In-Depth Investment Research Report on the Lead Screw Segment in the Humanoid Robot Track

Based on the industry materials and research data I collected, I will systematically analyze the explosive potential of the lead screw segment in the humanoid robot track.

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According to calculations by Zheshang Securities, the value proportion of linear actuators including planetary roller screws and T-type lead screws reaches

, making it the segment with the largest value in the whole machine [1]. From the perspective of industry chain value distribution:

Component Segment	Value Proportion	Localization Rate	Explosive Priority
Lead Screws (Linear Actuators)	19.4%	<30%	★★★★★
Frameless Torque Motors	~16%	Relatively High	★★★★☆
Reducers	~9-13%	Gradually Improving	★★★★☆
Sensors	~4%	Relatively Low	★★★☆☆

A single humanoid robot requires

(for body joints) + (for dexterous hands), with the value of screws per unit reaching approximately (depending on different precision levels). More importantly, as the degree of freedom of Tesla Optimus’ third-generation dexterous hand increases from 11 to , the demand for screws per unit will reach , which will further increase the value proportion of screws in the whole machine [2].

According to research by Huaxin Securities, the value of planetary roller screws applied to humanoid robots will reach

by , with a CAGR of as high as from 2024 to 2030 [1]. Even under neutral expectations, the market size brought by the global volume of humanoid robots to planetary roller screws will be approximately by 2030.

Market Size Forecast	2025	2026	2030
Humanoid Robot Shipment Volume (10,000 units)	~1.8	~6.25	-
Market Size of Planetary Roller Screws (Hundred Million RMB)	-	-	187-229

Data Sources: GGII (Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute), Huaxin Securities, 36Kr [1][3]

The high technical barriers of the lead screw segment are reflected in the following aspects:

The structure of planetary roller screws is complex, involving precise coupling of screw shafts, rollers, and nuts, and their manufacturing is described in the industry as

[4]. Specific difficulties include:

• The composite processing of multi-start threads and spline teeth has extremely high requirements for grinding technology
• The processing of internal threads of nuts is a core barrier, requiring high-precision grinding in limited space
• Any tiny manufacturing error, assembly error, or force-induced deformation will be coupled and amplified, ultimately affecting transmission accuracy

Lead screw production heavily relies on imported high-end precision grinders, whirlwind milling machines, and other equipment, with a single unit costing up to

[4]. Especially for internal thread grinders, there is currently no internal thread grinder in the world that can grind large-lead lead screws, which has become the core equipment bottleneck of the industry.

The precision requirement for planetary roller screws used in humanoid robots is

, which is much higher than the Grade C7 and C10 lead screws used in the automotive and industrial sectors [5].

Currently, planetary roller screws are

, with limited overseas production capacity and high prices. According to GGII data, the top four overseas suppliers (with a market share of approximately 78%) dominated the market in 2022, while the combined market share of domestic manufacturers was only about 20% [1][6]:

Manufacturer	Market Share	Country/Region
Rollvis	26%	Switzerland
GSA	26%	Switzerland
Ewellix	14%	Sweden
Rexroth (Bosch)	12%	Germany
Nanjing Gongyi	8%	China
Jining Bote	8%	China

This supply-demand pattern means that once domestic manufacturers achieve technological breakthroughs, they will face

. Enterprises that achieve breakthroughs first are expected to gain significant competitive barriers and excess returns.

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Lead screws are mainly divided into three categories, and rolling screws have higher adaptability in the humanoid robot field:

Lead Screw Type	Precision	Load-Bearing Capacity	Cost	Applicability to Humanoid Robots
Sliding Lead Screws	Low	Low	Low	Not Applicable
Ball Screws	Medium-High	Medium	Medium	Dexterous Hands, Some Joints
Planetary Roller Screws	High	High	High	Body Joints (Mainstream Scheme)

Planetary roller screws have significant technical advantages over ball screws:

Indicator	Planetary Roller Screws	Ball Screws	Advantage Multiple
Rated Load Capacity	High	Medium	3-6x
Service Life	10-15 years	1-2 years	10-15x
Volume	Small	Large	Reduced by 1/3
Precision	Above Grade C5	Relatively Low	Better
Self-Locking Performance	Available	Requires Additional Braking	Better

: Planetary roller screws use rollers instead of balls for transmission. Since the contact point changes from “point contact” to “line contact”, load-bearing capacity and rigidity are greatly improved, perfectly matching the requirements of humanoid robots for .

