In-Depth Analysis of State Grid's 4 Trillion Yuan 15th Five-Year Investment Plan: Impact on New Power System Industry Chain and Valuation of New Energy Listed Companies

I will now provide you with a systematic and comprehensive professional analysis report.

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According to the 15th Five-Year (2026-2030) investment plan officially released by State Grid Corporation on January 15, 2026, the fixed-asset investment of State Grid during the 15th Five-Year period is expected to reach

, a compared to the 2.8 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year period (2021-2025), hitting a record high in the company’s history [1][2]. This investment scale marks the entry of China’s power grid construction into a new super cycle.

2025 is the final year of the 14th Five-Year period, and State Grid has completed fixed-asset investment exceeding 650 billion yuan, a record high. During the 14th Five-Year period, the cumulative fixed-asset investment exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, with 8 AC and 8 DC UHV projects completed and put into operation, and the inter-provincial power transmission capacity increased by 40% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year period [3]. This foundation has laid a solid groundwork for the investment growth in the 15th Five-Year period.

UBS Investment Bank predicts that China’s power demand will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 8%-9% during the 15th Five-Year period, doubling the market’s general expectation of 4%-5%. This growth mainly comes from three aspects: AI data centers (contributing about 2.3 percentage points), manufacturing exports (contributing about 1.4 percentage points), and the promotion of electrification [1].

According to forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global power demand from data centers is expected to more than double by 2030, with AI being the primary driver of this surge in power consumption. A report released by S&P Global Market Intelligence states that the total global power demand from data centers will increase from 860 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 1587 terawatt-hours in 2030 [1].

According to official disclosures, the 4 trillion yuan investment in the 15th Five-Year period will focus on the following six key directions:

Investment Direction	Estimated Proportion	Core Objective
Grid Connection of Wind and Solar New Energy Installations	Approximately 30%	Add 200 GW of wind and solar installations annually; increase non-fossil energy consumption share to 25%
UHV Transmission Channels	Approximately 25%	Increase inter-regional and inter-provincial power transmission capacity by over 30%
Distribution Network Construction and Transformation	Approximately 20%	Upgrade distribution networks in urban, rural, and remote areas
Energy Storage Facilities	Approximately 12%	Large-scale development of pumped storage + new energy storage
Charging Infrastructure	Approximately 8%	Meet the connection demand of 35 million charging facilities
Digitalization and Intelligentization of Power Grids	Approximately 5%	Implement the “AI +” special initiative

During the 15th Five-Year period, State Grid will accelerate the construction of UHV DC transmission channels, promoting an over 30% increase in inter-regional and inter-provincial power transmission capacity compared to the end of the 14th Five-Year period, with a focus on supporting the development and transmission of clean energy bases in the “Shagehuang” (desert, Gobi, and desertified land) areas and large hydropower bases in Southwest China [2].

Institutions predict that 5 DC lines (Shaanxi-Henan, Badain Jaran-Sichuan, Southern Xinjiang-Chongqing/Sichuan, Kubuqi-Shanghai, Qinghai-Guangxi) are expected to be approved in 2026, and 4 DC/2 AC lines are expected to be approved annually during the 15th Five-Year period [4]. The accelerated approval pace provides sufficient project reserves for the UHV industry chain.

Core Benefiting Targets:

• NARI Technology (600406.SS)
  : Leader in converter valves and protection equipment, with a market capitalization of approximately 150 billion yuan; full main grid orders in 2025
• XJ Electric (000400.SZ)
  : Core supplier of DC transmission equipment
• XD Electric (601179.SS)
  : Leader in UHV transformers and combined electrical appliances; won a 1.447 billion yuan power transmission and transformation project bid in December 2025 [5]
• Pinggao Electric (600312.SS)
  : Leader in high-voltage switchgear equipment

The transformer segment is facing dual drivers of “technological innovation + demand surge”. Zhao Yongzhan, Global Executive Vice President of Hitachi Energy, pointed out that grid expansion driven by the AI investment boom is increasing demand for products such as transformers, high-voltage switches, and flexible DC systems [1].

In overseas markets, the aging U.S. power grid coupled with AI data centers has exacerbated power shortages, and the delivery cycle for power transformers remains at a high level of over 100 weeks. The overseas supply gap is difficult to close in the short term. From January to November 2025, domestic exports of power transformers reached 5.5 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 49% [5].

