Analysis of the Sustainability of Ctrip's Competitive Advantages in the Outbound Travel Market

Now I will conduct a comprehensive analysis for you based on the collected data.

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According to the “2024 China Outbound Travel Industry Development Trend Report” released by Fastdata, Ctrip.com maintains a dominant position in the outbound travel market among China’s OTA platforms.

[1]. This figure far exceeds that of other competitors, forming a clear oligopoly pattern.

Platform	Market Share	Year-on-Year Growth
Ctrip.com	48.3%	15%
Fliggy	29.6%	28%
Tongcheng Travel	10.9%	35%
Meituan	6.5%	42%
Others	4.7%	-5%

According to the forecast data from BOCOM International’s research report,

[2]. Ctrip Group owns major OTA brands such as Ctrip.com, Trip.com, and Qunar, forming a multi-brand matrix covering different segmented markets.

Ctrip’s Q3 2025 financial report shows that

, total bookings on its international OTA platform increased by approximately 60% year-on-year, and inbound travel bookings increased by over 100% year-on-year[3]. Net operating revenue in the third quarter reached RMB 18.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%[4].

• Q3 2025 Net Revenue: RMB 18.3 billion (YoY +16%)
• Accommodation Booking Revenue: RMB 8.0 billion (YoY +18%)
• Transportation Ticketing Revenue: RMB 6.3 billion (YoY +12%)
• Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 6.3 billion

Ctrip is deeply integrating AI into the entire tourism service chain through its “Smart Engine 3.0” strategy. At the 2026 Ctrip Global Tourism Partners Conference, Chen Ruiliang, Senior Vice President of Ctrip Group, pointed out that

. The platform is comprehensively moving towards intelligence and ecological collaboration around the four pillars of “consumer-side innovation, supply chain innovation, product-side innovation, and service innovation”[5].

• Recommendation system efficiency increased by 8%, and AI’s efficiency improvement effect is 20 times that of manual work
• In-trip service satisfaction increased by 22%, achieving minute-level response
• AI dual-state shopping guide system can undertake 80% of consultation and recommendation work
• AI video generation tool lowers the threshold for merchants’ content creation

Ctrip has built a global tourism ecosystem through strategic acquisitions:

• Acquisition of Qunar in 2015
  : Strengthened domestic flight and hotel booking services
• Acquisition of Skyscanner (UK) in 2016
  : Expanded international flight search business
• Investment in MakeMyTrip (India)
  : Laid out in emerging markets

Trip.com’s international business has performed strongly. In the third quarter, all international business segments performed robustly, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-on-year[6]. The European market has become an important growth driver, with bookings to Iceland and Norway doubling year-on-year, and bookings to Spain, Italy, and Germany increasing by approximately 70% year-on-year.

Ctrip is positioned in the mid-to-high-end tourism market, with its target customers mainly being consumers in first- and second-tier cities, primarily young white-collar workers and business professionals who are relatively price-insensitive[7]. This user structure provides Ctrip with higher average transaction value and stronger profitability.

, the State Administration for Market Regulation of China (SAMR) officially launched an antitrust investigation into Ctrip, accusing it of “suspected abuse of dominant market position and monopolistic practices”[8]. Following the news, Ctrip’s Hong Kong-listed shares plummeted by nearly 22%, and its US ADRs fell by 17%, marking the largest single-day drop since its listing in Hong Kong in 2021.

According to China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, companies found to have abused their dominant market position may face

. Based on Ctrip’s 2024 revenue, the potential fine range is RMB 490 million to RMB 4.9 billion (approximately USD 70 million to USD 700 million)[9].

Analysts pointed out that this investigation may stem from complaints from hotel operators about Ctrip’s pricing influence. Some hotel operators reported that Ctrip interferes with pricing and insists on requiring the platform to provide the lowest room rates[10]. Nomura believes that the investigation is unlikely to fundamentally shake Ctrip’s dominant position in China’s online travel market, but it may weaken its pricing influence over hotels, especially independent operators.

Although Ctrip maintains its leading position, its competitors are growing at a faster pace:

• Meituan Travel
  : 42% year-on-year growth, relying on local life traffic advantages
• Tongcheng Travel
  : 35% year-on-year growth, deeply cultivating the sinking market
• Fliggy
  : 28% year-on-year growth, backed by the Alibaba ecosystem

Social platforms such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu are also entering the travel booking field, diverting traffic from traditional OTAs.

