876.shtml)

[3] Minsheng Securities - CXMT Leads the Wave of Mainland DRAM Localization, Industrial Chain Expected to Fully Benefit (http://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202002251375443056_1.pdf)

[4] China Electronic News - CXMT Launches Listing Counseling, RMB 140 Billion Valuation to Impact “First Memory Chip Stock” (http://dianzibao.cb.com.cn/images/2025-07/14/23/2611C03B.pdf)