Core Benefiting Targets:

• TBEA (600089.SS)
  : Leader in transformers, with a market capitalization of approximately 210 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of about 27x [6]
• Huaming Equipment (002270.SZ)
  : Leader in tap changers
• Sanbian Technology (002112.SZ)
  : Niche leader in power transmission and transformation equipment

During the 15th Five-Year period, State Grid will optimize the layout of pumped storage stations, support the large-scale development of new energy storage, and improve the operation support and grid connection consumption level of new energy [2].

Leading enterprises in the energy storage industry performed strongly in 2024:

• Sungrow (300274.SZ)
  : Global shipments of energy storage systems reached 28 GWh, with revenue of 24.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, and a gross profit margin of 36.7% [7]
• CATL (300750.SZ)
  : Sales of energy storage battery systems reached 93 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34.32%, with revenue of 57.3 billion yuan [7]
• CSG Energy Storage (600995.SH)
  : The only pumped storage + new energy storage subsidiary under China Southern Power Grid; net profit attributable to parent company increased by 27.62% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [8]

The distribution network is gradually transforming from a power network that simply receives and distributes electricity to users into a power network with integrated interaction of sources, grids, loads, and storage, and flexible coupling with superior power grids. In 2025, the unit prices of the second batch of regional centralized procurement equipment generally rebounded by 10%~30%. The power grid side has increased the technical weight in bidding and guided prices back to a reasonable range, and the industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability [4].

Core Benefiting Targets:

• Siyuan Electric (002028.SZ)
  : Leader in power transmission and distribution equipment; bid-winning amount for power transmission and transformation equipment increased by 82% year-on-year in 2025
• Dongfang Electronics (000682.SZ)
  : Leader in distribution automation
• Sifang Electric (601126.SH)
  : Leader in power protection equipment

State Grid will meet the connection demand of 35 million charging facilities and improve the electrification level of terminal energy consumption [2]. With the continuous growth of the ownership of new energy vehicles, the demand for charging facility connections is increasing.

Core Benefiting Targets:

• TGood (300001.SZ)
  : Leader in charging pile operation
• Wanma Holdings (002276.SZ)
  : Charging equipment + cables

In 2025, supported by factors such as the continuous acceleration of State Grid’s investment, accelerated UHV approvals, and strong demand for overseas power grid transformation, the Shenwan Power Grid Equipment Index surged 33% and hit a new historical high [5]. As the valuations of the sector and individual stocks rise, the market’s focus is on performance realization and certainty of prosperity.

In terms of valuation levels:

• The historical dynamic P/E of primary power grid equipment companies usually fluctuates in the range of 15-20x
• Secondary equipment companies are in the range of 25-30x
• Benefiting from technological upgrading and overseas expansion logic, the valuation of the transformer segment is expected to break through the traditional ceiling

Company	Ticker	Market Capitalization (100 Million Yuan)	P/E(TTM)	Annual Increase	Core Logic
XD Electric	601179.SS	Approximately 950	57x	+87%	Dual drivers of UHV + overseas expansion
TBEA	600089.SS	Approximately 2100	27x	+132%	Transformer leader + overseas orders
NARI Technology	600406.SS	Approximately 1500	25x	+45%	Leader in secondary equipment
Goldwind Science & Technology	002202.SZ	Approximately 1250	47x	+202%	Wind turbine whole machine + operation and maintenance
Sungrow	300274.SZ	Approximately 1800	35x	+85%	Global leader in energy storage systems

Data Source: Jinling API Data [6]

In 2025, 3 AC and 2 DC UHV projects have been approved, with the approval speed significantly accelerating in Q4. 1 DC and 1 AC project are expected to be approved in December, bringing the annual total to 3 DC and 4 AC projects. 4 DC lines are expected to be approved in 2026, and the performance visibility of UHV industry chain enterprises is high for the next 2-3 years [5].

Long-term underinvestment in key links such as high-voltage transformers and power transmission and distribution equipment in the North American power grid, coupled with the concentrated load deployment of AI data centers, has further amplified system vulnerabilities. The delivery cycle of overseas power transformers exceeds 100 weeks, and domestic enterprises are expected to continue to enjoy growth in both volume and profit [4].

The 6 batches of bidding for State Grid’s power transmission and transformation equipment in 2025 have laid a solid foundation for equipment delivery and performance realization in 2026. Leading enterprises have full orders and strong performance certainty. The bidding volume of 750kV EHV transformers and combined electrical appliances increased by over 75% year-on-year [5].

As of January 14, 2026, there are 31 power grid equipment stocks with a trailing P/E ratio of less than 30x, of which 9 have a ratio of less than 20x, including Xilian Electronics, Chint Group, Juhua Technology, Jinbei Electric, and Zhezhong Co., Ltd. [9].

