In-Depth Analysis of Investment Value of Dividend Stocks on January 15, 2026

Based on collected market data, I will systematically analyze the

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January 15, 2026 is a key trading day in the A-share market with converging multiple factors, mainly including:

Event Type	Details	Market Impact
Dividend Registration	Record date for China Merchants Bank’s first interim dividend	High-dividend targets gain attention
Central Bank Operation	RMB900 billion outright repo (6-month term)	RMB300 billion liquidity injection
Policy Release	State Council Information Office Press Conference on Monetary and Financial Policies	Policy signal guidance
Restricted Share Unlocking	Over 260 companies to unlock approximately RMB740 billion in the first quarter	Supply-side pressure
Share Repurchase & Private Placement	Multiple companies advancing share repurchases	Boost market confidence

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[1][2]:

• Record Date
  : January 15, 2026
• Ex-Date/Ex-Dividend Date
  : January 16, 2026
• Dividend per Share
  : RMB1.013 (including tax)
• Total Dividend Amount
  : Approximately RMB25.548 billion
• A-Share Dividend
  : Approximately RMB20.897 billion
• This is China Merchants Bank’s first interim dividend since its listing

Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Current Stock Price	RMB40.09	-
Dynamic P/E Ratio	6.80x	Lower than industry average
P/B Ratio	0.78x	Significant discount
ROE	12.09%	Excellent level
Net Profit Margin	43.51%	Industry-leading

[0]:

• KDJ Indicator
  : K=9.4, D=21.1, J=-14.0 → In oversold territory, with rebound potential
• RSI Indicator
  : Oversold status
• MACD Indicator
  : Death cross pattern, but no obvious crossover
• Beta Coefficient
  : 0.96, high synchronization with the broader market
• Price Range
  : Support level at RMB39.78, resistance level at RMB41.68
• Overall Judgment
  : Sideways consolidation trend, no clear directional signal

[0]:

• Financial Stance
  : Conservative accounting policies
• Debt Risk
  : Medium risk
• Cash Flow
  : Negative free cash flow (-RMB529.056 billion), mainly due to the investment expansion phase
• Profit Quality
  : Relatively high, but the depreciation/capital expenditure ratio indicates room for improvement

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As of January 12, 2026, interim dividends of A-share listed banks show the following characteristics [3]:

Bank Type	Number	Total Dividend Scale
State-owned Large Banks	6	RMB204.657 billion
Joint-Stock Banks	Multiple	Large scale
City Commercial Banks/Rural Commercial Banks	Multiple	Steady increase
Total	30 banks have disclosed plans	Exceeded RMB290 billion

Bank	Ticker	Estimated Dividend Yield	Dividend Features
China Merchants Bank	600036.SS	~2.52%	First interim dividend, RMB10.13 per 10 shares
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China	601398.SS	~2.80%	Stable dividend tradition
China Construction Bank	601939.SS	~2.90%	Representative of high dividend yield
Postal Savings Bank of China	601658.SS	~3.10%	Dividend distributed on January 12

[3]:

China Galaxy Securities analysis points out that in 2026, the PBoC’s monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, and the optimization of liability costs is expected to ease the interest margin pressure on banks. Against the current low-interest rate environment coupled with intensive dividend distributions, the dividend attributes of bank stocks are prominent, and long-term funds such as insurance capital continue to increase their holdings, helping to restructure the sector’s valuation.

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[4][5]:

• Operation Date
  : January 15, 2026
• Operation Scale
  : RMB900 billion
• Tenor
  : 6 months (181 days)
• Net Injection
  : RMB300 billion (offsetting RMB600 billion maturing repos)
• Policy Signal
  : This marks the 8th consecutive month of increased rollovers, indicating the central bank’s continued accommodative monetary policy stance

:

Wang Qing of Dongfang Jincheng pointed out that this move is mainly to address: 1) The bond issuance demand brought by the early issuance of the 2026 new local government debt quota; 2) The supporting loan placement driven by policy-based financial tools, amplifying the ‘strong start’ effect of credit [4].

[0]:

Date	Closing Price	Change	Trading Volume
2026-01-08	4082.98	+0.13%	RMB666.1 billion
2026-01-09	4120.43	+0.82%	RMB729.8 billion
2026-01-12	4165.29	+0.74%	RMB839.5 billion
2026-01-13	4138.76	-0.74%	RMB868.4 billion
2026-01-14	4126.09	-0.30%	RMB952.6 billion
2026-01-15	4109.75	+0.09%	RMB952.6 billion

: Trading volume remains at a high level (above RMB900 billion), indicating high market activity, but the index is consolidating in the range of 4100-4200 points.

