Investment Analysis Report on Cross-Border E-Commerce and the "New Three Categories" Industry Chain

Based on the abundant information collected, I will compile a systematic and comprehensive investment analysis report on cross-border e-commerce and the “New Three Categories” industry chain.

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According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, China’s cross-border e-commerce import and export scale reached 2.75 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a 69.7% increase compared to 2020, demonstrating strong growth resilience [1]. This growth rate is significantly higher than the overall foreign trade growth level, reflecting the strategic status of cross-border e-commerce as a new driving force for foreign trade. During the same period, the import and export of high-tech products grew at an average annual rate of 7.9%, with the year-on-year growth rate further accelerating to 11.4% in 2025, contributing nearly 60% to the overall foreign trade growth [1].

From a policy perspective, the country continues to promote the construction of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, optimize customs clearance facilitation measures, and strengthen the layout of overseas warehouses, creating a favorable environment for the development of the industry. From January to November 2025, the total trade volume between China and ASEAN reached 6.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, of which exports to ASEAN amounted to 4.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2]. The rapid growth of the Southeast Asian market provides broad development space for China’s cross-border e-commerce enterprises.

In 2025, the import and export value of cross-border e-commerce in Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone reached 34.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.28%, doubling compared to 2023, and ranking first in Henan Province [3]. By the end of 2025, 885 cross-border e-commerce-related enterprises in the zone have formed a complete industry chain, with well-known platforms such as Tmall Global and SHEIN operating regularly, indicating that the cluster effect of the cross-border e-commerce industry is increasingly prominent.

Products of the “New Three Categories” — electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries — have become new calling cards of Made-in-China going global. In 2025, the export scale of the “New Three Categories” neared 1.3 trillion yuan, representing a 3.5-fold increase compared to 2020 [1]. This transformation profoundly reflects the optimization and upgrading of China’s foreign trade structure, shifting from the traditional ‘Old Three Categories’ such as textiles, furniture, and home appliances to high-tech, high-value-added products.

Market diversification is another prominent feature of the growth of the “New Three Categories”. Demand for China’s new energy products in markets such as Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America continues to rise, effectively hedging against the risk of single market fluctuations. Meanwhile, China has maintained its position as ASEAN’s largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, and ASEAN has been China’s largest trading partner for 5 consecutive years, forming a closely linked economic and trade community [2].

As a leading domestic express delivery and logistics enterprise, SF Holding has shown strong growth momentum in the cross-border e-commerce logistics sector. In the third quarter of 2025, the company’s international express and cross-border e-commerce logistics business revenue increased by 27% year-on-year, accelerating further compared to the first half of the year [4]. The rapid growth of international business benefits from the company’s continuous overseas network layout over the years. To date, SF has deployed nearly 40 overseas warehouses in the Asia-Pacific region, covering an area of nearly 300,000 square meters, including various types such as general warehouses, e-commerce warehouses, VMI warehouses, bonded warehouses, and constant temperature warehouses [4].

In the Southeast Asian market, SF has over 10,000 self-operated delivery personnel, more than 20 regional transit hubs, and over 780 self-operated outlets. It also covers more than 20 customs clearance ports and holds self-owned customs clearance qualifications in multiple countries. Its cross-border and local service capabilities cover 18 country markets in Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia, and Oceania, serving a total of over 9,000 enterprise customers [4].

From a financial perspective, in the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s express delivery and logistics revenue increased by 14.4% year-on-year, and the revenue of high-end time-sensitive products accelerated for two consecutive quarters; by the end of the period, the number of active monthly settlement customers exceeded 2.4 million, and individual members exceeded 780 million, with continuous enhancement of customer stickiness [4]. SF was secondary-listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2025, raising over HK$40 billion, injecting sufficient capital momentum into overseas market expansion.

:

• International business is in a high-growth period, with a 27% year-on-year increase in the third quarter
• Overseas warehouse network layout is increasingly improved, forming strong service capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region
• A+H dual-platform capital structure enhances global financing capabilities
• Revenue of high-end time-sensitive products is accelerating, and profit quality continues to improve

:

• Operating cash flow is under pressure, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.91% in the first three quarters of 2025
• Asset-liability ratio is 49.99%, higher than the industry average
• Sales expense ratio is rising, and profit fluctuations require attention

As a delivery giant originating from Southeast Asia, J&T Express’s stock price rose by 60% in 2025, with the latest market value exceeding HK$100 billion [5]. The company’s founder, Li Jie, a native of Sichuan, saw his personal wealth increase to 9.5 billion yuan in the 2025 Hurun Rich List. Currently, J&T has expanded its reach to 13 countries worldwide, with rapid growth in business volume.

