In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of the AI Computing Power Surge on Copper Prices and Copper Mining Enterprise Valuations

Based on collected market data, financial analysis reports, and professional research materials, I provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

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As of January 14, 2025, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices briefly hit an all-time high of

, while domestic copper futures prices surged to [1]. For the full year of 2025, LME copper prices posted an accumulated increase of approximately 43%, marking the largest annual gain since 2009; the main continuous contract price of SHFE copper futures saw an accumulated increase of over 30% during the year[2][3].

The core driving factors behind this round of copper price surge include:

• Surge in AI computing power demand
  : Copper demand for data center construction is growing exponentially
• Tight supply side
  : South American copper mines (Peru and Chile account for 40% of global reserves) are affected by energy shortages and mining accidents
• New energy transition
  : Copper demand in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power and other sectors continues to rise

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Artificial intelligence is reshaping the logic of copper demand, emerging as the

driving copper price increases[4]:

Application Scenario	Copper Consumption per Unit	Increase vs. Traditional Equipment
NVIDIA GB200 Series AI Server	15-20 kg/unit	3x
AI Data Center	27-33 tons per MW of power	More than 2x
Traditional Data Center	Approximately 13-15 tons per MW of power	Benchmark

According to forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA):

• 2030
  : Global copper consumption by data centers will range between
  250,000-550,000 tons
  , accounting for approximately 1%-2% of global copper demand
• 2050
  : This figure will
  increase sixfold
  , becoming an important growth driver for copper demand[5]

In addition to AI data centers, the new energy and intelligent manufacturing sectors also contribute significant incremental copper demand:

Sector	Copper Consumption per Unit	Estimated New Demand in China (2024)
Photovoltaic Power Generation	4-5 tons per MW	≥860,000 tons
Onshore Wind Power	3-4 tons per MW	≥230,000 tons
Offshore Wind Power	8-15 tons per MW	≥30,000 tons
Battery Electric Vehicles	80 kg/unit	Continuous growth
Humanoid Robots	12 kg/unit	Emerging incremental market

: Copper consumption of new energy vehicles is , and the copper consumption for one training session of an AI large model is equivalent to that of 37 electric vehicles[6].

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:

1. Declining ore grade
   : Global copper ore grade has dropped from 4% in 1900 to
   1.07%
   in 2024
2. Sharp decline in new mine discoveries
   : A total of 239 copper deposits were discovered globally between 1990 and 2023, while only
   14
   were discovered in the past decade
3. Widening supply gap
   : CITIC Construction Investment predicts that the global copper gap will be 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons in 2026-2028 respectively, with the long-term gap showing a
   widening trend
   [7]

:

• The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicts that global copper demand will
  grow by more than 40%
  by 2040
• Copper demand from AI and new energy sectors is expected to account for
  35%
  of global total demand by 2030[5]

Institution	2026 Forecast	Long-Term Forecast
Goldman Sachs	$10,700-$11,400 per ton	$15,000 per ton in 2035
JPMorgan Chase	$12,075 per ton (average price)	May reach $12,500 per ton in Q2
Citigroup	Break through $13,000 per ton at the start of the year	Test $15,000 per ton in Q2
UBS	$11,500-$13,000 per ton	-

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Benefiting from rising copper prices and cost optimization, major domestic copper mining enterprises achieved a

in 2024[8]:

Enterprise	Revenue Growth Rate	Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders Growth Rate	ROE Level
MMG Limited	-	95%	Leading
China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd.	67%	80%+	Upper-mid tier
Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd.	14%	82%	Top tier
Zijin Mining Group	16%	68%	Top tier

Sample copper mining enterprises (excluding China Railway Group) saw an average revenue increase of

and an average net profit attributable to shareholders increase of in 2024, with profit growth significantly outpacing revenue and copper price growth.

