Investment Analysis of the Package Policy for Coordinated Fiscal and Financial Efforts to Expand Domestic Demand

Based on the national video conference on advancing the package policy for coordinated fiscal and financial efforts to expand domestic demand held by the Ministry of Finance and relevant policy documents, this report conducts a systematic analysis from four perspectives: core policy highlights, analysis of affected sectors, logic of valuation improvement, and investment opportunities.

The national video conference on advancing the package policy for coordinated fiscal and financial efforts to expand domestic demand held by the Ministry of Finance on January 13 marks a key milestone for the policy’s transition from formulation to nationwide implementation[1][2]. The policy system revolves around two core pillars:

: Optimize and implement interest subsidy policies for loans to service industry operators and personal consumption loans[3]
: Implement interest subsidy policies for loans to small and micro enterprises, establish a special guarantee scheme for private investment, set up a risk-sharing mechanism for bonds issued by private enterprises, and optimize the fiscal interest subsidy policy for equipment upgrade loans[4]

Fiscal Interest Subsidies → Reduce Financing Costs → Boost Business/Consumption Willingness → Stimulate Supply and Demand → Drive Employment and Income Growth → Form a Positive Consumption-Investment Cycle

This transmission chain clearly reveals the complete closed-loop of the policy from the financial sector to the real economy, and then from enterprises to residents[5].

The policy explicitly supports the development of service industries such as catering, cultural tourism, elderly care, and childcare, which “absorb a large number of employees and are closely related to consumption upgrading”[5]. The catering and tourism sector will benefit from three aspects:

Benefit Mechanism	Specific Performance
Supply-side Interest Subsidies	Interest subsidies for loans to service industry operators reduce enterprises’ financing costs
Demand-side Stimulus	Interest subsidies for personal consumption loans unleash residents’ consumption potential
Service Upgrading	The policy encourages the increase of high-quality service supply

Judging from current market performance, consumer defensive sectors have performed prominently in the recent market, indicating capital attention to this direction[0].

Elderly care services are listed as a key policy-supported area, which is closely related to its characteristics of “absorbing a large number of employees and being closely linked to consumption upgrading”[5]. With the accelerating trend of population aging, the elderly care-related industrial chain will receive sustained policy dividends:

• Elderly Care Service Operators
  : Community elderly care and institutional elderly care service providers
• Elderly Care Products Manufacturing
  : Manufacturers of rehabilitation devices and nursing equipment
• Medical and Health Services
  : Providers of chronic disease management and health monitoring services

The fiscal interest subsidy policy for equipment upgrade loans is one of the core tools for expanding investment, and will directly benefit the following fields:

Sub-sector	Beneficiary Logic
Industrial Mother Machines	Release of demand for equipment upgrading and replacement in the manufacturing industry
Mechanical Equipment	Fiscal support for industrial equipment upgrading
Automobile Industry	Continuation of the trade-in policy
Home Appliance Industry	Subsidies for trade-in of consumer goods

The policy package lowers the financing threshold for small and micro enterprises from multiple dimensions:

• Interest Subsidies for Small and Micro Enterprise Loans
  : Directly reduce financing costs
• Special Guarantee Scheme for Private Investment
  : Address financing guarantee difficulties
• Risk-Sharing Mechanism for Private Enterprise Bonds
  : Expand direct financing channels
• Interest Subsidies for Equipment Upgrade Loans
  : Reduce investment costs in technological transformation

As the policy is implemented, the decline in enterprises’ financing costs will directly improve profit margins. According to institutional forecasts, non-financial A-share enterprises are expected to achieve a year-on-year profit growth of 5%-16.5% in 2026[6]. As a direct beneficiary of the policy, the profit recovery elasticity of the consumer sector deserves attention.

The current valuation of the A-share market is at its historical central level. Under the combination of proactive fiscal policy (deficit rate maintained at around 4%) and moderately loose monetary policy, the market liquidity environment is favorable. Policy-beneficiary sectors such as consumption and manufacturing have room for valuation recovery[6].

Judging from recent market performance, consumer defensive sectors have performed the best (+0.97703%), and cyclical sectors such as energy, industry, and financial services have also seen positive growth, indicating that capital is adjusting its allocation towards policy-beneficiary directions[0].

Based on policy intensity and market expectations, it is recommended to focus on the following investment opportunities:

Priority	Sector	Sub-sector	Logical Support
First Tier	Consumer Services	Catering, Tourism, Elderly Care	Directly benefit from the “dual interest subsidy” policy
Second Tier	Equipment Upgrade	Industrial Mother Machines, Mechanical Equipment	Directly benefit from equipment upgrade interest subsidies
Third Tier	Manufacturing	Industrial Metals, Chemicals	Cyclical recovery combined with supply constraints
Fourth Tier	Small and Mid-cap Stocks	Private Enterprises, Specialized, Sophisticated, Unique, and New Enterprises	Intensive introduction of financing support policies

• Leading Enterprises
  : Industry leaders with scale advantages and service capabilities will be the first to benefit from policy dividends
• Specialized, Sophisticated, Unique, and New Enterprises
  : Innovative enterprises that align with the “anti-involution” policy orientation
• Regional Leaders
  : Service providers with competitive advantages in specific regional markets
• Performance Inflection Points
  : Focus on enterprises that are expected to see performance inflection points with policy support

• Policy Implementation Progress
  : There is a time lag in the policy’s implementation effect
• Macroeconomic Fluctuations
  : The strength of terminal consumption recovery remains to be seen
• Liquidity Changes
  : The pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may affect the global liquidity environment
• Valuation Fluctuations
  : Changes in market sentiment may lead to short-term valuation fluctuations

Based on policy orientation, market performance, and institutional expectations, the following allocation strategies are recommended:

1. Core Allocation (40%-50%)
   : Leading consumer service enterprises (catering, tourism, elderly care)
2. Satellite Allocation (30%-40%)
   : Equipment upgrade-related sectors (industrial mother machines, mechanical equipment)
3. Elastic Allocation (10%-20%)
   : Small and mid-cap private enterprises, cyclical products (industrial metals, chemicals)

It is necessary to closely monitor policy implementation progress and the verification of January-February economic data, and dynamically adjust the position structure based on changes in fundamentals[6].

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[1] Ministry of Finance Holds National Video Conference on Advancing the Package Policy for Coordinated Fiscal and Financial Efforts to Expand Domestic Demand - Beijing Daily (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-14/doc-inhhhtem8190171.shtml)

[2] Coordinated Fiscal and Financial Efforts to Expand Domestic Demand - People’s Daily Online (http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0111/c1004-40642840.html)

[3] Important Announcement from the State Council Executive Meeting! Implement the Package Policy to Expand Domestic Demand! - Securities Times Network (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3584339.html)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald Editorial: Coordinated Fiscal and Financial Efforts to Further Expand Domestic Demand - 21st Century Business Herald (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260113/6d42366b460a57758a83b9a127bed199.html)

[5] Coordinated Fiscal and Financial Efforts to Further Expand Domestic Demand - Securities Times (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3588726.html)

[6] The Logic of the 2026 A-share Bull Market May Change - Tencent News (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260105A03AKK00)

[7] Public Fund 2026 Investment Strategies Become Clearer: Profits Take Over from Valuations, Technology and Cycles Advance Together - China Securities Journal (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601123615653412.html)

[0] Jinling AI Market Data Interface