In the Southeast Asian market, J&T’s market share increased from approximately 30% in 2024 to 32.8% in 2025, maintaining its leading market position [5]. In 2025, the growth rate of parcel volume in Southeast Asia soared to nearly 70% from the previous maximum of no more than 40%, demonstrating strong market competitiveness. The company contributes two-thirds of its profits with less than a quarter of its business volume in Southeast Asia, and its profitability is far higher than that of its domestic business.

At the end of December 2025, J&T announced its plan to acquire two subsidiaries, Jet Global and JNT Express KSA, involving a total amount of up to US$1.056 billion, mainly used for infrastructure investment in the Middle East and Latin American markets [5]. The management clearly stated that when conditions mature in the future, the European and American markets are expected to become important strategic regions for the company.

:

• Stable leading position in the Southeast Asian market, with continuous market share growth
• Strong profitability of overseas business, with net profit increasing by 147.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year
• Accelerated layout in emerging markets (South America, Middle East), with broad growth space
• Outstanding cost control capability, maintaining a cost reduction of 5%-10% per year

:

• Mexico has imposed tariff increases on Chinese cross-border e-commerce, affecting parcel volume in Mexico in the short term
• Free shipping policies on platforms compress logistics costs and squeeze profit margins
• An increasing number of Chinese delivery companies are entering Southeast Asia, intensifying market competition

A-share cross-border e-commerce concept stocks mainly include enterprises such as Transborder E-Commerce Co., Ltd., Focus Technology Co., Ltd., Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd., NetSun Technology Co., Ltd., and Eastern Peak Supply Chain Co., Ltd. From the perspective of industry structure, cross-border e-commerce platforms are undergoing profound changes. In 2025, the pattern of ‘Amazon + Four Little Dragons’ began to change: after resolving the ‘sell or ban’ crisis in the US, TikTok’s e-commerce business accelerated its breakthrough; Temu responded flexibly to changes in trade policies; SHEIN attempted to upgrade its global brand image; AliExpress completely shifted to focusing on brand sellers [6].

For A-share investors, investment in cross-border e-commerce concept stocks requires distinguishing between platform-type enterprises and supply chain service enterprises. Platform-type enterprises directly benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce transaction volume, but face competition pressure from international giants; supply chain service enterprises (such as logistics, payment, and ERP service providers) benefit from the overall expansion of the industry, with a relatively stable competitive landscape.

:

• Cross-border e-commerce ERP SaaS service providers: Benefiting from the increasing demand for refined operation by sellers
• Cross-border payment service providers: Benefiting from the expansion of cross-border transaction scale and stable fees
• Cross-border logistics and warehousing enterprises: Benefiting from the upsurge in overseas warehouse construction

After more than two years of in-depth adjustment, the lithium battery industry pressed the “recovery button” in 2025, ushering in a dawn of upward breakthrough. Symbolic signals include: the expansion of energy storage market orders driving a comprehensive rebound in lithium battery material prices and production scheduling, rapid de-stocking of the industry chain, improved performance of leading companies, and an overall increase in sector prosperity [7].

: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate once fell below 60,000 yuan/ton in June 2025, then entered a volatile upward channel; in November, the price exceeded the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with an increase of over 60% in less than half a year [7]. On January 8, 2026, the MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate price was reported at 140,300 yuan/ton. Leading enterprises are optimistic about the growth of lithium carbonate demand in 2026. Li Liangbin, Chairman of Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., expects that the demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate will grow by 30% in 2026, and supply and demand will be basically balanced [7].

: In 2025, investment in the battery new energy industry chain shifted from ‘large-scale and rapid expansion’ to ‘precision layout’. The number of billion-level projects dropped from 29 in 2023 to 10 in 2024, and further to 7 in 2025 [8]. The total investment in the battery sector was approximately 221.727 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 370.55 billion yuan in 2023, but the number of projects did not decrease, indicating that the average investment per project is becoming smaller, and the investment direction is more precise [8].

