Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on China's Record Trade Surplus and Investment Implications

Now I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

---

According to the latest data, China’s trade surplus hit a record high in 2025, reaching a cumulative

in the first 11 months, up 21.7% year-on-year, and is expected to exceed the $1.2 trillion mark for the full year [1][2]. This achievement comes against the backdrop of escalating Sino-U.S. trade frictions – the U.S. tariff on Chinese goods has gradually risen from 10% at the start of 2025 to [3].

China proactively adjusted its export strategy, taking the “Belt and Road” Initiative as the core focus for expanding overseas markets. Data shows that the proportion of U.S. imports from China has dropped to the lowest level for the same period since 2017 (only 9.4% in the first half of 2025), while the proportion of exports to “Belt and Road” co-construction countries has steadily risen to the second-highest level for the same period in history [4]. This structural transformation has significantly reduced China’s risk of dependence on a single market.

Goldman Sachs research shows that products manufactured in China are

than those in other regions [5]. Analyzing from the volume dimension of export products, exports of products accounting for about 80% of China’s total exports (automobiles, metals, chemicals, machinery and equipment, electronic equipment, etc.) have achieved year-on-year growth of 5% to 15%, showing broad resilience [5].

From January to November 2025, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products reached RMB 14.89 trillion, accounting for

of total commodity exports, up 8.8% year-on-year, driving total commodity exports up 5.2 percentage points [5]. Exports of the “New Three” products – new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and semiconductors – continued to maintain rapid growth.

Time Node	Tariff Measures
January 2025	Donald Trump assumes office as President
March 3, 2025	Tariffs on Chinese goods raised from 10% to 20% [3]
April 2, 2025	Announces “reciprocal tariffs”, imposing a 10% global tariff hike [3]
April 11, 2025	Tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 145% [3]
October 2025	China and the U.S. reach a trade “truce” agreement, tariffs fall back to 30.8% [6]
January 2026	Threatens to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran [7]

: Some U.S. retailers (such as Walmart, Costco) have demanded significant price cuts from Chinese suppliers [3]; some multinational enterprises have suspended deliveries to the U.S.

: U.S. consumers’ dependence on Chinese goods cannot be replaced in the short term, and the high tariff costs are mainly borne by U.S. importers and consumers [3].

On January 2, 2026, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar broke through

for the first time in two and a half years; on December 25, it further broke through the mark, hitting a new high since May 2023 [8]. For the full year of 2025, the RMB appreciated by approximately against the U.S. dollar [9].

1. Support from Trade Surplus
   : The record-high surplus provides a solid foundation for the RMB
2. Weakening U.S. Dollar
   : Three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 drove the U.S. Dollar Index down
   9.41%
   for the full year [10]
3. Corporate Settlement Wave
   : Export enterprises concentrated on settling foreign exchange at the end of the year to cope with year-end financial arrangements [11]
4. Foreign Capital Inflows
   : In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion [9]

Historical data shows that the expansion of trade surplus and RMB appreciation are not simply linearly related. In 2014, 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2024, there were cases where “surplus increased while the RMB depreciated” [12]. Exchange rate trends are affected by multiple factors, including differences in Sino-U.S. monetary policies, variations in economic cycles, and geopolitics.

Sector Type	Benefit Logic	Representative Industries
Cost-Import Type	Reduced overseas procurement costs for raw materials, improving gross profit margins	Paper, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals [13]
Foreign Debt Liability Type	Increased exchange gains from U.S. dollar-denominated liabilities	Airlines (aircraft leasing liabilities), real estate [13]
Asset Revaluation Type	Rising attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets	Banks, insurance, financial institutions [11]
Consumption Upgrade Type	Improved purchasing power of the public	Duty-free, tourism, education [13]

• Export-Oriented Industries
  : Enterprises with high export proportions such as home appliances, electronics, textiles and apparel, and machinery may face pressure from reduced international competitiveness of their products [14]
• High-Valued Growth Stocks
  : If the RMB appreciates too quickly, it may trigger market concerns about the profitability of export enterprises

1. Short-Term Strategy (3-6 months)
   : Focus on “muscle memory” beneficiary sectors such as aviation, paper, and gas [13]
2. Mid-Term Strategy (6-12 months)
   : Lay out structural opportunities such as import substitution and high-end manufacturing
3. Long-Term Perspective
   : Focus on industrial chain enterprises going overseas under the “Belt and Road” theme, including automobiles, machinery and equipment, electronic communications, etc. [4]

• RMB Exchange Rate
  : Monitor the stability of the 7.0 mark and the subsequent appreciation pace
• Progress of China-U.S. Negotiations
  : Monitor the possible visit to China in April 2026 and the expectation of signing a comprehensive trade agreement [7]
• Corporate Settlement Data
  : Changes in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus reflect the confidence of export enterprises
• Changes in Export Structure
  : Proportion of mechanical and electrical products, export growth rate of high-tech products

1. Policy Uncertainty
   : Trump’s volatile tariff threats may disrupt market expectations at any time [15]
2. Exchange Rate Fluctuation Risk
   : Excessively rapid appreciation may weaken export competitiveness and trigger central bank intervention
3. Geopolitical Risk
   : Geopolitical games such as Iran trade sanctions and rare earth controls may escalate
4. Global Economic Recession
   : If the U.S. economy slows more than expected, it may affect external demand

---

[1] 36Kr - “RMB Breaks 7: How to Spend Most Cost-Effectively on Cross-Border Consumption” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3626326791767304)
[2] Wall Street Journal - China 2025 Trade Surplus Chart Data
[3] Wikipedia - “Tariffs in Trump’s Second Term” (https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/特朗普第二届任期关税)
[4] Securities Times - “Tariff Diversion Cannot Stop China’s Overseas Expansion Trend” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3542524.html)
[5] Goldman Sachs Flash Interview - “Bullish on China: Decoding Economic Rebalancing” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-13/doc-inhheixp9075602.shtml)
[6] Guancha.cn - “U.S. Scholar: I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If Trump Suddenly Announces China Is Exempt from Tariffs” (https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2026_01_14_803754.shtml)
[7] Sina Finance - “Wu Xinbo: Trump Doesn’t Dare to Impose 25% Tariffs on China, Otherwise He’ll Face Chinese Retaliation” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-14/doc-inhhfrsv5191172.shtml)
[8] Yangcheng Evening News Online - “Strong Appreciation! Offshore RMB Recovers 7.0” (https://news.ycwb.com/ikinvjitim/content_53873953.htm)
[9] Caijing.com - Analysis of V-Shaped Reversal of RMB Exchange Rate
[10] NetEase - “China’s Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves Continue to Hit New Highs” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIO99ATA0556DLOT.html)
[11] Cailianshe - “Resonance of Trade Surplus + Weakening U.S. Dollar: How Moderate RMB Appreciation Reshapes Hong Kong Stock Investment Logic” (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2238664)
[12] Dahe Cube - “Guan Tao: RMB Exchange Rate, Trade Surplus and China’s Economic Rebalancing” (https://app.dahecube.com/nweb/pc/article.html?artid=259305)
[13] Eastmoney - “Sorting Out RMB ‘Appreciation Concept’ Through Three Clues” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512253602000017.html)
[14] 21st Century Business Herald - Goldman Sachs Interview Transcript
[15] Storm Media - “Xie Jinfang Column: China Shock 2.0” (https://www.storm.mg/article/11093967)

---

: This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. Jinling AI will continue to track the progress of Sino-U.S. trade frictions and RMB exchange rate trends, providing you with the latest market analysis.