Pre-Market Tech Rally: TSMC's Record Earnings and AI Demand Drive Semiconductor Surge

Based on my research of the latest market news and developments, I can identify several key factors driving the pre-market rally in major US tech stocks, particularly NVIDIA’s over 1% gain.

The primary catalyst for the tech sector rally is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) exceptional fourth-quarter results and significantly raised capital expenditure guidance for 2026 [1][2]. Key highlights include:

• Record Q4 Profit
  : TSMC posted revenue of $33.73 billion and EPS of $19.50, beating estimates by 9% [3]
• Gross Margin Expansion
  : Gross margins hit 62.3%, with Q1 2026 guidance projecting further expansion to 63-65% [3]
• Aggressive Capex Hike
  : 2026 capital expenditure forecast set at
  $52-56 billion
  , up substantially from $40.9 billion in 2025 [1][2]
• Management Confidence
  : CEO C.C. Wei stated the spending increase came after months of checks with major customers and reflects
  confirmed AI-driven demand
  [1]

As market analyst Zavier Wong from eToro noted: “When you’ve got a business like TSMC spending at this level, investors should be prepared for sustained AI demand rather than a short-lived boom” [1].

China has begun creating purchase rules to allow domestic tech companies to buy NVIDIA’s H200 AI processors, according to Nikkei Asia [4]. This development:

• Suggests potential new demand avenues for NVIDIA in the Chinese market
• Represents a regulatory easing that could benefit NVIDIA’s data center revenue
• Comes despite ongoing US-China tensions over semiconductor exports

OpenAI has announced it is seeking US-based suppliers for planned robotics and AI devices, with partnerships already established with

[5]. This signals:

• Growing enterprise AI adoption across hardware platforms
• Sustained demand for high-performance AI chips across multiple applications
• Expansion beyond data centers into physical AI devices

During the earnings call, TSMC executives explicitly stated that

and that “the demand for semiconductors will continue to be very fundamental” [3]. Research firm IDC subsequently raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast for TSMC to (up from 22-26%), citing booming demand for AI server accelerators [2].

The TSMC results sparked broad-based strength across the semiconductor ecosystem:

Stock	Pre-Market Gain
Applied Materials (AMAT)	+6%
Lam Research (LRCX)	+6%
ASML Holding	+4%
AMD	+6.5%
Broadcom (AVGO)	+2%+
NVIDIA (NVDA)	+1%+

Wells Fargo’s upgrade of AMD as their top semiconductor pick further accelerated sector gains [3].

The pre-market tech rally is fundamentally driven by

from TSMC’s record results and aggressive capacity expansion plans. The semiconductor bellwether’s $52-56 billion capex plan signals long-term commitment from major AI players, while China’s developing purchase rules and OpenAI’s hardware expansion suggest multiple demand growth vectors. This confluence of factors has renewed investor confidence in the AI megatrend, lifting all major AI-linked tech stocks in pre-market trading.

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[1] Barchart - “Stocks Climb Before the Open as TSMC Reignites AI Optimism” (https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37056480/stocks-climb-before-the-open-as-tsmc-reignites-ai-optimism-u-s-economic-data-and-earnings-in-focus)

[2] Reuters - “TSMC smashes forecasts with record profit, flags more US investment” (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/tsmc-likely-post-fourth-quarter-profit-leap-driven-by-ai-boom-2026-01-14/)

[3] Wealth Creation Investing - “Daily Market Alert: Chip Stocks Surge on TSMC” (https://wealthcreationinvesting.com/investing-news/daily-market-alert-chip-stocks-surge-on-tsmc-china-moves-to-restrict-nvidia-wells-fargo-upgrades-amd-2/)

[4] Seeking Alpha - “China begins to create purchase rules for Nvidia H200 chips: report” (https://seekingalpha.com/news/4539378-china-begins-to-create-purchase-rules-for-nvidia-h200-chips-report)

[5] Bloomberg - “OpenAI Seeks US-Based Suppliers for Planned Robotics, AI Device Push” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/openai-seeks-us-based-suppliers-for-planned-robotics-ai-device-push)