Investment Value Analysis Report on Changshan Pharmaceuticals: Sustained Losses, Can the GLP-1 Concept Support High Valuation?

Based on the collected data, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis report on Changshan Pharmaceuticals, a GLP-1 weight-loss drug concept stock.

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Changshan Pharmaceuticals’ share price saw a significant surge in 2025, and it was hailed by the industry as the “top innovative drug stock of A-shares” in 2025. As of January 14, 2026, the company’s closing price was $59.16 per share (approximately RMB 430), with a market capitalization reaching RMB 54.37 billion [0].

Statistical Period	Gain
Full Year 2025	+197.89%
Past 1 Year	+213.51%
Past 3 Years	+945.23%
Past 5 Years	+967.87%

However, the valuation metrics supporting this high share price are worrying:

• Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
  : -180.29x (due to sustained losses)
• Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
  : 35.84x
• Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
  : 58.59x

From a technical analysis perspective, the current share price is in a

pattern, with technical indicators showing:

• The MACD indicator shows a death cross signal, indicating a short-term bearish trend
• The KDJ indicator is in the oversold zone
• Short-term support level is $57.53, and resistance level is $61.89 [0]

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Financial Indicator	2024	2023	Trend
Net Profit Attributable to Parent Companies	-RMB 249 million	-RMB 1.24 billion	Loss Narrowed
Operating Revenue	~RMB 940 million	~RMB 820 million	Slight Growth
ROE	-19.53%	-	Negative Return
Net Profit Margin	-32.50%	-	Severe Loss

1. Deteriorating Profitability
   : The company has posted annual losses for two consecutive years, with a loss of RMB 1.24 billion in 2023 and RMB 249 million in 2024 [1][2]
2. Tight Cash Flow
   : The latest free cash flow is -RMB 183 million, and operating cash flow has remained negative [0]
3. Insufficient Short-term Solvency
   : The current ratio is 0.87, and the quick ratio is only 0.31, putting the company under short-term debt repayment pressure [0]
4. High Debt Risk
   : Financial analysis shows the company’s debt risk rating is “High Risk” [0]

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Changshan Pharmaceuticals is a pharmaceutical company focused on heparin products:

• Revenue Composition
  : Approximately 87% comes from the heparin business (unfractionated heparin API, low-molecular-weight heparin API and preparations) [2]
• Industry Position
  : It is one of the few domestic enterprises with a complete heparin product industrial chain

1. Volume-Based Procurement Pressure
   : The 8th round of national centralized volume-based drug procurement has led to a sharp drop in the sales price of the company’s heparin preparations [1]
2. Core Product Impact
   : Low-molecular-weight heparin calcium injection was not included in the national volume-based procurement, leading to a sharp decline in sales in 2023 [1]
3. Market Adjustment Period
   : The heparin market has entered a cyclical adjustment, with prices under pressure

is the innovative drug deployed by the company:

• R&D History
  : The layout began in 2012, and it is a Class 1 innovative drug jointly developed by the company and ConjuChem LLC of the United States [1]
• Current Progress
  :
  • Indication for type 2 diabetes treatment: Marketing authorization application has been submitted, and it is currently in the professional review stage [1][2]
  • Weight loss indication: Approved to initiate clinical trials in June 2025, but the trials have not officially started yet [1]
• Product Positioning
  : Long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist (weekly formulation)

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GLP-1 drugs approved in China for obesity treatment include: Orlistat, Liraglutide, Benaglutide, Semaglutide, and Tirzepatide, among which 4 are GLP-1 drugs [1].

• Novo Nordisk’s “Nuoying” (semaglutide weight-loss formulation) was launched in China in November 2024 [3]
• Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide was officially launched in China in January 2025, covering both diabetes treatment and weight loss indications [1]
• There are over 51 GLP-1 drugs in R&D in China, among which 22 are human-derived long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonists [1]

1. Product Not Yet Commercialized
   : Ibennatide Injection is currently only in the marketing registration phase and has not been launched for sale [2]
2. Limited Clinical Data
   : The company has only released the Phase III clinical summary report for the type 2 diabetes indication, and there is no additional clinical data available for reference for the weight loss indication [3]
3. Fierce Market Competition
   : Competition in the GLP-1 track has become increasingly fierce, and latecomers need to present better clinical data to gain a competitive advantage [3]
4. Repeated Risk Warnings from the Company
   : Changshan Pharmaceuticals has issued multiple abnormal stock trading fluctuation announcements to “cool down” investor enthusiasm [2]

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1. Popularity of the GLP-1 Concept
   : The global weight-loss drug market is growing rapidly; Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide achieved global sales of $8.448 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 86% [1]
2. First-mover Advantage
   : The company began laying out GLP-1 R&D in 2012, making it one of the early domestic enterprises to enter this field
3. Expectations of Innovative Drug Transformation
   : The market expects Ibennatide to improve the company’s performance structure after its approval

• Current market capitalization is RMB 54.37 billion, but the company is in a state of sustained losses
• The 945% gain over the past 3 years far outpaces performance growth, with actual net profit in negative territory
• The P/S ratio is as high as 58.59x, meaning the market expects future revenue to grow dozens of times to match the current valuation

• There is significant uncertainty about Ibennatide’s launch timeline
• Even if approved, it will face fierce market competition
• The heparin business is unable to contribute significant profit growth under the pressure of volume-based procurement

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Changshan Pharmaceuticals’ share price surge is mainly driven by the GLP-1 concept, rather than fundamental improvements. The company has posted losses for two consecutive years, its core heparin business faces volume-based procurement pressure, and although Ibennatide has a certain first-mover advantage, it faces fierce market competition. From a valuation perspective, the current negative P/E ratio, P/B ratio as high as 35x, and the huge contrast between the RMB 54.37 billion market capitalization and annual operating revenue of less than RMB 1 billion all indicate that

.

1. Ibennatide’s launch progress may fall short of expectations
2. Even if launched, it will face fierce price and market competition
3. The company has repeatedly warned of stock price fluctuation risks
4. Current valuation has fully reflected optimistic expectations, and the risk of a pullback is high

• Maintain a cautious attitude, and pay attention to Ibennatide’s actual clinical data and launch progress
• Be alert to the risk of a pullback from high levels, and avoid blindly chasing upward trends
• Focus on actual signals of the company’s performance improvement, rather than relying solely on concept speculation

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Changshan Pharmaceuticals Market Data, Technical Analysis and Financial Indicators

[1] The Beijing News - “Changshan Pharmaceuticals Joins the ‘Weight-Loss Drug’ Battle: Two Consecutive Years of Losses, Share Price Doubles” (https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/1750844808129062.html)

[2] Securities Times - “Two Consecutive Years of Losses, Why Did Changshan Pharmaceuticals Reverse to Become the ‘Top Innovative Drug Stock’?” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1960981.html)

[3] National Business Daily - Competition Analysis and Market Prospects of the GLP-1 Track