Analysis of the Impact of WeChat Pay and Mini Program Internationalization on Tencent's Hong Kong Stock Valuation

Based on collected data and market information, I will systematically analyze

.

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As one of China’s largest internet companies, Tencent has a diversified revenue structure. The 2024 financial report shows a clear breakdown of revenue contribution from Tencent’s three core segments:

, , and [0]. This healthy structure of “core profitability + incremental growth” provides a solid foundation for valuation.

In terms of market performance, as of January 15, 2026, Tencent’s Hong Kong stock (0700.HK) has a market capitalization of

, with a current stock price of HK$622, representing a over the past year, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index (which rose 35.07% in the same period)[0]. This indicates that the market has priced Tencent’s growth potential positively.

Based on the collected cross-border ecosystem data, WeChat’s internationalization business showed significant growth in 2025:

Indicator	2024	2025	YoY Growth
Number of Countries and Regions Covered by Mini Programs	70	100	+43%
Number of Transactions by Cross-Border and Overseas Users	-	Exceeded 5 billion	-
Growth Rate of Mini Program Transaction Value (H2)	-	Over 70%	-
WeChat Overseas Registered Accounts	40 million	70 million	+75%
YoY Growth of Cross-Border Transaction Volume	-	34%	-

• Sustained Improvement in Mini Program Ecosystem Activity
  : In Q3 2024, Mini Program transaction value exceeded
  CN¥2 trillion
  , covering multiple scenarios such as catering and retail, transportation, and public utility payments[1]
• Expansion of WeChat Pay Cross-Border Scenarios
  : In popular outbound travel destinations such as Malaysia, New Zealand, and the UK, the number of WeChat Pay transactions by mainland Chinese users saw the fastest growth[2]
• Expanded International Cooperation Network
  : Tencent has established partnerships with international payment providers including PayNet (Malaysian Payment Network), Grab, ShopeePay, and GrabPay to achieve cross-border payment interoperability[2]

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The impact of WeChat’s internationalization business on Tencent’s valuation is mainly transmitted through the following channels:

The Financial Technology & Enterprise Services segment is Tencent’s second-largest revenue source, with revenue reaching

[3]. Management disclosed that the segment’s growth is mainly driven by commercial payment services and consumer credit services:

• Commercial payment transaction value returned to
  positive YoY growth
  in Q2
• Consumer credit maintained a
  healthy growth rate
• Transaction technology service fees related to WeChat Shops saw
  continuous rapid growth
• International cloud business revenue achieved
  significant growth
  , securing orders from multiple large international clients in Southeast Asia[3]

The advertising business within the WeChat ecosystem is a direct beneficiary of internationalization expansion. Data from Q2 2025 shows:

Ad Type	YoY Growth	Degree of Internationalization Relevance
Video Account Ads	Over 50%	High
Mini Program Ads	Approximately 50%	High
WeChat Search Ads	Approximately 60%	Medium

Mini Program Ads are related to mini-games and short dramas; the number of overseas Mini Programs with monthly transaction value exceeding 10 million

[1], which directly boosted advertisers’ willingness to invest in the WeChat ecosystem.

WeChat’s overseas user count grew from

, nearly doubling[4]. This user growth has the following valuation implications:

1. Expanded user base
   leads to
   increased ad inventory
   and
   expanded payment scenarios
2. Significant Contribution from Southeast Asian Markets
   : Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand are the main growth engines
3. Greater Bay Area Integration Dividend
   : In Hong Kong and Macau, monthly active users reach millions thanks to Hong Kong dollar wallet interoperability[4]

In November 2025, Tencent launched a new payment solution,

, aiming to help overseas merchants on WeChat Mini Programs access local payment methods[5]. The valuation implications of this initiative include:

• Lowered Cross-Border Payment Barriers
  : Overseas merchants can reach Chinese consumers more conveniently
• Expanded Revenue Streams
  : Growth in technology service fees and transaction commission income
• Deepened Ecosystem Moat
  : Formed a closed-loop of “Payment + Mini Programs + Marketing”

In addition, Tencent Mi Das has reached a global partnership with Mastercard to jointly reshape the future of digital commerce[6]; TenPay Global has collaborated with Mastercard Move to enable fast, secure cross-border remittances to WeChat Pay[7], further expanding the international payment network.

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Based on the DCF valuation model[0], the valuation of Tencent’s current stock price under different scenarios is as follows:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Stock Price	Key Assumptions
Bear Case	HK$503.72	-19.0%	0% revenue growth, 2% terminal growth rate, 10% WACC
Base Case	HK$639.24	+2.8%	8.2% revenue growth, 2.5% terminal growth rate, 10% WACC
Bull Case	HK$998.09	+60.5%	11.2% revenue growth, 3% terminal growth rate, 9% WACC
Probability-Weighted Value	HK$713.68	+14.7%	Combined probabilities of the three scenarios

• The current PE ratio is
  22.54x
  , which is within the historically reasonable range[0]
• If internationalization businesses continue to exceed expectations (e.g., Mini Programs cover over 120 countries, cross-border transaction value grows over 100%), the PE ratio is expected to expand to
  25-28x
• Based on Buffett’s valuation method, Tencent’s fair value in 2025 is approximately
  HK$605 per share
  (equivalent to HK$657 per share, considering exchange rates)[3]

Rating	Number of Institutions	Percentage
Buy	1	50%
Hold	1	50%
Sell	0	0%

• January 2023: Barclays maintained an “Equal Weight” rating[0]
• Overall Consensus:
  BUY

