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Strategic Value Assessment of Kelun Biotech's Focus on HER2 ADC Drug Resistance Scenarios

#adc #her2_positive_breast_cancer #kelun_biotech #drug_approval #clinical_data #market_analysis #competitive_landscape #investment_analysis #drug_resistance #enhertu
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January 14, 2026

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Strategic Value Assessment of Kelun Biotech's Focus on HER2 ADC Drug Resistance Scenarios

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Strategic Value Assessment of Kelun Biotech’s Focus on HER2 ADC Drug Resistance Scenarios
I. Market Background and Competitive Landscape
1.1 Current Status of the HER2 ADC Track

HER2-targeted antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) have become one of the most commercially valuable and technologically challenging tracks in breast cancer treatment. Since the launch of Enhertu (trastuzumab deruxtecan, T-DXd), this drug has redefined the treatment standard for HER2-positive breast cancer with its breakthrough efficacy, and successfully expanded its indications to the HER2-low expression field, forming a comprehensive replacement trend for traditional HER2-targeted therapies [1][2].

From a global competitive landscape perspective, the current HER2 ADC market exhibits the following characteristics:

Drug Developer Toxin Type DAR Approved Indications Features
Enhertu
Daiichi Sankyo/AstraZeneca Dxd (Topoisomerase I inhibitor) 8 HER2+ breast cancer, HER2-low expression breast cancer, gastric cancer, lung cancer Leading efficacy, higher ILD risk
T-DM1
Roche DM1 (Microtubule inhibitor) 3.5 Second-line HER2+ breast cancer Good safety but limited efficacy
Disitamab Vedotin
Rongchang Biotech MMAE (Microtubule inhibitor) 4 Gastric cancer, urothelial carcinoma Differentiated indication layout
A166
Kelun Biotech Duo-5 (MMAF derivative) 2 Second-line HER2+ breast cancer Potentially optimal safety
1.2 Competitive Barriers and Treatment Limitations of Enhertu

Enhertu has established significant advantages in clinical efficacy through its unique molecular design (high DAR value of 8, potent topoisomerase I inhibitor Dxd, and prominent bystander effect). In the DESTINY-Breast03 study, Enhertu demonstrated overwhelming efficacy advantages over T-DM1, with a median PFS of 28.8 months, becoming the new standard for second-line treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer [1].

However, Enhertu still faces several challenges in clinical application:

  • Safety Risks
    : The incidence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) is approximately 2.9%-8.8%, and some patients discontinue treatment due to severe toxicity [3][4]
  • Drug Resistance Issue
    : With the popularization of Enhertu in first-line treatment, treatment options after resistance will become an increasingly urgent clinical need
  • Administration Restrictions
    : Has embryonic toxicity, contraindicated in pregnant patients

II. Product Analysis of Kelun Biotech’s A166
2.1 Molecular Design and Differentiated Advantages

Kelun Biotech’s Botuzumab (A166, trade name: Shutailai®) was approved for marketing by China’s NMPA on October 17, 2025, as the first domestic ADC drug approved for second-line treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer [5][6].

Molecular Design Features:

Component A166 Design Comparison with Enhertu
Antibody
Trastuzumab Identical
Toxin
Duo-5 (MMAF derivative, microtubule inhibitor) Enhertu uses Dxd (topoisomerase I inhibitor)
Linker
Protease-cleavable linker Both are cleavable designs
DAR
2 Enhertu is 8
Conjugation Method
Random lysine conjugation Site-specific cysteine conjugation

A166 adopts a

moderate payload toxicity - low DAR design
strategy, which stands in sharp contrast to Enhertu’s high DAR, potent toxin strategy. The core consideration behind this design trade-off is balancing efficacy and safety [3][4].

2.2 Interpretation of Key Clinical Data

Results of Phase III KL166-III-06 Study (Head-to-Head vs T-DM1):

Efficacy Endpoint A166 T-DM1 Magnitude of Advantage
Median PFS
11.1 months
4.4 months 152% increase
Objective Response Rate (ORR)
76.9%
53.0% 23.9 percentage points increase
Complete Response Rate Approximately 2.5% 0% -

This study enrolled patients with HER2-positive unresectable or metastatic breast cancer who had previously received trastuzumab and taxane-based therapy. The results showed that A166 achieved improvements in the primary endpoint PFS that were both statistically and clinically significant [5][6].

Phase I Dose Expansion Study Data:

In heavily pretreated HER2+ breast cancer patients (4.8mg/kg dose group):

  • ORR reached
    73.9%
  • Median PFS was
    12.3 months
  • Disease Control Rate (DCR) was 100%

Notably, the median number of prior anti-HER2 treatment lines for enrolled patients reached

4 lines
, 94.8% received HER2-targeted TKI therapy, and 20.7% received other HER2-ADC therapies, indicating that A166 still demonstrates strong efficacy in later-line patients [7][8].