From the perspective of the

indicator[8]:

Enterprise	2024 Indicator	2025 Forecast Indicator	PB (2024)	PE (2025 Forecast)
Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd.	RMB 2.9 billion per 10,000 tons	RMB 2.7 billion per 10,000 tons	2.9	14.0
Western Mining Co., Ltd.	RMB 3.0 billion per 10,000 tons	RMB 3.0 billion per 10,000 tons	3.1	11.5
Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd.	RMB 3.1 billion per 10,000 tons	RMB 3.1 billion per 10,000 tons	1.0	10.9
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd.	RMB 3.6 billion per 10,000 tons	RMB 2.8 billion per 10,000 tons	1.6	10.0
Zijin Mining Group	RMB 3.7 billion per 10,000 tons	RMB 3.5 billion per 10,000 tons	4.1	12.3

(Taking Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. as an example)[9]:

• Asset-liability ratio: Dropped to
  49.52%
  in 2024 (a decrease of approximately 13 percentage points compared to 2022)
• EBITDA interest coverage ratio:
  8.47x
  (significantly improved)
• Operating cash flow:
  RMB 32.4 billion
  (108% year-over-year growth)

Based on comprehensive consideration of capacity growth, valuation levels, and financial indicators:

Recommendation Ranking	Enterprise	Core Logic
★★★★★	Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd.	Rising prices and volumes of copper and cobalt, obvious cost advantages, most attractive valuation
★★★★★	Zijin Mining Group	Absolute leadership in mined copper production, global layout, strong anti-cyclical capabilities
★★★★☆	MMG Limited	Leading profit growth rate, high production growth elasticity
★★★★☆	Western Mining Co., Ltd.	Relatively high dividend yield (2.5%), low valuation
★★★☆☆	Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd.	Leading smelter, lowest PB valuation (1.0), but limited growth potential

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• Faster-than-expected acceleration of AI data center construction
• Accelerated global power grid upgrade investment
• Continued “black swan” events on the supply side
• Launch of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle

• Supply-side recovery (e.g., restart of Panama’s Cobre Panamá copper mine, which produced 350,000 tons of copper in 2022)
• Accelerated substitution process of “aluminum replacing copper”
• Demand contraction due to global economic recession
• Disruption of trade flows by U.S. tariff policies

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1. AI computing power has become a new core driver of copper prices
   : Copper consumption per AI server is 3 times that of traditional servers, and copper demand for data centers is more than twice that of traditional ones, with this demand growing rapidly.

2. Copper demand from emerging sectors can support long-term copper price upticks
   :
   • Global computing power infrastructure will drive a surge of approximately 45% in copper demand in 2026
   • Copper demand from AI and new energy sectors is expected to account for 35% of global total demand by 2030
   • The supply-demand gap is expected to widen from 180,000 tons in 2026 to 380,000-650,000 tons in 2028

3. Copper mining enterprise valuations still have upside potential
   :
   • Rising copper prices directly drive profit growth, with major enterprises posting net profit growth rates of 40%-95% in 2024
   • Enterprises with high resource self-sufficiency and strong cost control capabilities (such as Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and Zijin Mining Group) will continue to benefit
   • Current valuation levels (PE 10-15x) are still within a reasonable range

: Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993.SZ), Zijin Mining Group (601899.SS)

: Copper prices have entered an era of “scarcity pricing”. It is recommended to accumulate positions on dips in copper prices in copper mining enterprises with high resource self-sufficiency, strong certainty of production growth, and attractive valuations.

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[1] Sina Finance - Copper Prices Hit New Record Highs (January 2025): https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-01-14/doc-icyavycv0335229.shtml

[2] China Nonferrous Metals News - Copper Prices Post Best Annual Performance in Over a Decade (January 2026): https://www.cnmn.com.cn/ShowNews1.aspx?id=468052

[3] Cailianshe - Copper Prices Post Best Annual Performance in Over a Decade (December 2025): https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-30/doc-inheqyvh4078221.shtml

[4] China Nonferrous Metals News - Analysts: AI Demand Will Drive Further Price Increases: https://www.cnmn.com.cn/ShowNews1.aspx?id=468052

[5] Global Zero Carbon - Why Copper Has Become the “New Oil” of the AI Era (December 2025): https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-05/doc-inmv滨江yftz0551779.shtml

[6] China Energy Network - Copper Prices Fluctuated Upward at the End of 2025 (January 2026): https://www.cnenergynews.cn/article/4Pn4dfm4k5z

[7] Caijing Magazine - International Copper Prices Hit a New All-Time High (December 2025): https://www.mycaijing.com/article/detail/561161

[8] Everbright Securities - Multi-Dimensional Indicator Comparison of Listed Copper Enterprises (March 2024): https://file.iyanbao.com/pdf/d31c8-8c3218c0-f74d-4d45-bc52-30f90987e088.pdf

[9] China Chengxin International - Follow-Up Rating Report on Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. (2025): https://file.finance.qq.com/finance/hs/pdf/2025/05/22/1223626066.PDF