Driver	Valuation Contribution	Sustainability	Probability of Realization
Growth in Mini Program Transaction Value (Exceeded CN¥2 trillion in Q3)	High	Long-Term	High
Overseas User Growth (+75%)	Medium	Medium-Term	High
Growth in Cross-Border Transaction Volume (+34%)	Medium	Medium-Term	High
Video Account Ad Growth (+50%)	High	Medium-Term	Medium-High
International Cloud Business Expansion	Medium	Long-Term	Medium

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Based on current market data and internationalization business progress, we have constructed three valuation scenarios:

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Tencent Hong Kong Stock Valuation Scenario Analysis                  │
├─────────────────┬──────────────┬────────────────┬───────────────┤
│     Scenario     │  Expected PE Multiple  │ Expected Market Cap (HK$ Trillion)│   Key Assumptions    │
├─────────────────┼──────────────┼────────────────┼───────────────┤
│  Bear Case       │     18x      │      5.2       │ Slow Business Growth  │
│  Base Case       │     22x      │      6.3       │ Steady Growth      │
│  Bull Case       │     28x      │      8.0       │ Internationalization Exceeds Expectations  │
├─────────────────┼──────────────┼────────────────┼───────────────┤
│  Current Market Cap       │   22.54x     │      5.65      │ -             │
└─────────────────┴──────────────┴────────────────┴───────────────┘

1. Bear Case (PE 18x)
   : Assumes international business growth falls short of expectations, expansion is hindered by geopolitical factors, and ad revenue growth drops to below 10%

2. Base Case (PE 22x)
   : Current actual scenario, Mini Programs cover around 100 countries, cross-border transaction value grows 50-70%, and the fintech segment maintains a 10% growth rate

3. Bull Case (PE 28x)
   : Assumes internationalization business exceeds expectations, Mini Programs cover over 120 countries, overseas users exceed 100 million, and cross-border payment market share increases significantly

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1. Accelerated Internationalization Business
   : If the number of countries covered by Mini Programs exceeds expectations (>120), Tencent is expected to receive an additional valuation premium
2. AI Technology Empowerment
   : In-depth application of the Hunyuan Large Model in advertising, gaming, and payment scenarios improves monetization efficiency
3. Accelerated Commercialization of Video Accounts
   : Increased ad load rates drive revenue growth

1. Geopolitical Risks
   : International business expansion may be affected by China-US relations
2. Regulatory Uncertainty
   : Fintech business faces compliance regulatory pressure
3. Intensified Competition
   : Challenges from competitors such as Alipay and Douyin in the payment and Mini Program sectors

Based on the above analysis, we believe that the internationalization businesses of WeChat Pay and Mini Programs

on Tencent’s Hong Kong stock valuation, mainly reflected in:

1. Revenue Diversification
   : Internationalization businesses reduce reliance on the Chinese market
2. Improved Growth Visibility
   : Sustained growth in Mini Program transaction value and cross-border payment volume provides quantifiable growth indicators
3. Foundation for Valuation Premium
   : Internationalization expansion provides Tencent with valuation imagination space as a “global internet company”

(based on different valuation methods)[3]

is in the neutral valuation range, and the [0].

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The rapid growth of the internationalization businesses of WeChat Pay and Mini Programs has had multi-dimensional positive impacts on Tencent’s Hong Kong stock valuation:

1. Business Level
   : Internationalization expansion has contributed a new growth engine to the fintech segment; in 2025, Mini Program transaction value exceeded CN¥2 trillion, and cross-border transaction volume grew 34%
2. Revenue Level
   : Internationalization has driven high growth in the advertising business; Video Account and Mini Program ads grew 50-60% YoY, becoming an important driver of revenue growth
3. Valuation Level
   : Internationalization businesses have improved Tencent’s growth visibility and global market imagination space, providing support for valuation; the DCF probability-weighted value has 14.7% upside potential compared to the current stock price
4. Strategic Level
   : Initiatives such as the TenPay Global Global Checkout Counter and the partnership between Mi Das and Mastercard have built international payment infrastructure, laying a foundation for long-term growth

Overall, the continuous expansion of WeChat’s internationalization businesses provides

for Tencent’s Hong Kong stock valuation. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the progress of internationalization businesses and seize opportunities for valuation re-rating.

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[0] Jinling API Data - Tencent Holdings Company Profile, Financial Analysis, and DCF Valuation
[1] Huxiu - “Tencent is Clearly Undervalued” (https://m.huxiu.com/article/4139041.html)
[2] enanyang.my - “Digital Going Global: Zero Barriers for Malaysian Wallets in China” (https://www.enanyang.my/news/20251230/Supplement/1117417)
[3] Sina Finance - “In-Depth Analysis of Tencent Holdings’ Q2 2025 Earnings Report” (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/1741543435/67cdd80b02701d6u4)
[4] Xueqiu - “WeChat’s Overseas User Count Nearly Doubled from 2024 to 2025” (https://xueqiu.com/3282019976/353114102)
[5] Tencent Official Media News - Tencent Launches TenPay Global Global Checkout Counter (https://www.tencent.com/zh-cn/media/news.html?type=media)
[6] Tencent Official Media News - Tencent Mi Das Reaches Global Partnership with Mastercard (https://www.tencent.com/zh-cn/media/news.html?type=media)
[7] Tencent Official Media News - TenPay Global Collaborates with Mastercard Move (https://www.tencent.com/zh-cn/media/news.html?type=media)