2.3 Safety Advantages

The most prominent differentiated advantage of A166 lies in its

potentially optimal safety profile
:

Safety Endpoint A166 Enhertu SHR-A1811
Grade ≥3 Adverse Reactions
49.4%
67.5% 50%
Serious Adverse Reactions
4.9%
37.5% -
Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD)
0%
2.9%-8.8% -
Discontinuation Due to Adverse Reactions
5.7%
12.5% -

A 0% ILD incidence is A166’s most notable safety advantage, which holds important clinical significance for breast cancer patients requiring long-term treatment [3][4][7].


III. Strategic Value of HER2 ADC Drug Resistance Scenarios
3.1 Drug Resistance Mechanisms and Clinical Needs

As Enhertu has become the standard second-line treatment for HER2-positive breast cancer globally, treatment options after resistance are becoming an increasingly urgent unmet clinical need. According to the latest research presented at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, ADC resistance mechanisms mainly include [9]:

Main Resistance Mechanisms:

  1. High Expression of Drug Efflux Transporters
    : High expression of ABCB1 and ABCC1 is significantly associated with shorter treatment duration of T-DXd
  2. Changes in Target Antigen Expression
    : Changes in ERBB2 amplification status affect ADC efficacy
  3. Alterations in Intracellular Drug Metabolic Pathways
    : Lysosomal dysfunction, internalization impairment

Key Study Data:

  • Median time to next treatment (TTNT) for ERBB2-amplified patients receiving T-DXd reached 22.5 months
  • Median TTNT for the non-amplified group was only 6.4 months
  • Patients with high ABCB1 expression had a 30% increased risk of death (HR=1.30, p=0.002)
3.2 Kelun Biotech’s Layout in Drug Resistance Scenarios

In the face of Enhertu’s strong advancement in first-line therapies, Kelun Biotech has adopted a differentiated strategy of

“Not Competing in First-Line, Focusing on Drug Resistance Scenarios”
[1][2]:

Specific Layout Includes:

  1. Clear Indication Positioning
    : Position A166 as a “backup option” after resistance to mainstream drugs such as Enhertu
  2. Launch Specialized Clinical Studies
    : An open-label, multi-center Phase II clinical study has been initiated for HER2+ unresectable or metastatic breast cancer patients who have received topoisomerase inhibitor ADC therapy
  3. Multi-Cancer Expansion
    : In addition to breast cancer, indications for gastric cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, etc., are under development

This strategic layout reflects Kelun Biotech’s

accurate judgment
of the competitive landscape in the HER2 ADC track:

  • In the first-line market where Enhertu has built strong barriers, the commercial certainty of direct competition is low
  • Differentiated resistance backup scenarios have clearer commercial value
  • Form a synergistic rather than competitive market pattern with its own and similar products

IV. Scientific Basis for A166 as a Backup Option to Enhertu
4.1 Differentiated Mechanism of Action

The fundamental difference between A166 and Enhertu in the selection of cytotoxic drugs provides a theoretical basis for overcoming drug resistance:

Feature A166 (MMAF) Enhertu (Dxd)
Drug Type
Microtubule inhibitor Topoisomerase I inhibitor
Mechanism of Action
Inhibits microtubule polymerization, blocks mitosis Induces DNA double-strand breaks
Cross-Resistance Risk
Theoretically low Theoretically low
Bystander Effect
Exists Potent

According to research, due to different mechanisms of action, the

cross-resistance rate between different cytotoxic drugs is low
, which provides scientific support for the application of A166 after Enhertu resistance [9].

4.2 Clinical Value of Safety Advantages

A166’s zero ILD incidence is particularly important for patients requiring subsequent treatment:

  • Enhertu treatment-related ILD risk limits patients’ long-term medication and treatment options
  • A166’s safety profile makes it more suitable as a subsequent treatment option
  • A lower rate of serious adverse reactions helps maintain patients’ quality of life
4.3 Support from Early Clinical Data

The Phase I study included 20.7% of patients who had previously received HER2-ADC therapy, and A166 still demonstrated efficacy in this subgroup, suggesting its application potential in ADC-pretreated patients [7][8].


V. Commercial Prospects and Competitive Positioning
5.1 Market Opportunity Assessment

Market Size of HER2 ADC Drug Resistance Treatment:

  • With the popularization of Enhertu globally, the post-resistance treatment market will continue to expand
  • The base of HER2-positive breast cancer patients is stable, with approximately 200,000 new cases each year
  • HER2-positive breast cancer patients in China account for approximately 20%-25% of all breast cancer patients

Competitive Landscape Analysis:

Enterprise Product Strategic Positioning Differentiated Advantage
Kelun Biotech A166 Focus on drug resistance scenarios Zero ILD safety
Baili Tianheng T-Bren Directly compete with Enhertu Cross-cancer layout
Rongchang Biotech Disitamab Vedotin Differentiated indications Gastric cancer, urothelial carcinoma
Hengrui Medicine SHR-A1811 Multi-indication expansion Combination regimen development
5.2 Value of International Cooperation

Kelun Biotech has reached a strategic cooperation with Merck, licensing SKB264 (global rights excluding Greater China), SKB315 (global rights), and seven preclinical ADC assets to Merck, with a total transaction value of up to

$11.8 billion
[3][4]. This cooperation not only validates the technological value of Kelun Biotech’s ADC platform but also lays a foundation for the international development of A166.