Currently, planetary roller screws are expensive, and cost reduction is also an important direction for the future:

Product Type	Unit Price (RMB/piece)	Application Scenario
Planetary Roller Screws (for Tesla Optimus)	~2000	Body Joints
High-End Imported Planetary Roller Screws	10000-20000	Aerospace, Military Industry
Ball Screws	200-600	Industrial Automation, Dexterous Hands

:

1. Localization Substitution: The product cost of domestic manufacturers is only
   1/3
   that of Japan’s THK [2]
2. Scale Effect: Increased shipments form economies of scale
3. Technological Innovation: New technologies such as “turning instead of grinding”

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Currently, the listed companies on A-shares with obvious lead screw business labels mainly include

and others, each with their own technical and business focuses:

Dimension	Details
Main Business	Mainly engaged in auto precision parts; planetary roller screws and miniature lead screws are new growth drivers
Technological Breakthroughs	The precision of reverse planetary roller screws reaches Grade C5 ; breakthrough in the technical bottleneck of 1.8mm miniature ball screws
Capacity Layout	Approved a RMB 100 million private placement project for lead screws in December 2025; with a 3-year construction period, it can support approximately 80,000 humanoid robots after production starts
Customer Progress	Has entered the supply chains of Tesla and Bosch; won a fixed-point order from Changan Chenzhi Technology
Financial Performance	Lead screw business revenue was RMB 6.13 million in 2024, and RMB 2.7 million in H1 2025, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue

Dimension	Details
Main Business	Domestic leader in hydraulic cylinders; entered the lead screw field via a RMB 1.4 billion private placement in 2021
Technological Breakthroughs	Takes integrated electric cylinders as core products, realizing the integration of “motor + lead screw + cylinder block”
Capacity Layout	Put into production in 2024 with an annual output of 104,000 standard ball screw electric cylinders and 4,500 heavy-duty ball screw electric cylinders ; its subsidiary Hengli Precision’s annual output of 660,000 meters of standard ball screws project was put into production in November 2025
Capacity Value	The annual industrial output value of the lead screw product line will exceed RMB 3 billion
Customer Progress	Has entered Tesla’s supply chain system, with the leading capacity progress among the three
Financial Performance	Net profit margin of 26.85% in the first three quarters of 2025, with the strongest profitability

Dimension	Details
Main Business	Centered on auto chassis parts, focusing on planetary roller screw business
Technological Breakthroughs	Relying on process accumulation in chassis parts, the precision of dexterous hand miniature lead screws developed in cooperation with Ubtech and DeepWay Robotics reaches Grade C5
Capacity Layout	Invested RMB 1.85 billion to build a R&D and production base in Kunshan in 2024; mass production will be achieved in 2026 with an annual capacity of 2.6 million sets ; the 800,000-set project in Thailand is in progress, with a total capacity of 3.4 million sets upon completion
Customer Progress	Cooperates with humanoid robot enterprises such as Ubtech and DeepWay Robotics to develop related products
Financial Performance	Net profit margin of 5.67% in the first three quarters of 2025, with relatively large growth fluctuations

Dimension	Details
Business Positioning	Engaged in precision transmission for 25 years; the product used in humanoid robots is reverse planetary roller screws
Industry Status	Called a Tier-1 Supplier in the Humanoid Robot T-Chain by many brokerage analysts; products have achieved substantial application
Capacity Layout	Started construction of its headquarters and an industrialization project base for planetary roller screws for humanoid robots with an annual output of 1 million units in Q1 2025; planned total investment of RMB 2.6 billion , with RMB 1 billion invested in the first phase
Customer Progress	According to market news, Tesla placed a mass production order for dexterous hand assemblies with Xinyan Transmission at the end of September 2025, with a volume of 1,000 units or more
IPO Progress	Launched IPO tutoring on January 9, 2026, with CITIC Securities as the tutoring institution; it is expected to assess whether it meets the issuance conditions in April-May 2026

: Wuzhou Xinchun signed a Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement with Xinyan Transmission in March 2025 to promote the production supporting of components such as planetary roller screws and miniature ball screws [7][8].

Manufacturer	Capacity Achievement Time	Capacity Scale	Benefit Order
Hengli Hydraulics	2025	Annual output value over RMB 3 billion	First to benefit in 2026
Beite Technology	2026	3.4 million sets	Capacity release in 2026
Wuzhou Xinchun	After 2027	Supports 80,000 robots	Slightly later but with high elasticity
Xinyan Transmission	Under construction	1 million units	Largest scale, technologically leading

: As the industry enters the volume growth period in 2026, ; will have greater performance elasticity due to its focus on planetary roller screws and larger capacity scale [1].