: In 2025, the total investment in the solid-state battery sector was approximately 31.018 billion yuan, with 11 projects exceeding 1 billion yuan in investment [8]. Enterprises such as CATL, BYD Co., Ltd., Qingtao Energy Development Co., Ltd., and Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. are accelerating the mass production process of semi-solid-state/solid-state batteries. Eight ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly identified solid-state batteries as a key research direction, supported the solidification development of lithium batteries and sodium batteries, and proposed to build 3-5 global leading enterprises by 2027 [8].

:

• In 2025, 8 new battery projects were invested and constructed in Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Guizhou and other regions
• The first overseas plant in Thuringia, Germany has achieved profitability, and the Hungarian plant is progressing as planned
• Listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in May 2025, raising over HK$40 billion, setting a record for the largest IPO in Hong Kong stocks in the year
• Stable profit per Wh at 0.09-0.12 yuan, far exceeding the 0.02 yuan level of second-tier manufacturers

:

• The Malaysian plant invested approximately 8.654 billion yuan, radiating the Southeast Asian market
• The “Longquan No. 2” all-solid-state battery was successfully rolled off the production line in September 2025
• R&D investment continues to increase, with R&D expenses remaining at a high level in the first three quarters

:

• Jinshi all-solid-state batteries have achieved pilot line implementation and internal loading road tests
• Promoting the design work of a 2GWh mass production line
• Facing pressure of high asset-liability ratio (above 70%)

:

• Prioritize allocation of leading enterprises to enjoy the dividends of industry recovery
• Focus on targets with leading layout in the solid-state battery industry chain
• Focus on enterprises with improved overseas capacity layout to avoid trade barrier risks

In 2025, the photovoltaic industry experienced profound changes from policy upheaval to pattern restructuring. The issuance of Document 136 at the beginning of the year clarified the direction of full marketization of incremental new energy grid-connected electricity prices. After the vigorous installation boom in the first half of the year, the industry entered a difficult adjustment period in the second half [9].

: On July 3, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology convened 14 leading photovoltaic enterprises including LONGi, Tongwei, and Trina to sign a production capacity self-discipline agreement, requiring comprehensive management of low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry [9]. Since the second half of the year, product prices in all links of the photovoltaic industry chain have continued to recover, component prices have rebounded from the bottom, and corporate profitability has gradually improved.

: On October 30, 2025, Sungrow’s total market value officially exceeded 400 billion yuan, becoming the enterprise with the highest market value in the photovoltaic industry [9]. In the first three quarters, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities reached 9.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of over 1100%, delivering the strongest financial report since its listing. The company subsequently announced its plan to launch a Hong Kong IPO, expected to become another new energy giant listed on both A-share and Hong Kong stock markets.

: In September 2025, LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar reached a global settlement, and in November, JA Solar and Chint New Energy also reached a settlement [9]. The settlement of the four leading component enterprises indicates that the era of bitter patent wars in the photovoltaic industry is coming to an end, which is conducive to the industry focusing on developing its main business and expanding overseas markets.

:

• Global leader in photovoltaic inverters, with market value exceeding 400 billion yuan
• Spanning both photovoltaic and energy storage tracks, with high-speed growth in energy storage business
• Net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters reached 9.914 billion yuan, with excellent profit quality
• Improved overseas market layout, benefiting from global photovoltaic demand growth

:

• Leading component enterprise, with market value of approximately over 160 billion yuan
• Officially entered the energy storage track in 2025, improving its business layout
• After reaching a settlement with JinkoSolar, patent risks are significantly reduced
• Improved overseas capacity layout such as the Thailand plant

:

• Dual leader in silicon materials and cells, with vertical integration layout
• Market value of approximately over 110 billion yuan
• Actively expanded overseas markets in 2025, signing multiple component supply agreements
• Obvious cost advantage in silicon materials, with guaranteed profitability

(as of December 31, 2025):

Weight Rank	Company	Business Segment
1	TBEA Co., Ltd.	Transformers, inverters
2	LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd.	Wafers, components
3	Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd.	Inverters, energy storage
4	TCL Technology Group Corporation	Wafers, components
5	Tongwei Co., Ltd.	Silicon materials, cells
6	Maxwave Co., Ltd.	Battery equipment
7	Deye Co., Ltd.	Inverters
8	Chint Group Corporation	Components, power stations
9	TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co., Ltd.	Wafers
10	Jiejia Weichuang Co., Ltd.	Equipment

:

• Focus on high-growth sub-tracks such as inverters and energy storage
• Focus on enterprises with improved overseas capacity layout and strong ability to avoid trade barriers
• Focus on the layout of new technology directions such as solid-state batteries

Energy storage has taken over from power batteries as the main driving force for capacity expansion in the battery new energy industry chain. The release of the “Action Plan for High-Quality Development of New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry” in 2025 provided clear guidance for the development of the industry. Eight ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly identified solid-state batteries as a key research direction, supporting the solidification development of lithium batteries and sodium batteries [8].