, and social platforms are becoming important entry points for travel decision-making[11].

The antitrust investigation is a continuation of the stricter regulation since the second half of 2025:

• August 2025
  : Guizhou Provincial Market Regulation Bureau convened Ctrip, Tongcheng, Douyin, Meituan, etc. to discuss antitrust issues
• September 2025
  : Zhengzhou City interviewed Ctrip over suspected unfair restrictions on merchant transactions and pricing
• Recently
  : Yunnan Provincial Tourism Homestay Industry Association complained about Ctrip’s “forced exclusive cooperation” and arbitrary commission increases and other practices

This means that Ctrip needs to adjust its previous strategy that relied on its dominant market position and seek a more compliant development path.

Tourism Economics predicts that

[12]. The younger generation (post-80s, post-90s, post-00s) accounts for 77% of outbound tourists, with high acceptance of new technologies and greater willingness to explore niche destinations.

Ctrip’s data shows that the number of cities where users purchased attraction tickets in 2024 increased by 120 compared to 2019[13]. Emerging destinations such as Northern Europe, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia are rising rapidly, providing Ctrip with opportunities for differentiated services.

Benefiting from the dividend of visa-free entry policies and innovations in consumption scenarios, as of October 2025, the search popularity of inbound hotels on Ctrip’s platform increased by over 60% year-on-year[14]. Ctrip is benefiting from the two-way growth of both outbound and inbound travel.

1. Scale Effects and Network Effects
   : Ctrip’s oligopoly position stems from economies of scale and data advantages, which are not easily broken
2. Continuous Technology Investment
   : AI drives the transformation from “people seeking services” to “services finding people”, maintaining technological leadership
3. Improved International Layout
   : Skyscanner and Trip.com provide global service capabilities
4. Sound Financials
   : Q3 net profit margin reached 52%, with sufficient cash reserves and strong risk resistance

1. Regulatory Uncertainty
   : Antitrust investigations may change competition rules and weaken pricing influence
2. Intensified Competition
   : Meituan, Fliggy, and Tongcheng are growing rapidly, while Douyin and Xiaohongshu divert decision-making traffic
3. Changes in User Behavior
   : The increase in the proportion of independent travel and destination diversification put forward new requirements for the supply chain

Ctrip’s competitive advantages

, but it faces structural challenges in the long term. In the short term, the antitrust investigation will mainly affect stock prices and short-term profits, and will not shake Ctrip’s core business foundation. In the medium to long term, Ctrip needs to shift from “scale-driven” to “value-driven” and maintain its leading position through technological innovation and service differentiation.

Currently, Ctrip’s stock is trading at

, which is far lower than its historical average and that of comparable companies. The consensus target price of analysts is USD 81, representing a 32.4% upside from the current stock price[15]. The market has already priced in regulatory risks, and if the investigation results are mild, it may become a catalyst for valuation repair.

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[1] Fastdata, “2024 China Outbound Travel Industry Development Trend Report”
[2] BOCOM International Research Report (cited from Eastmoney, January 14, 2026)
[3] Trip.com Group 2025 Q3 Earnings Call
[4] Trip.com Group 2025 Q3 Financial Report (PRNewswire, November 17, 2025)
[5] Ctrip “Smart Engine 3.0” Partner Program (Caijing.com, January 6, 2026)
[6] Trip.com Group Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights (Yahoo Finance)
[7] SPDB International, “China OTA Industry Analysis Report: Sinking Market and Segmented Tracks Drive Sustainable Industry Growth” (May 2025)
[8] Investigation Announcement of the State Administration for Market Regulation (CNBC, January 15, 2026)
[9] Citi Analyst Forecast (Invezz, January 15, 2026)
[10] Nomura Analyst Commentary (Invezz, January 15, 2026)
[11] QuestMobile Data (cited from ITB China Tourism Trend Report 2025/26)
[12] Tourism Economics Forecast (Invezz, January 15, 2026)
[13] ITB China Tourism Trend Report 2025/26
[14] Ctrip Platform Data (cited from Yicai Global, December 2025)
[15] Company Profile Data (Yahoo Finance, January 15, 2026)