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Time Node	Catalytic Event
Q1 2025	Xinyan Transmission starts construction of the 1 million-unit annual output planetary roller screw project
Q3 2025	Tesla places dexterous hand assembly order (1,000+ units) with Xinyan Transmission
Q4 2025	Capacity release by multiple domestic manufacturers
February-March 2026	Tesla Optimus Gen3 prototype is expected to be ready
2026	Tesla is expected to produce 50,000-100,000 humanoid robots
H1 2026	Expected to enter the investment window for mass production

According to data from institutions such as GGII:

• 2025
  : Domestic humanoid robot shipments are approximately
  18,000 units
• 2026
  : Expected to rise to
  62,500 units
• 2030
  : The global humanoid robot market will bring a market size of approximately
  RMB 18.7-22.9 billion
  for planetary roller screws

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, mainly based on the following logic:

1. Highest Value Proportion
   (19.4%): Once the industry enters volume growth, lead screw manufacturers will gain the largest revenue elasticity
2. Highest Barriers
   : Technical barriers bring first-mover advantages, and the competitive landscape will be favorable after breakthroughs
3. Largest Space for Localization Substitution
   : Currently, the localization rate is <30%, with huge dividends from import substitution
4. Supply-Demand Mismatch
   : Overseas production capacity is limited, and domestic manufacturers are expected to seize market share

Target	Logic	Risk Warning
Hengli Hydraulics	Leading capacity progress, has entered Tesla’s supply chain, with the strongest profitability	Relatively high valuation
Beite Technology	Largest capacity scale (3.4 million sets), focuses on planetary roller screws	Large fluctuations in profitability
Wuzhou Xinchun	Significant technological breakthroughs (Grade C5 precision), bound with Xinyan Transmission	Low revenue proportion
Xinyan Transmission	Tier-1 supplier in the T-chain, 1 million-unit capacity plan, the purest in the industry	Not yet listed

:

• Tesla Optimus Gen3 is about to be released
• The industry enters the mass production ramp-up stage
• Concentrated capacity release by domestic manufacturers
• The industry chain is at the inflection point from "technical verification" to "large-scale mass production" [7]

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1. Technological Risk
   : The technical barriers of lead screws are extremely high, and the process stability and consistency of domestic manufacturers still need to be verified
2. Mass Production Risk
   : The commercialization progress of humanoid robots may fall short of expectations
3. Price Risk
   : Industry price wars may lead to a decline in gross profit margin
4. Equipment Risk
   : Core grinding equipment relies on imports, posing supply chain security risks
5. Valuation Risk
   : Current market expectations are relatively high, and we need to be alert to the failure of expectations

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[1] 36Kr - 《Which Segment is Most Likely to Explode in the Trillion-Yuan Humanoid Robot Track?》(https://m.36kr.com/p/3636380217885702)

[2] Dolphin Research - 《Starting from Scratch in a Trillion-Yuan Track, Are Humanoid Robots the Last Hope in the AI Field?》(https://eu.36kr.com/zh/p/3610932396311554)

[3] Securities Times - 《Humanoid Robot Industry Heats Up, Multiple Concept Stocks Favored by Institutions》(https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3574963.html)

[4] Eastmoney - 《Planetary Roller Screw Market Report》(https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260109161152527161900)

[5] NIO Finance - 《In-Depth Report on Nanjing Gongyi Lead Screws》(https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260108163021374579810)

[6] Huaxin Securities - Research Report on Planetary Roller Screws for Humanoid Robots

[7] Shanghai Securities News - 《Good News for Humanoid Robots! Tier-1 Supplier in the T-Chain Sprints for IPO》(https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2026-01-10/doc-inhfvhep4883418.shtml)

[8] Eastmoney - 《Humanoid Robot Supplier Xinyan Transmission Sprints for IPO》(https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601123615772065.html)

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: With the highest value proportion (19.4%), the largest space for localization substitution (localization rate <30%), and the highest technical barriers, the lead screw segment has the strongest explosive potential in the humanoid robot track. As Tesla Optimus’ mass production approaches in 2026 and domestic manufacturers release concentrated capacity, the lead screw segment is expected to usher in a golden development period of "simultaneous growth in volume and price".