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[6]:

• Number of Companies
  : Over 260 listed companies
• Unlocked Share Volume
  : Approximately 36 billion shares
• Unlocked Market Value
  : Approximately RMB740 billion (calculated based on closing prices on January 8)
• Features
  : Significant differentiation in quantity, concentration of high-proportion unlocking, high share of restricted shares from original IPO shareholders

:

Company	Unlocking Ratio	Type
Cinda Securities	78.67%	Restricted shares from original IPO shareholders
Wondercal	74.60%	Restricted shares from original IPO shareholders
Duoli Technology	>70%	Restricted shares from original IPO shareholders

: Unlocking does not equal share sale, but it requires comprehensive judgment combined with the company’s fundamentals [6].

:

• Nanshan Aluminum
  : Plans to repurchase shares worth RMB300-600 million for cancellation [7]
• Huazhijie
  : Plans to repurchase RMB30-50 million worth of shares for equity incentives
• Conglin Technology
  : Actual repurchase volume is 0 shares as the stock price is above the repurchase ceiling

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:

1. Valuation Advantage
   : P/E ratio is only 6.8x, P/B ratio is 0.78x, which is in the historical low range
2. Dividend Attractiveness
   : Dividend yield of approximately 2.52% has allocation value in a low-interest rate environment
3. First Interim Dividend
   : Reflects the company’s increased willingness to reward shareholders, and dividend sustainability is expected
4. Liquidity Support
   : The central bank continues to inject liquidity, ensuring ample funds in the interbank market
5. Stable Performance
   : ROE remains above 12%, with strong profitability

:

1. Oversold Technical Position
   : May continue to face short-term pressure
2. Sector Rotation
   : Pullback in tech stocks may divert capital
3. Unlocking Pressure
   : The financial sector as a whole faces certain unlocking pressure

Strategy Type	Specific Recommendations	Target Investors
Short-Term Trading	Enter before the record date, pay attention to the fill-up trend after the ex-date	Aggressive investors
Value Allocation	Accumulate on dips, hold long-term to obtain dividend income	Conservative investors
Portfolio Allocation	Include bank stocks as part of defensive asset allocation	Risk-averse investors

Date	Event	Investment Implications
2026-01-15	Record date for China Merchants Bank’s dividend	Last trading day to qualify for dividend
2026-01-16	Ex-date/Ex-dividend date	Stock price adjustment, pay attention to fill-up trend
2026-01-16	China Merchants Bank cash dividend distribution date	Dividend credited to accounts
2026-01-16	Post policy press conference	Pay attention to policy signals

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1. China Merchants Bank has good investment value
   : Valuation is at a historical low, dividend yield is attractive, and the first interim dividend highlights the enhanced awareness of shareholder returns.

2. The bank sector as a whole benefits from the intensive dividend period
   : 30 banks have a total dividend of over RMB290 billion, with prominent dividend attributes, and long-term funds such as insurance capital continue to increase their holdings.

3. Overall liquidity environment is accommodative
   : The PBoC’s RMB900 billion repo resulted in a net injection of RMB300 billion, providing sufficient liquidity support to the market.

4. Risks to Watch
   : Unlocking pressure of restricted shares in the first quarter, oversold technical position, and short-term market fluctuations.

:

• Target Price
  : First target at RMB41.68 (resistance level), medium-term target at RMB44-46
• Stop-Loss Price
  : RMB39.00
• Holding Period
  : 3-6 months

: Macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in interest rate policies, adjustments in industry regulatory policies, and company operating performance falling short of expectations.

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[1] China Merchants Bank’s 2025 Interim A-Share Dividend Distribution Plan to Be Implemented Soon (https://www.wenshannet.com/companyInterpretation/172910.html)

[2] China Merchants Bank: Total Cash Dividends of Approximately RMB25.548 Billion for the 2025 Interim Period (http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/GLH2247466L/latest-news/GLH)

[3] Interim Dividend of A-Share Listed Banks Exceeds RMB290 Billion (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jinrong/yh/2026-01-14/doc-inhhhnwv7157073.shtml)

[4] Expert Interpretation of RMB900 Billion Outright Repo (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601143619181374.html)

[5] PBoC to Conduct RMB900 Billion Outright Repo Operation (https://www.chnfund.com/article/ARbb4d1439-e47f-44cc-9617-3a1ece695dc1)

[6] Unlocking Wave Hits in Q1 2026, Over 260 Listed Companies to Unlock Restricted Shares (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601093614269954.html)

[7] Stock Market Navigator_January 14, 2026_Announcements and Trading Tips for Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets (https://www.xincai.com/article/nhhfmkz8569522)