From the perspective of investment direction, investment in the energy storage sector in 2025 showed several characteristics:

• The investment amount of individual projects tends to be reasonable, shifting from pursuing billion-level large projects to precision layout
• Investment in new technology directions such as sodium-ion batteries and flow batteries increased
• Investment enthusiasm in downstream links such as energy storage system integration and operation and maintenance services rose
• New formats such as virtual power plants and demand response began to attract attention

:

• Sungrow: Global leading shipment volume of energy storage systems
• CATL: Leading energy storage battery technology, with improved capacity layout
• BYD: Strong synergistic effect between energy storage business and new energy vehicles
• Solis Technologies Co., Ltd., Deye Co., Ltd.: Leading enterprises in energy storage inverters sub-sector

:

1. Continuous Release of Policy Dividends
   : Expansion of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, continuous increase in support policies for overseas warehouse construction
2. Increasing Penetration Rate of Overseas E-Commerce
   : Rapid development of e-commerce in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America
3. China’s Supply Chain Advantages
   : Sound manufacturing foundation, fast supply chain response speed
4. Compliance Trend
   : Increased industry threshold benefits leading enterprises with compliant operations

:

• Theme 1: Leading cross-border logistics enterprises (SF Holding, J&T Express)
• Theme 2: Cross-border e-commerce ERP/SaaS service providers
• Theme 3: Cross-border payment service providers
• Theme 4: Overseas warehouse construction and operation enterprises

:

• Intensified international trade frictions, changes in tariff policies
• Exchange rate fluctuations affect export competitiveness
• Stricter overseas supervision, higher data compliance requirements
• Intensified platform competition, squeezing profit margins of service providers

:

1. Industry Cycle Reversal
   : After in-depth adjustment, the lithium battery and photovoltaic industries entered the early recovery stage in 2025
2. Clear Policy Support
   : New energy is included in national strategic emerging industries, with continuous policy support
3. Accelerated Technological Iteration
   : New technologies such as solid-state batteries bring opportunities for industrial upgrading
4. Broad Overseas Markets
   : Under the global carbon neutrality goal, demand for new energy products continues to grow

:

• Theme 1: Leading lithium battery enterprises (CATL, EVE Energy) and material enterprises
• Theme 2: Leading photovoltaic inverter and energy storage enterprises (Sungrow)
• Theme 3: Solid-state battery industry chain (CATL, BYD and material enterprises)
• Theme 4: Energy storage system integration and operation

:

• International trade barriers: Policies such as EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and US Inflation Reduction Act have impacts
• Risk of overcapacity: Some links still face overcapacity pressure
• Technical route risk: Uncertainties exist in new technical routes such as solid-state batteries
• Fluctuations in raw material prices: Prices of raw materials such as lithium and silicon materials affect corporate profitability

:

• Focus on investment opportunities brought by the upward trend of lithium battery material prices
• Focus on profit improvement brought by the stabilization and rebound of photovoltaic component prices
• Focus on performance elasticity of cross-border e-commerce logistics during peak seasons

:

• Focus on the mass production process of solid-state batteries and industry chain opportunities
• Focus on investment opportunities brought by the explosive growth of the energy storage industry
• Focus on the leading premium after the optimization of the photovoltaic industry pattern

:

• Focus on industry changes brought by the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries
• Focus on the commercialization of next-generation photovoltaic technologies such as perovskite
• Focus on long-term growth brought by the global layout of cross-border e-commerce

The rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce and the surging exports of the “New Three Categories” are important symbols of the transformation and upgrading of China’s foreign trade, providing abundant investment opportunities for A-share investors. From the perspective of the industry chain:

In the

, SF Holding has strong investment value due to its improved international network layout and continuously growing international business; J&T Express, as a new force in cross-border logistics, has a stable leading position in the Southeast Asian market and accelerated layout in emerging markets,