5.3 Strategic Synergy Effects

Kelun Biotech’s ADC pipeline layout exhibits good synergy:

  • SKB264
    (TROP2 ADC): Targets indications such as TNBC, NSCLC, etc.
  • A166
    (HER2 ADC): Focuses on breast cancer drug resistance scenarios
  • SKB315
    (CLDN18.2 ADC): Targets solid tumors such as gastric cancer

A multi-target layout can form synergies in treatment strategies, providing sequential treatment options for patients.


VI. Risk Factor Assessment
6.1 Clinical Risks
  • Phase II Clinical Results in Drug Resistance Scenarios
    : Still need verification from Phase III studies with larger sample sizes
  • Long-Term Safety Data
    : Need longer-term follow-up data
  • Biomarker Screening
    : How to accurately identify the patient population that can benefit most from A166
6.2 Competitive Risks
  • Enhertu Indication Advancement
    : If Enhertu achieves breakthroughs in neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy, the characteristics of drug-resistant populations may change
  • Competition from Other ADCs
    : Competitive pressure from products such as Hengrui’s SHR-A1811 and Baili Tianheng’s T-Bren
  • Technology Iteration Risk
    : Potential impact from new ADC technologies (such as bispecific antibody ADCs)
6.3 Commercial Risks
  • Medical Insurance Negotiation Pressure
    : Balancing innovative drug pricing and medical insurance access
  • Production Capacity Supply
    : Complexity of ADC drug production
  • Academic Promotion
    : Clinical concept education for drug resistance scenarios

VII. Conclusions and Investment Recommendations
7.1 Core Conclusions

Based on the above analysis, Kelun Biotech’s focus on HER2 ADC drug resistance scenarios has the following strategic value:

Dimension Assessment Rating
Scientific Basis
Mechanistic differences between MMAF and Dxd, theoretically avoid cross-resistance ★★★★☆
Clinical Data
Excellent Phase III head-to-head data, significant safety advantages ★★★★★
Strategic Positioning
Clear differentiated competition strategy, avoids direct conflict with Enhertu ★★★★★
Market Space
Real and continuously growing demand for drug resistance treatment ★★★★☆
Execution Capability
Merck cooperation validates platform value, leading R&D progress ★★★★★
7.2 Feasibility of A166 as a Backup Option to Enhertu

Conclusion: Kelun Biotech’s A166 has the potential to be an effective backup option to Enhertu, but the following conditions need to be met:

  1. Complete Registration Clinical Studies in Drug Resistance Scenarios
    : Need to initiate and complete Phase III clinical studies for ADC-pretreated patients
  2. Establish an Accurate Patient Stratification System
    : Screen the most beneficial population based on biomarkers (such as ABCB1 expression, ERBB2 amplification status)
  3. Form a Clear Clinical Positioning
    : Establish the status of “A166 after Enhertu progression” in treatment guidelines
  4. Continuous Academic Promotion
    : Establish clinical awareness through clinical data release and academic cooperation
7.3 Investment Value Judgment

Kelun Biotech’s “focus on drug resistance scenarios” strategy reflects a profound understanding of the competitive landscape of China’s innovative drugs. In the first-line market where Enhertu has established strong barriers, this

differentiated positioning strategy
has high commercial certainty. A166’s zero ILD safety profile provides a unique value proposition for its application in drug resistance scenarios.

It is recommended to pay attention to the following catalysts:

  • Release of Phase II/III clinical data in drug resistance scenarios
  • Results of medical insurance negotiations
  • Progress of international clinical studies
  • Follow-up advancement of cooperation with Merck

References

[1] China Pharmaceutical Innovation and Research Development Association - HER2 ADC Track: Survival of Domestic Players? (https://www.phirda.com/artilce_41347.html)

[2] Tencent News - HER2 ADC Track: Survival of Domestic Players? (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260112A01DTT00)

[3] SPD Bank International - Kelun Biotech (6990.HK): ADC Leader on the Verge of Commercialization, Promising Future (https://www.spdbi.com/)

[4] Industrial Securities - ADC Pioneer Goes Global, Innovative Platform Has Great Potential (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202312041613222468_1.pdf)

[5] Smart Pharma Circle - Kelun Biotech’s Innovative Drug Botuzumab Approved (https://synapse.zhihuiya.com/blog/)

[6] Cancer-Free Home - Another Domestic HER2 ADC New Drug Approved (https://m.tumormed.com/aizhengzhiliao/7814.html)

[7] Kelun Biotech Official Website - News Center (http://www.kelun-biotech.com/newsCenter.aspx)

[8] NPJ Breast Cancer - Phase I study of A166 (https://www.nature.com/)

[9] 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting - ADC Continues to Lead Cancer Treatment (https://zh.tri-apex.com/info/insight/720.html)


Report Compiled by: Jinling AI Financial Analysis Team
Data Cut-Off Date: January 14, 2026

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Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.