In terms of capital flow, 4 stocks have seen net margin purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since January, namely Chint Group, XJ Electric, NARI Technology, and TBEA, indicating that institutional funds are actively deploying in the power grid equipment sector [9].

1. UHV Equipment
   : NARI Technology, XJ Electric, XD Electric, Pinggao Electric
2. Transformer Overseas Expansion
   : TBEA, Huaming Equipment, Jinpan Technology, Siyuan Electric
3. Energy Storage Systems
   : Sungrow, CSG Energy Storage, CATL
4. Distribution Network Upgrading
   : Siyuan Electric, Dongfang Electronics, Sifang Electric

• Conservative Allocation
  : Sifang Electric, Huaming Equipment, Pinggao Electric, Siyuan Electric, Samsung Medical
• Aggressive Allocation
  : Jinpan Technology, XJ Electric, Sineng Electric, Sungrow
• Focus on Valuation Repair
  : The overall valuation of the power grid equipment sector still has room for improvement; pay attention to opportunities for performance exceeding expectations

Risk Type	Specific Content	Response Strategy
Power Grid Investment Falling Short of Expectations	The investment pace of State Grid and China Southern Power Grid may be affected by the macroeconomy	Pay attention to order execution progress and performance realization
New Energy Installation Falling Short of Expectations	The construction progress of wind and solar bases may affect power grid investment	Track new energy installation data and consumption status
Raw Material Price Fluctuations	Prices of raw materials such as copper and steel affect equipment gross profit margins	Pay attention to enterprises’ cost transmission capabilities
Technological Iteration Risk	New technologies may replace traditional equipment	Pay attention to enterprises’ R&D investment and technology reserves
International Trade Frictions	Equipment exports may face trade barriers	Pay attention to the sustainability of overseas orders

State Grid’s 4 trillion yuan 15th Five-Year investment plan is a milestone event in the construction of the new power system, which will have a profound impact on the entire power grid equipment industry chain:

1. Unprecedented Investment Scale
   : The 4 trillion yuan represents a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five-Year period, with an average annual investment of approximately 800 billion yuan, hitting a record high
2. Comprehensive Benefits for the Industry Chain
   : All links from UHV, transformers to energy storage and charging facilities are expected to see rapid growth in orders and performance
3. Clear Logic for Valuation Enhancement
   : Driven by three factors: domestic main grid construction + overseas market expansion + technological upgrading, the valuation center of the power grid equipment sector is expected to move upward
4. Obvious Structural Differentiation
   : UHV and transformer overseas expansion maintain high prosperity, distribution network rebounds from the bottom, and energy storage develops rapidly

As power grid investment increases in the opening year of the 15th Five-Year period, structural differentiation will become the main theme. It is recommended that investors focus on the two core directions of domestic main grid power transmission and transformation and power equipment exports, and pay attention to leading enterprises in sub-sectors with strong performance certainty.

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[1] The Paper - The Largest Power Grid Investment in History is Released! State Grid will Invest 4 Trillion Yuan in the Next Five Years (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32392736)

[2] Xinhua News Agency - 4 Trillion Yuan Investment Launched! State Grid’s 15th Five-Year Plan Targets New Power System Construction (https://www.news.cn/fortune/20260115/56ff624cc7f34e0f8ed8859970a7168f/c.html)

[3] China Energy News - 4 Trillion Yuan Power Grid Investment in the 15th Five-Year Period, a Record High (http://m.cyol.com/gb/articles/2026-01/15/content_Pb6dgytx0B.html)

[4] Guotai Junan Securities - 2026 Annual Strategy Report on Power (Power Grid) Equipment: AI-Powered Transformation, Resonance of Domestic and Foreign Demand (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202601051815159513_1.pdf)

[5] Yicai Global - A-Share Power Grid Equipment Sector Sees Batch Volatility, Industry Prosperity Logic Changes in 2026 (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260107A0728900)

[6] Jinling AI - Real-Time Data API for Listed Companies (Self-obtained)

[7] Sina Finance - Panorama of Listed Companies in the Energy Storage Industry Chain: Who is Leading? Who is Rising? (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-05-26/doc-inexwnvh9968858.shtml)

[8] China Merchants Securities - In-Depth Report on the Only Pumped Storage + New Energy Storage Target under China Southern Power Grid (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202411061640736124_1.pdf)

[9] Securities Times - Data Centers Boost Power Demand, Power Grid Equipment Sector Strengthens (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3593606.html)

[10] National Business Daily - 40% Growth! State Grid Plans to Invest 4 Trillion Yuan to Build a New Power System (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-01-15/4222638.html)