Impact Analysis of Changchun High-Tech's Growth Hormone Inclusion in Medical Insurance: 75% Price Cut Hits Profits

Based on collected data and in-depth analysis, the following is a detailed analysis report on

:

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Starting from January 1, 2026, the new version of the “National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance and Work-Related Injury Insurance Drug Catalogue” was officially implemented, and

from Jinsai Pharmaceutical, a subsidiary of Changchun High-Tech, was included in the medical insurance catalogue for the first time [1].

Product Type	Pre-Price Cut (RMB/vial)	Medical Insurance Reimbursement Price (RMB/vial)	Reduction Rate
Jinsai Zeng (9mg Long-acting Water Injection)	~3,500	~900	74.3%
Saizeng (Short-acting Water Injection)	~1,000	300	70.0%
Short-acting Powder Injection	~300	250	16.7%
Competitor Yipeisheng (5mg)	1,798	853.2	52.6%

: The price of the core product Jinsai Zeng (9mg specification) dropped sharply from approximately RMB 3,500 per vial to approximately RMB 900 per vial, with a reduction rate of , far exceeding market expectations [1][2].

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According to the latest financial report data [0]:

• Operating Revenue
  : RMB 13.466 billion, down 7.55% year-on-year
• Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders
  : RMB 2.583 billion, down 43.01% year-on-year
• Net Profit Margin
  : 19.18%, halved compared to 38.57% in 2020
• Estimated Growth Hormone Business Revenue
  : Approximately RMB 9.426 billion (accounting for about 70% of total revenue)

Based on the above financial data, scenario analysis of the impact of medical insurance price cuts is conducted:

Scenario	Assumptions	Impact on Revenue	Adjusted Net Profit	Net Profit Reduction
Baseline	2024 actual data	-	RMB 2.583 billion	-
Scenario 1	Only long-acting water injection price cut by 75%	-RMB 2.121 billion	RMB 462 million	-82.1%
Scenario 2	All products average price cut by 50%	-RMB 4.713 billion	-RMB 2.130 billion	-182.5%
Scenario 3	50% price cut + 30% sales volume growth offset	-RMB 1.885 billion	RMB 698 million	-73.0%

1. Extreme Impact Scenario
   : If all products are sold at medical insurance prices (Scenario 2), the company will switch from profit to
   a loss of over RMB 2.1 billion

2. Controllable Actual Impact
   : Considering:
   • Prescription drugs require professional doctor guidance, so hoarding is impossible [1]
   • The price reduction rate of short-acting powder injection is only 16.7%, which can serve as a profit buffer
   • Sales volume growth is expected to offset part of the price decline (Scenario 3)

3. Inevitable Short-term Pain
   : Even in the best-case scenario (Scenario 3), net profit will still drop by approximately
   73%

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Year	Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (RMB billion)	YoY Growth Rate	Net Profit Margin
2020	33.08	+71.64%	38.57%
2021	40.52	+22.49%	37.70%
2022	41.40	+2.17%	32.78%
2023	45.32	+9.47%	31.12%
2024	25.83	-43.01%	19.18%
2025Q1-Q3	11.65	-58.23%	10.81%

• Operating Revenue
  : RMB 3.204 billion, down 14.55% year-on-year
• Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders
  : Only RMB 182 million,
  plunging 82.98%
  year-on-year
• Net Profit Margin
  : 5.68%, a decrease of more than 30 percentage points compared to 2020

: The company’s net profit has dropped sharply for several consecutive quarters, and medical insurance price cuts will further exacerbate this trend [2][3].

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• May 2025
  : Yipei Growth Hormone from Tebio Bio (688278.SH) was approved for marketing, becoming the world’s first Y-type 40kD PEGylated long-acting growth hormone
• December 2025
  : Novo Nordisk’s Pasi Growth Hormone was approved for marketing by the National Medical Products Administration
• Ascendis Pharma
  : Longpei Growth Hormone has submitted a marketing application

• Changchun High-Tech’s
  10-year monopoly position
  in the long-acting growth hormone market has been broken [2]
• Jinsai Pharmaceutical holds approximately 75% of the domestic market share and faces pressure from intensified competition [2]
• Multinational giant Novo Nordisk has strong marketing capabilities and channel advantages

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1. Price War Risk
   : The medical insurance price reduction exceeds expectations, which may trigger an industry price war
2. Continuous Performance Deterioration
   : If sales volume growth cannot offset the price decline, profits will come under further pressure
3. Intensified Competition
   : Multiple pharmaceutical companies are entering the market, and market share faces dilution
4. Valuation Pressure
   : The current P/E ratio is 43.31 times, which is relatively high [0]

1. Demand Release
   : The annual treatment cost has dropped from RMB 120,000 to approximately RMB 30,000, which will release suppressed rigid demand [1]
2. Market Expansion
   : Medical insurance access is expected to promote the replacement of short-acting products with long-acting products, and the market size may expand by 1-2 times [1]
3. Grassroots Market Penetration
   : The threshold for medication for patients in economically underdeveloped areas has been significantly reduced

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: Medical insurance price cuts will have a on Changchun High-Tech’s profits. Net profit is expected to drop by 60%-80%, and there is a risk of performance losses. The 75% price reduction of the core product Jinsai Zeng exceeds market expectations.

: The key observation is whether sales volume growth can effectively offset price declines. If the number of new patients grows by more than 30%, performance is expected to gradually stabilize.

: The growth hormone market is shifting from “high-end self-paid” to “medical insurance universal coverage”, and the industry will enter a stage of popularized growth. The first-mover advantage of cutting prices first may help the company occupy a larger share in the expanded market.

: Given the significant short-term performance pressure, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the sales data in the and , focusing on tracking the sales volume growth of long-acting water injections and changes in market share. If sales volume growth exceeds expectations, investors can accumulate positions on dips.

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[1] Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily - “Price Cut Implemented! Medical Insurance Implementation Reshapes Growth Hormone Market, Long-acting Products Launch New Battle” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-08/doc-inhfqcav4006546.shtml)

[2] Weikehao - “New Business Benefits Cannot Offset Basic Disk Negative Factors, Changchun High-Tech’s Market Value Drops by 80%” (https://mp.ofweek.com/Internet/a156714180627)

[3] China Times - “After Q3 Net Profit Plunges 83%, Can ‘Northeast Pharmaceutical Leader’ Changchun High-Tech Survive with Its 7th Financing?” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251214A02JLL00)

[4] Jinling AI Financial Database - Corporate Financial Data and Real-time Market Quotes [0]

: The chart above shows the trend of net profit attributable to shareholders of Changchun High-Tech from 2019 to 2025, changes in net profit margin, comparison of medical insurance price reduction rates for growth hormone products, and scenario analysis of the impact of medical insurance price cuts on net profit. The red annotation in the chart indicates the downward trend from 2024 onwards, reflecting the continuous impact of volume-based procurement and medical insurance price reduction policies on the company’s performance.