Analysis of the Impact of Qwen App User Growth on Alibaba's AI Business Valuation

Based on the collected data, I will conduct a comprehensive analysis for you.

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According to the latest data, Qwen App has shown impressive growth momentum [1][2][3]:

Metric	Data	Industry Position
Downloads in First Week of Public Beta	10M+	Fastest-growing AI application in history
MAU in 23 Days of Public Beta	30M	Fastest growth rate globally
MAU in 30 Days of Public Beta	40M	Top tier globally
Current MAU	~100M	First echelon in China
Qwen Model Downloads on Hugging Face	70M+	One of the most popular open-source models globally

Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed stock (9988.HK) has performed strongly driven by the AI theme [0]:

Time Horizon	Growth	Remarks
Past 6 Months	+60.13%	AI valuation re-rating
Past 12 Months	+115.49%	Outperformed the broader market significantly
YTD	+12.95%	Sustained upward trend

: $168.30 | : $3.12 Trillion | : 22.63x

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Valuation Dimension	Impact Analysis	Premium Contribution
User Scale	Joined the first echelon of domestic AI applications (second only to Doubao’s 155 million MAU)	+3-5%
Growth Rate	Surpassed 40 million MAU in 30 days of public beta, leading globally in growth rate	+2-3%
Model Recognition	Qwen has exceeded 70 million global downloads, verifying technical strength	+2-4%
Total Premium		Approximately 7-12%

• Stock Performance
  : Rose over 70% in the past year, with AI business as the core driver [2]
• Analyst Ratings
  : 87.5% of analysts gave a “Buy” rating [0]
• Target Price
  : The median institutional target price is approximately $180-225 [1]

Based on institutional valuation models [1]:

Business Segment	Valuation Method	Valuation Contribution per ADS
Taobao-Tmall Group	15x PE	$141.18
Cloud Intelligence Group	5x PS	$39.40
AI Business Premium	Driven by user growth	+$5-10
Total		$185-190

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Qwen App is building a diversified commercial monetization system [2][3]:

1. Self-operated AI E-commerce
   - Integrates with Taobao ecosystem, with the largest monetization potential
2. AI Shopping Guide Service
   - Precision recommendations based on user needs
3. AI Advertising and Marketing
   - Traffic monetization in non-e-commerce scenarios
4. AI Hardware Terminals
   - Terminal devices such as AIPCs and AI-enabled phones

• On December 9, 2025, the
  Qwen C-End Business Group
  was established, led by Wu Jia [3]
• Integrates businesses including Qwen App, Quark (150 million MAU), AI hardware, UC, and Shuqi
• Unified entry, enhanced “task execution” capabilities, and building an AI lifestyle portal

Challenge Factor	Specific Performance	Risk Level
User Retention	Nearly 60% of AI-native applications experienced user churn in Q3 [3]	High
Willingness to Pay	User ARPU potential to be verified	Medium
Competitive Pressure	ByteDance’s Doubao has exceeded 100 million DAU, with DeepSeek continuously catching up	High
Scenario Implementation	Needs to integrate high-frequency scenarios such as maps, food delivery, ticket booking, and office applications	Medium

Metric	Current Level	6-Month Target	12-Month Target
MAU	100M	120-150M	150-200M
DAU/MAU	~15%	18-20%	22-25%
Payment Conversion Rate	<1%	2-3%	5-8%
Average Monthly ARPU	¥2-3	¥5-8	¥10-15

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Product	MAU	Features	Alibaba’s Competitive Strategy
Doubao	155M	First AI application with over 100 million DAU	Differentiated positioning
Qwen	~100M	Fastest growth	Technology leadership
DeepSeek	~50M	Open-source breakthrough	Dual open-source and closed-source strategy
Ernie Bot	~5M	Slowing growth	Needs to catch up
Yuanbao	~30M	Tencent’s follow-up	Moderate pressure

Advantage Area	Specific Performance	Valuation Support
Open-Source Ecosystem	Qwen has exceeded 70 million global downloads	Technological discourse power
Enterprise Market	Largest large model call volume in China	High certainty of B-end monetization
Integration Capability	Dual entry points of Qwen + Quark	User synergy effect
Ecosystem Synergy	Linkage with Taobao, Amap, and Ele.me	Scenario advantages

Risk Type	Specific Content	Impact on Valuation
Investment Pressure	Increasing expenditures on AI, cloud, and instant retail	Short-term profit margin pressure
Intensified Competition	Continuous investment from ByteDance and Tencent	Market share volatility
Policy Risks	China-US relations, delisting of Chinese concept stocks	Valuation discount
Commercialization Delay	Fading user curiosity	Slowing growth

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1. 100 million MAU provides significant valuation support
   :
   • Manifested as a valuation premium of approximately 7-12%
   • Verified Alibaba’s technical strength and execution capability in the C-end AI market
   • Laid a user foundation for subsequent commercialization

2. Conversion to commercial value still needs to be observed
   :
   • User retention and payment conversion are the key
   • Initial commercialization results are expected to be seen within 6-12 months
   • Long-term success depends on AI e-commerce and scenario ecosystem synergy

3. Valuation center is expected to continue to rise
   :
   • AI business revenue share will increase (expected to reach 15-20% in FY2026)
   • Cloud Intelligence’s PS valuation multiple is expected to evolve from 5x to 8-10x
   • Overall target price: $180-225

Scenario	MAU Growth	Commercialization Progress	Valuation Change
Optimistic	150M+ MAU	Payment rate 5%+	+15-20%
Base Case	120M MAU	Payment rate 3%	Base case
Conservative	80M MAU	Payment rate <1%	-10-15%

• Current Rating
  : Buy (87.5% analyst consensus) [0]
• Target Price
  : $180-225
• Risk Warning
  : Capital expenditure higher than expected, commercialization progress falling short of expectations, risks from China-US relations

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[0] Jinling API Data - Alibaba Company Profile and Real-Time Quotes
[1] Eastmoney - Research Report “AI Industry Transformation Drives Alibaba’s Valuation Re-rating” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202503101644228386_1.pdf)
[2] Yicai Global - “Qwen Surpasses 10 Million Downloads in One Week, Alibaba Opens the Door to the ‘Ultimate Entry Point of the AI Era’” (https://www.yicai.com/news/102926019.html)
[3] The Paper - “Alibaba’s Qwen Completes One Month of Public Beta, Has It Seized the Entry Point of the AI Era?” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32189024)
[4] Sina Finance - “Doubao’s DAU Surpasses 100 Million, Qwen and Yuanbao Catch Up” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-13/doc-inhhcxit9180312.shtml)